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Volna Nizhegorodskaya v Dinamo St. Petersburg

Volna Nizhegorodskaya

1–1After penalties

Dinamo St. Petersburg

Cup · WED 14 OCT · Zavolzhskiy Stadium

After 90 minutesGraded 14 Oct 15:01

Volna Nizhegorodskaya 1–1 Dinamo St. Petersburg DINAMO ST. PETERSBURG WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Dinamo St. Petersburg win~~37%

~~The market said~~33%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.730

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.720

Every number we publish is for the 90 minutes, so this match is graded on 1–1, the score after 90 minutes. Volna Nizhegorodskaya won 4–2 on penalties.

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 34 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Dinamo St. Petersburg win at 37%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Dinamo St. Petersburg 37% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 33–30–38
1′KICK-OFF Volna Nizhegorodskaya v Dinamo St. Petersburg
30′THE CALL SWINGS · 30' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Dinamo St. Petersburg win 33%)
45′HALF-TIME Volna Nizhegorodskaya 0–0 Dinamo St. Petersburg
45′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Dinamo St. Petersburg · On: dmitriy borodin · Off: andrey orlov
45′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Dinamo St. Petersburg · On: Danila Smirnov · Off: Mikhail Yakovlev
46′SECOND HALF Volna Nizhegorodskaya 0–0 Dinamo St. Petersburg
51′SECOND HALF Volna Nizhegorodskaya 0–0 Dinamo St. Petersburg
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Dinamo St. Petersburg win: 37% at kick-off, 27% now
52′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Volna Nizhegorodskaya · On: Denis Kaykov · Off: Ivan Savitskiy
52′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Volna Nizhegorodskaya · On: Dmitrii kalaida · Off: Artem Yamangulov
56′We said Dinamo St. Petersburg at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 77%. 0–1 · 4–19–77
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Volna Nizhegorodskaya 0–1 Dinamo St. Petersburg
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Dinamo St. Petersburg win: 37% at kick-off, 77% now
56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Dinamo St. Petersburg win is now our likeliest result at 77% (was Draw 19%)
57′The goal count is tracking the 2.2 we expected. 0–1 · 4–19–78
58′56′ and it is 0–1: Dinamo St. Petersburg have scored. 0–1 · 4–18–78
61′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Dinamo St. Petersburg · On: Pavel Kireenko · Off: Rizvan Umarov
62′We said Dinamo St. Petersburg at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
65′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Dinamo St. Petersburg
68′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Ilya Vorotnikov · Dinamo St. Petersburg
68′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Volna Nizhegorodskaya · On: Nikita Chugunov · Off: Kirill Bogdanets
69′We said Dinamo St. Petersburg at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 17–64–19
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Volna Nizhegorodskaya 1–1 Dinamo St. Petersburg
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Dinamo St. Petersburg win: 37% at kick-off, 19% now
69′THE CALL SWINGS · 69' Draw is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Dinamo St. Petersburg win 19%)
71′Volna Nizhegorodskaya find the net on 69′. 1–1. 1–1 · 16–67–17
71′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Volna Nizhegorodskaya · On: Pavel Popov · Off: Mikhail Zabotkin
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Dinamo St. Petersburg win: 37% at kick-off, 17% now
76′We said Dinamo St. Petersburg at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 13–73–14
76′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Dinamo St. Petersburg · On: Ziyaisov Artem · Off: Dmitriy Shilov
76′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Volna Nizhegorodskaya
80′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Evgeniy Ragulkin · Volna Nizhegorodskaya
80′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Volna Nizhegorodskaya · On: ivan severyanov · Off: Evgeniy Ragulkin
82′We said Dinamo St. Petersburg at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 8–83–9
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Dinamo St. Petersburg win: 37% at kick-off, 7% now
86′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Dinamo St. Petersburg · On: Danila Ezhkov · Off: Omar Popov
89′We said Dinamo St. Petersburg at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–4
90′Pavel Popov scores for Volna Nizhegorodskaya on 69′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 3–93–4
90′🟨 YELLOW · 91' Dinamo St. Petersburg
90′🟨 YELLOW · 92' Volna Nizhegorodskaya
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' novel torosyan · Dinamo St. Petersburg
90′🟨 YELLOW · 91' Nikita Chugunov · Volna Nizhegorodskaya
90′PENALTY MISSED · 2' Danila Smirnov · Dinamo St. Petersburg
FTFULL TIME Volna Nizhegorodskaya 1–1 Dinamo St. Petersburg
FTVolna Nizhegorodskaya 1–1 Dinamo St. Petersburg after 90 minutes, as graded · Dinamo St. Petersburg win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on Volna Nizhegorodskaya v Dinamo St. PetersburgBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 11:32 · locked at kick-off

