Chelyabinsk v Ural prediction · First League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

ChelyabinskDrawUral

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 10:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Ural 44%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ural are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Chelyabinsk 30%, draw 27%, Ural 44%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Chelyabinsk v UralBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Chelyabinsk win30%

Draw27%

Ural win44%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 10:00

RoundMatchday 15

VenueCentral Stadium (Chelyabinsk)

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Chelyabinsk

Ural

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · the Russian First League

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Ural	14	+12	25
12	Chelyabinsk	14	−5	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ural winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 23 Oct 04:26 · locked at kick-off

44% The market51%

Us44%

~~Market~~51%

We make Ural a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Chelyabinsk v Ural~~1.17 – 1.47

~~Form · last six in First League this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 15 v 25~~12 v 6

~~The market · Ural win~~51% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ural win The market, margin stripped

Published at 43%, 44% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chelyabinsk win	30%	23%	+7
Draw	27%	26%	+1
Ural win	44%	51%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	49%	47%	+2
Both teams to score	53%	50%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	74%	71%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	27%	26%	+1
Chelyabinsk or draw	56%	49%	+7
Chelyabinsk clean sheet	23%	–	–
Ural clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 8.0 10.0 7.7 3.8 1 7.9 12.7 8.8 4.4 2 4.9 7.0 5.1 2.5 3 2.8 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Chelyabinsk down, Ural across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,731 First League matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First League matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.1% of games this season, across 128 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Chelyabinsk at home: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Ural away: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.17 goals for Chelyabinsk, 1.47 for Ural. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~CHE 1–2 URA · URA 1–0 CHE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First League this season · since 5 Sept

CHELYABINSK

LDWDWL0–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 4–2 · 1–2

URAL

WDWWLL2–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nizhny Novgorod	15	+29	40
2	FC Sochi	14	+9	29
3	Torpedo Moskva	15	+15	28
4	Spartak Kostroma	14	+7	27
5	Veles	15	+2	27
6	Ural	14	+12	25
7	FC UFA	15	+3	21
8	Shinnik Yaroslavl	14	+4	20
9	Rotor Volgograd	15	+5	19
10	Volga Ulyanovsk	15	−2	18
11	Arsenal Tula	14	−11	16
12	Chelyabinsk	14	−5	15
13	Enisey	15	−14	14
14	KAMAZ	14	−7	13
15	Leningradets	14	−14	13
16	FK Neftekhimik	14	−11	12
17	Ska-khabarovsk	15	−10	10
18	Tekstilshchik	14	−12	10