Chelyabinsk v Shinnik Yaroslavl prediction · First League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

ChelyabinskDrawShinnik Yaroslavl

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Chelyabinsk 39%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Chelyabinsk are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Chelyabinsk 39%, draw 29%, Shinnik Yaroslavl 32%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Chelyabinsk v Shinnik YaroslavlBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Chelyabinsk win39%

Draw29%

Shinnik Yaroslavl win32%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 16

VenueCentral Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Chelyabinsk

Shinnik Yaroslavl

13Days since last match13

Last match: 18 Oct · the Russian First League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Shinnik Yaroslavl	14	+4	20
12	Chelyabinsk	14	−5	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · chelyabinsk winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Chelyabinsk a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Chelyabinsk v Shinnik Yaroslavl~~1.21 – 1.08

~~Form · last six in First League this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D4 L1

~~Table places · points 15 v 20~~12 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chelyabinsk win	39%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Shinnik Yaroslavl win	32%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	40%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	67%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	20%	–	–
Chelyabinsk or draw	68%	–	–
Chelyabinsk clean sheet	34%	–	–
Shinnik Yaroslavl clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.6%

0123450 10.9 10.3 5.9 2.2 1 11.7 13.6 7.0 2.6 2 7.4 7.8 4.2 3 3.0 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Chelyabinsk down, Shinnik Yaroslavl across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,735 First League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First League matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.8% of games this season, across 132 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Chelyabinsk at home: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Shinnik Yaroslavl away: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.21 goals for Chelyabinsk, 1.08 for Shinnik Yaroslavl. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~CHE 2–2 SHI · SHI 1–0 CHE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First League this season · since 5 Sept

CHELYABINSK

LDWDWL0–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 4–2 · 1–2

SHINNIK YAROSLAVL

DDLDWD2–2 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nizhny Novgorod	15	+29	40
2	FC Sochi	15	+11	32
3	Torpedo Moskva	15	+15	28
4	Spartak Kostroma	14	+7	27
5	Veles	15	+2	27
6	Ural	14	+12	25
7	FC UFA	15	+3	21
8	Shinnik Yaroslavl	14	+4	20
9	Rotor Volgograd	15	+5	19
10	Arsenal Tula	15	−10	19
11	Volga Ulyanovsk	15	−2	18
12	Chelyabinsk	14	−5	15
13	Enisey	15	−14	14
14	KAMAZ	15	−8	13
15	Leningradets	14	−14	13
16	FK Neftekhimik	14	−11	12
17	Ska-khabarovsk	15	−10	10
18	Tekstilshchik	15	−14	10