Volna Nizhegorodskaya win32%

Draw30%

Dinamo St. Petersburg win37%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 12:00

VenueZavolzhskiy Stadium

Line-ups

Volna Nizhegorodskaya

4-2-3-1

Dinamo St. Petersburg

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Volna Nizhegorodskaya

Dinamo St. Petersburg

35Days since last match35

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Volna Nizhegorodskaya	3	+4	9
12	Dinamo St. Petersburg	3	+3	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Volna Nizhegorodskaya

4-2-3-1

1 Ivan Migunov

77 E. Gubiev

30 Aleksandr Volkov

73 A. Yamangulov

99 I. Savitskiy

76 Maksim Gavrilov

14 Aleksey Titkov

11 Evgeniy Ragulkin

7 Artemiy Gunko

10 K. Bogdanets

8 M. Zabotkin

Coach · A. Proshin

Substitutes

4 · Artem Abramov

91 · Nikita Chugunov

21 · D. Kaykov

6 · R. Kazakov

88 · A. Popovich

92 · P. Popov

22 · D. Rebrov

90 · I. Severyanov

47 · Aleksandr Shashkov

17 · D. Kalayda

19 · Nikita Romanov

Dinamo St. Petersburg

Formation not confirmed

31 Artem Meshalkin

28 Mikhail Mansurov

39 P. Gorbachev

77 artur koshman

88 novel torosyan

9 Dmitriy Shilov

24 andrey orlov

37 I. Vorotnikov

14 R. Umarov

18 O. Popov

20 M. Yakovlev

Coach · Aleksandr Fomichev

Substitutes

99 · N. Khlusov

26 · P. Kireenko

95 · G. Korolev

52 · V. Khabarov

15 · Aleksandr Masalov

5 · M. Polkovnikov

55 · D. Smirnov

76 · A. Ziyaisov

23 · D. Borodin

11 · Danila Yezkov

41 · dmitriy kuroshev

Our number · dinamo st. petersburg winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 11:32 · locked at kick-off

37% The market33%

Us37%

~~Market~~33%

We make Dinamo St. Petersburg a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Volna Nizhegorodskaya v Dinamo St. Petersburg~~1.03 – 1.13

~~Last six in Cup~~W3 D2 L1 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 9 v 7~~4 v 12

~~The market · Dinamo St. Petersburg win~~33% · ours 37%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · dinamo st. petersburg win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 33% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Volna Nizhegorodskaya win	32%	36%	−4
Draw	30%	31%	0
Dinamo St. Petersburg win	37%	33%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	37%	44%	−7
Both teams to score	44%	51%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	64%	69%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	17%	25%	−8
Volna Nizhegorodskaya or draw	63%	67%	−4
Volna Nizhegorodskaya clean sheet	32%	–	–
Dinamo St. Petersburg clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.9%

0123450 12.0 12.6 7.3 2.8 1 11.5 13.9 7.6 2.8 2 6.2 6.9 3.9 3 2.1 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Volna Nizhegorodskaya down, Dinamo St. Petersburg across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates every club on one scale from 407,336 league, cup and continental matches in 638 leagues up to 14 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Volna Nizhegorodskaya play in the Second League - Group 3, Dinamo St. Petersburg in the Second League - Group 2.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Volna Nizhegorodskaya are at home.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two in this competition, so this step adds nothing.

