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Arsenal Tula v Spartak Kostroma

Arsenal Tula

3–2Full time

Spartak Kostroma

First League · FRI 9 OCT · Arsenal Stadium (Tula)

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 20:01

Arsenal Tula 3–2 Spartak Kostroma SPARTAK KOSTROMA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Spartak Kostroma win~~38%

~~The market said~~32%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.672

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.576

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay0 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Spartak Kostroma win at 38%.
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' Spartak Kostroma win: 38% at kick-off, 13% now
27′THE CALL SWINGS · 27' Arsenal Tula win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Spartak Kostroma win 13%)
45′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Daniil Plotnikov · Arsenal Tula
45′⚽ GOAL · 37' Arsenal Tula 2–2 Spartak Kostroma · Amur Kalmykov
45′⚽ GOAL · 38' Arsenal Tula 2–2 Spartak Kostroma · Oleg Nikiforenko
45′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Oleg Nikiforenko · Spartak Kostroma
45′HALF-TIME Arsenal Tula 2–2 Spartak Kostroma
49′SECOND HALF Arsenal Tula 2–2 Spartak Kostroma
50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Spartak Kostroma · On: David Karaev · Off: Oleg Nikiforenko
50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Arsenal Tula · On: Milos Brnovic · Off: Nikita Glushkov
57′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Arsenal Tula
66′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Spartak Kostroma
66′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Arsenal Tula
72′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Arsenal Tula · On: Aleksandr Alekhin · Off: Ivan Enin
72′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Arsenal Tula · On: David Davidyan · Off: Georgiy Uridia
72′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Spartak Kostroma · On: Kirill Chursin · Off: Nader Mohammadi
76′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Spartak Kostroma
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Arsenal Tula 3–2 Spartak Kostroma · Oleg Nikiforenko
78′⚽ GOAL · 76' Arsenal Tula 3–2 Spartak Kostroma
81′⚽ GOAL · 76' Arsenal Tula 3–2 Spartak Kostroma · Timur Melekestsev
90′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Spartak Kostroma · On: Sergey Bugriev · Off: Amur Kalmykov
90′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Spartak Kostroma · On: Ruslan Chervyakov · Off: Vladislav Kamilov
90′🟨 YELLOW · 93' Spartak Kostroma
FTArsenal Tula 3–2 Spartak Kostroma · Spartak Kostroma win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Arsenal Tula win33%

Draw29%

Spartak Kostroma win38%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 17:30

Venue · Arsenal Stadium (Tula)

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Arsenal Tula

3-4-1-2

42 A. Melikhov

77 D. Plotnikov

4 D. Penchikov

24 K. Gotsuk

22 G. Uridia

8 D. Shamkin

35 I. Enin

19 N. Glushkov

25 A. Biryukov

23 T. Melekestsev

11 R. Magomedov

Coach · Dmitriy Alenichev

Substitutes

36 · M. Levashov

18 · M. Tsulaya

5 · Y. Krashevskiy

82 · A. Alekhin

17 · I. Gorbunov

14 · M. Brnovic

10 · I. Zhigulev

9 · D. Davidyan

71 · A. Efremov

75 · T. Zhamaletdinov

Spartak Kostroma

4-4-2

68 M. Gaydash

5 D. Zhilmostnykh

6 N. Mohammadi

21 M. Bugarin

96 A. Mokhammad

18 V. Kamilov

17 D. Kaptilovich

22 A. Nemchenko

82 O. Nikiforenko

87 A. Spahic

90 A. Kalmykov

Coach · Andrey Ashikhmin

Substitutes

50 · E. Shamov

3 · S. Bugriev

8 · N. Demchenko

11 · D. Ghurtskaia

66 · M. Nikiforov

69 · K. Chursin

70 · R. Chervyakov

73 · D. Kirakosyan

77 · I. Meshcheryakov

10 · D. Karaev

13 · I. Rubtsov

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Arsenal Tula

3-4-1-2

42 A. Melikhov

77 D. Plotnikov

4 D. Penchikov

24 K. Gotsuk

22 G. Uridia

8 D. Shamkin

35 I. Enin

19 N. Glushkov

25 A. Biryukov

23 T. Melekestsev

11 R. Magomedov

Coach · Dmitriy Alenichev

Substitutes

36 · M. Levashov

18 · M. Tsulaya

5 · Y. Krashevskiy

82 · A. Alekhin

17 · I. Gorbunov

14 · M. Brnovic

10 · I. Zhigulev

9 · D. Davidyan

71 · A. Efremov

75 · T. Zhamaletdinov

Spartak Kostroma

4-4-2

68 M. Gaydash

5 D. Zhilmostnykh

6 N. Mohammadi

21 M. Bugarin

96 A. Mokhammad

18 V. Kamilov

17 D. Kaptilovich

22 A. Nemchenko

82 O. Nikiforenko

87 A. Spahic

90 A. Kalmykov

Coach · Andrey Ashikhmin

Substitutes

50 · E. Shamov

3 · S. Bugriev

8 · N. Demchenko

11 · D. Ghurtskaia

66 · M. Nikiforov

69 · K. Chursin

70 · R. Chervyakov

73 · D. Kirakosyan

77 · I. Meshcheryakov

10 · D. Karaev

13 · I. Rubtsov

Our number · spartak kostroma winPublished 9 Oct 17:35

38% The market32%

Us38%

~~Market~~32%

We make Spartak Kostroma a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.3.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Arsenal Tula win	33%	38%	−5
Draw	29%	30%	−1
Spartak Kostroma win	38%	32%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	43%	42%	+1
Both teams to score	49%	49%	0
Over 1.5 goals	70%	67%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	22%	23%	0
Arsenal Tula or draw	62%	68%	−6
Arsenal Tula clean sheet	29%	–	–
Spartak Kostroma clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 9.9 10.7 7.1 3.0 1 9.8 13.4 8.0 3.4 2 6.0 7.4 4.6 3 2.3 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Arsenal Tula down, Spartak Kostroma across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,712 First League matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

First League matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.4% of games this season, across 109 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Arsenal Tula at home: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Spartak Kostroma away: 1.17 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.15 goals for Arsenal Tula, 1.25 for Spartak Kostroma. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 9 Oct 17:03. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SPA 1–1 ARS · ARS 1–2 SPA

Form · last six in First League

ARSENAL TULA

WLDLDL2–1 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 0–3 · 2–2 · 1–3

SPARTAK KOSTROMA

LWWWWL0–3 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nizhny Novgorod	12	+22	31
2	Ural	12	+14	25
3	Spartak Kostroma	12	+6	24
4	FC Sochi	12	+7	23
5	Veles	13	+1	23
6	Torpedo Moskva	12	+12	21
7	FC UFA	12	+3	18
8	Rotor Volgograd	12	+6	17
9	Shinnik Yaroslavl	12	+2	16
10	Volga Ulyanovsk	13	−3	14
11	Enisey	12	−5	14
12	Arsenal Tula	12	−10	13
13	Leningradets	12	−10	13
14	Chelyabinsk	12	−6	12
15	FK Neftekhimik	12	−8	12
16	KAMAZ	12	−8	9
17	Tekstilshchik	12	−11	7
18	Ska-khabarovsk	12	−12	6