Arsenal Tula v KAMAZ prediction · First League

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Arsenal Tula 4–3 KAMAZ ARSENAL TULA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Arsenal Tula win~~38%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.577

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.390

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay19 notes · 33 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Arsenal Tula win at 38%.
6′Much as we predicted: Arsenal Tula was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 37–30–32
6′🟨 YELLOW · 4' KAMAZ
34′THE CALL SWINGS · 34' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Arsenal Tula win 35%)
43′We published Arsenal Tula at 38%. Our model now makes it 73%. 1–0 · 73–20–7
43′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 1–0 · 73–20–7
43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Arsenal Tula 1–0 KAMAZ
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Arsenal Tula win: 38% at kick-off, 73% now
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Arsenal Tula win is now our likeliest result at 73% (was Draw 42%)
45′HALF-TIME Arsenal Tula 1–0 KAMAZ
46′SECOND HALF Arsenal Tula 1–0 KAMAZ
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' KAMAZ · On: Artem Sukhanov · Off: Roman Manuylov
49′Timur Melekestsev scores for Arsenal Tula on 42′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 74–20–6
51′We published Arsenal Tula at 38%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–20–6
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Arsenal Tula 1–1 KAMAZ
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Arsenal Tula win: 38% at kick-off, 27% now
54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Arsenal Tula win 75%)
55′KAMAZ score on 52′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 27–49–24
56′We said Arsenal Tula at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 26%. 1–1 · 26–50–24
57′We said Arsenal Tula at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 5%. 1–2 · 5–21–74
57′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 5–21–74
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Arsenal Tula 1–2 KAMAZ
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Arsenal Tula win: 38% at kick-off, 5% now
57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' KAMAZ win is now our likeliest result at 74% (was Draw 50%)
58′KAMAZ find the net on 56′. 1–2. 1–2 · 5–20–74
61′We said Arsenal Tula at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–20–76
68′4 goals already, more than the 2.3 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 0–3–97
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Arsenal Tula 1–3 KAMAZ
69′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Arsenal Tula · On: Oleg Isaenko · Off: Georgiy Uridia
69′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Arsenal Tula · On: Igor Gorbunov · Off: Nikita Glushkov
70′GOAL DISALLOWED · 70' KAMAZ
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Arsenal Tula 1–3 KAMAZ
73′Artem Sukhanov scores for KAMAZ on 65′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 0–2–98
73′SUBSTITUTION · 63' KAMAZ · On: Mukhammad Sultonov · Off: Evgeniy Voronin
73′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Oleg Isaenko · Arsenal Tula
73′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Arsenal Tula · On: David Davidyan · Off: Daniil Plotnikov
73′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Arsenal Tula · On: Artem Biryukov · Off: Daniil Shamkin
79′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 2–3 · 1–11–88
79′Arsenal Tula score on 80′ to make it 2–3. 2–3 · 1–11–88
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Arsenal Tula 2–3 KAMAZ
79′SUBSTITUTION · 75' KAMAZ · On: Maksim Bogdanets · Off: Merabi Uridia
79′SUBSTITUTION · 75' KAMAZ · On: Ilya Moseychuk · Off: Vitaliy Semenov
84′6 goals already, more than the 2.3 we expected for the whole match. 3–3 · 7–86–7
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Arsenal Tula 3–3 KAMAZ
84′THE CALL SWINGS · 84' Draw is now our likeliest result at 86% (was KAMAZ win 93%)
89′Arsenal Tula level it on 88′ through Milos Brnovic. 3–3. 3–3 · 4–91–4
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Arsenal Tula · On: Timur Zhamaletdinov · Off: Rashid Magomedov
96′We published Arsenal Tula at 38%. Our model now makes it 99%. 4–3 · 99–1–0
96′That is 7, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 4–3 · 99–1–0
96′⚽ GOAL · 90+6' Arsenal Tula 4–3 KAMAZ
96′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+6' Arsenal Tula win: 38% at kick-off, 99% now
96′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+6' Arsenal Tula win is now our likeliest result at 99% (was Draw 97%)
FTFULL TIME Arsenal Tula 4–3 KAMAZ
FTArsenal Tula 4–3 KAMAZ · Arsenal Tula win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Arsenal Tula are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Arsenal Tula 38%, draw 29%, KAMAZ 33%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Arsenal Tula v KAMAZBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Arsenal Tula win38%