What the model expects

1.03 goals for Volna Nizhegorodskaya, 1.13 for Dinamo St. Petersburg. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in Cup since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in Cup

VOLNA NIZHEGORODSKAYA

DDLWWW0–0 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 2–0

DINAMO ST. PETERSBURG

WLLWDW3–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kaluga	3	+7	9
2	FC Rostov	3	+7	9
3	Luki-Energiya	3	+5	9
4	Volna Nizhegorodskaya	3	+4	9
5	Spartak Moscow	3	+6	7
6	Chertanovo Moscow	3	+5	7
7	Volgar Astrakhan	3	+5	7
8	Dinamo Barnaul	4	+4	7
9	Murom	3	+4	7
10	Zenit	3	+4	7
11	Dinamo Kirov	3	+3	7
12	Dinamo St. Petersburg	3	+3	7
13	Znamya Noginsk	4	−1	7
14	Dynamo	3	+3	6
15	Spartak Kostroma	2	+3	6
16	Dinamo Stavropol	3	+1	6
17	FK Sokol Saratov	3	+2	5
18	Druzhba	3	+1	5
19	Krylia Sovetov	3	+1	5
20	FC Krasnodar	4	−1	5
21	Akron	4	−3	5
22	Kristall MEZ	2	+3	4
23	FC Tosno	2	+3	4
24	Torpedo Vladimir	2	+3	4
25	Amkar	2	+2	4
26	Dinamo Vologda	2	+2	4
27	Nosta	2	+1	4
28	Fakel	4	0	4
29	Ryazan	3	0	4
30	KDV	3	−1	4
31	FC Orenburg	3	−1	4
32	2Drots	3	−1	4
33	Akhmat	3	−2	4
34	Ska-khabarovsk	1	+4	3
35	Izberbash	2	+3	3
36	Shinnik Yaroslavl	1	+2	3
37	Chelyabinsk	2	+1	3
38	Nizhny Novgorod	1	+1	3
39	Tekstilshchik	1	+1	3
40	Rodina Moskva	3	0	3
41	FC 10	2	0	3
42	Torpedo Miass	2	0	3
43	Broke Boys	2	−1	3
44	Ilpar	2	−1	3
45	Lokomotiv	4	−1	3
46	SKA Rostov	2	0	2
47	FK Spartak Tambov	2	0	2
48	Baltika	3	−1	2
49	Rubin	3	−5	2
50	Alaniya Vladikavkaz	1	0	1
51	Novosibirsk	1	0	1
52	Zenit Penza	1	0	1
53	Enisey	1	0	1
54	FK Neftekhimik	1	0	1
55	Leningradets	1	0	1
56	Mashuk-KMV	1	0	1
57	Saturn Ramenskoye	1	0	1
58	Shumbrat	1	0	1
59	Angust Nazran	1	0	1
60	Dinamo Vladivostok	1	0	1
61	Metallurg Lipetsk	1	0	1
62	Volga Ulyanovsk	1	0	1
63	Avangard Kursk	2	−1	1
64	Astrakhan	2	−1	1
65	Spartak Nalchik	2	−3	1
66	CSKA Moscow	3	−3	1
67	Cherepovets	2	−3	1
68	Dinamo Makhachkala	3	−4	1
69	Irtysh Omsk	2	−5	1
70	Temp Barnaul	1	−1	0
71	Khimik Dzerzhinsk	1	−1	0
72	Kosmos Dolgoprudny	1	−1	0
73	Kristall	1	−1	0
74	Anri Vladivostok	1	−1	0
75	Bomik	1	−1	0
76	Izhevsk	1	−1	0
77	Nart Cherkessk	1	−1	0
78	Tyumen	1	−1	0
79	Ural	1	−1	0
80	Zvezda St. Petersburg	1	−1	0
81	Arsenal Tula	1	−1	0
82	FC UFA	1	−1	0
83	KAMAZ	1	−1	0
84	Metallurg Asha	1	−1	0
85	Veles	1	−1	0
86	Dinamo Bryansk	1	−2	0
87	FC Sochi	1	−2	0
88	Kvant	1	−2	0
89	Orel	1	−2	0
90	Pobeda	1	−2	0
91	Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod	1	−2	0
92	Rotor Volgograd	1	−2	0
93	Torpedo Moskva	1	−2	0
94	Tver	1	−2	0
95	Chita	1	−3	0
96	Kirovets Voskhozhdenie	1	−3	0
97	Salyut-Belgorod	1	−3	0
98	Strogino	1	−3	0
99	Anzhi	1	−4	0
100	Iskra Smolensk	1	−5	0