Draw29%

KAMAZ win33%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 15

VenueArsenal Stadium (Tula)

Line-ups

Arsenal Tula

KAMAZ

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Arsenal Tula

KAMAZ

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · the Russian First League

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Arsenal Tula	14	−11	16
14	KAMAZ	14	−7	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Arsenal Tula

Formation not confirmed

42 A. Melikhov

22 G. Uridia

8 D. Shamkin

77 D. Plotnikov

4 D. Penchikov

23 T. Melekestsev

11 R. Magomedov

24 K. Gotsuk

19 N. Glushkov

14 M. Brnović

82 A. Alekhin

Coach · D. Alenichev

Substitutes

10 · I. Zhigulev

25 · A. Biryukov

31 · K. Bolshakov

9 · D. Davidyan

71 · A. Efremov

35 · I. Enin

17 · I. Gorbunov

44 · O. Isaenko

45 · N. Karmaev

5 · Y. Krashevskiy

36 · M. Levashov

75 · T. Zhamaletdinov

KAMAZ

Formation not confirmed

31 A. Anisimov

99 R. Akbashev

15 M. Burko

83 M. Laykin

27 R. Manuylov

5 S. Ratnikov

79 V. Semenov

67 R. Tkachuk

25 M. Uridia

37 E. Voronin

10 R. Zashchepkin

Coach · A. Khazov

Substitutes

30 · E. Zamerets

28 · M. Sultonov

76 · A. Sukhanov

22 · A. Solodukhin

13 · N. Rybalchenko

9 · I. Moseychuk

11 · A. Kokotun

6 · T. Kalistratov

65 · I. Gulko

8 · E. Dolgopolov

19 · M. Bogdanets

Our number · arsenal tula winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

38% The market49%

Us38%

~~Market~~49%

We make Arsenal Tula a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Arsenal Tula v KAMAZ~~1.22 – 1.12

~~Form · last six in First League this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 16 v 13~~11 v 14

~~The market · Arsenal Tula win~~49% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Arsenal Tula win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Arsenal Tula win	38%	49%	−11
Draw	29%	25%	+4
KAMAZ win	33%	26%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	41%	47%	−6
Both teams to score	48%	50%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	68%	71%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	21%	26%	−5
Arsenal Tula or draw	67%	74%	−7
Arsenal Tula clean sheet	33%	–	–
KAMAZ clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%

0123450 10.5 10.2 6.0 2.3 1 11.2 13.5 7.2 2.7 2 7.2 7.9 4.4 3 3.0 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Arsenal Tula down, KAMAZ across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,731 First League matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: First League matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.1% of games this season, across 128 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Arsenal Tula at home: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). KAMAZ away: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for Arsenal Tula, 1.12 for KAMAZ. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 8

~~Both scored~~3 of 8

~~Last meetings~~KAM 1–1 ARS · ARS 1–1 KAM · KAM 2–1 ARS · ARS 1–0 KAM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in First League this season · since 29 Aug

ARSENAL TULA

DLDLWL2–2 · 0–3 · 2–2 · 1–3 · 3–2 · 0–2

KAMAZ

WLDWDW1–0 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 3–3 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nizhny Novgorod	14	+28	37
2	FC Sochi	14	+9	29
3	Torpedo Moskva	15	+15	28
4	Spartak Kostroma	14	+7	27
5	Veles	15	+2	27
6	Ural	14	+12	25
7	FC UFA	14	+4	21
8	Shinnik Yaroslavl	14	+4	20
9	Rotor Volgograd	15	+5	19
10	Volga Ulyanovsk	15	−2	18
11	Arsenal Tula	14	−11	16
12	Chelyabinsk	14	−5	15
13	Enisey	15	−14	14
14	KAMAZ	14	−7	13
15	Leningradets	14	−14	13
16	FK Neftekhimik	14	−11	12
17	Ska-khabarovsk	15	−10	10
18	Tekstilshchik	14	−12	10