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Volga Ulyanovsk v Murom

Volga Ulyanovsk

0–0After penalties

Murom

Cup · WED 14 OCT · Trud Stadium (Ulyanovsk)

After 90 minutesGraded 14 Oct 17:54

Volga Ulyanovsk 0–0 Murom VOLGA ULYANOVSK WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Volga Ulyanovsk win~~61%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.997

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.862

Every number we publish is for the 90 minutes, so this match is graded on 0–0, the score after 90 minutes. Volga Ulyanovsk won 4–3 on penalties.

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Volga Ulyanovsk win at 61%.
2′KICK-OFF Volga Ulyanovsk v Murom
3′Much as we predicted: Volga Ulyanovsk was 61% before kick-off and our model makes it 61% now. 0–0 · 61–23–17
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Volga Ulyanovsk win: 61% at kick-off, 51% now
40′We said Volga Ulyanovsk at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–34–16
43′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Murom
45′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Umar Magomedbekov · Murom
45′HALF-TIME Volga Ulyanovsk 0–0 Murom
46′SECOND HALF Volga Ulyanovsk 0–0 Murom
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Murom · On: Islamitdin Abdullaev · Off: Ruslan Bolov
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Volga Ulyanovsk · On: Andrey Nikitin · Off: Luka Bagatelia
50′We said Volga Ulyanovsk at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–40–16
57′We expected about 2.7 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 40–45–15
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Volga Ulyanovsk win: 61% at kick-off, 40% now
57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Volga Ulyanovsk win 40%)
58′We said Volga Ulyanovsk at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–46–15
65′We said Volga Ulyanovsk at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–53–13
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Volga Ulyanovsk win: 61% at kick-off, 30% now
70′We said Volga Ulyanovsk at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–59–12
71′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Murom · On: Nikita Kozlovskiy · Off: Maksim Andreev
71′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Volga Ulyanovsk · On: Kirill Folmer · Off: Igor Gershun
71′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Volga Ulyanovsk · On: Aleksandr Saplinov · Off: Ignat Kasyanov
74′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Volga Ulyanovsk · On: Maks Dziov · Off: Aydar Khabibullin
75′We said Volga Ulyanovsk at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–66–10
77′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Murom · On: Aleksey Evseev · Off: danil shatalov
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Volga Ulyanovsk win: 61% at kick-off, 20% now
79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Murom
80′We said Volga Ulyanovsk at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 17%. 0–0 · 17–75–7
82′We said Volga Ulyanovsk at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–80–6
83′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Dmitriy Rakhmanov · Volga Ulyanovsk
83′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Volga Ulyanovsk · On: Vadim Livadnov · Off: Dmitriy Rakhmanov
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Volga Ulyanovsk win: 61% at kick-off, 11% now
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN Volga Ulyanovsk win: 61% at kick-off, 0% now
84′SUBSTITUTION · 94' Murom · On: shamil saaduev · Off: Umar Magomedbekov
86′We said Volga Ulyanovsk at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–86–4
86′We said Volga Ulyanovsk at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 0%. 0–0 · 0–100–0
90′PENALTY MISSED · 100' Volga Ulyanovsk
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Volga Ulyanovsk win: 61% at kick-off, 6% now
90′PENALTY MISSED · 101' Murom
FTFULL TIME Volga Ulyanovsk 0–0 Murom
FTVolga Ulyanovsk 0–0 Murom after 90 minutes, as graded · Volga Ulyanovsk win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on Volga Ulyanovsk v MuromBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 14:19 · locked at kick-off

Volga Ulyanovsk win61%

Draw23%

Murom win16%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 15:00

VenueTrud Stadium (Ulyanovsk)

Line-ups

Volga Ulyanovsk

4-2-3-1

Murom

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Volga Ulyanovsk

Murom

35Days since last match35

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Murom	3	+4	7
62	Volga Ulyanovsk	1	0	1

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Volga Ulyanovsk

4-2-3-1

1 R. Shakerov

30 A. Khabibullin

4 K. Ibragimov

20 K. Kovalev

3 O. Krasilnichenko

22 Denis Rakhmanov

99 A. Kostin

77 L. Bagatelia

17 I. Gershun

60 I. Kasyanov

11 A. Khashkulov

Coach · A. Grishchenko

Substitutes

95 · A. Khodanovich

50 · A. Bykov

88 · M. Dziov

5 · D. Stepanov

9 · K. Folmer

10 · R. Shagiakhmetov

76 · V. Livadnov

55 · Aleksandr Saplinov

8 · Denis Rakhmanov

7 · A. Nikitin

84 · A. Gutsa

15 · David kokoev

Murom

4-4-2

85 N. Zheymo

15 Evgeny Livadnov

2 Ruslan Babayan

55 A. Saidov

23 Umar Magomedbekov

50 Denis Faizullin

22 F. Dvoretskov

10 M. Andreev

89 danil shatalov

9 G. Abdullaev

88 R. Bolov

Coach · S. Miroshnichenko

Substitutes

81 · kirill roshchin

77 · I. Abdullaev

91 · nikita zavjalov

21 · N. Kozlovskiy

8 · S. Saaduev

7 · Fagomich rasil asaidulin

94 · A. Evseev

Our number · volga ulyanovsk winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 14:19 · locked at kick-off

61% The market53%

Us61%

~~Market~~53%

We make Volga Ulyanovsk a 61% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Volga Ulyanovsk v Murom~~1.87 – 0.85

~~Last six in Cup~~W2 D3 L1 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 1 v 7~~62 v 9

~~The market · Volga Ulyanovsk win~~53% · ours 61%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Volga Ulyanovsk win	61%	53%	+8
Draw	23%	27%	−4
Murom win	16%	20%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	51%	43%	+8
Both teams to score	49%	46%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	76%	67%	+8
Over 3.5 goals	29%	23%	+5
Volga Ulyanovsk or draw	84%	80%	+4
Volga Ulyanovsk clean sheet	43%	–	–
Murom clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.1%

0123450 7.0 5.3 2.4 1 12.1 10.8 4.4 2 11.6 9.8 4.1 3 7.2 6.1 2.6 4 3.4 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Volga Ulyanovsk down, Murom across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates every club on one scale from 407,336 league, cup and continental matches in 638 leagues up to 14 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Volga Ulyanovsk play in the First League, Murom in the Second League - Group 2.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Volga Ulyanovsk are at home.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two in this competition, so this step adds nothing.

What the model expects

1.87 goals for Volga Ulyanovsk, 0.85 for Murom. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in Cup since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in Cup

VOLGA ULYANOVSK

WWDLDD2–0 · 7–0 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 0–0

MUROM

DDLDWW2–2 · 2–2 · 2–3 · 0–0 · 3–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kaluga	3	+7	9
2	FC Rostov	3	+7	9
3	Luki-Energiya	3	+5	9
4	Volna Nizhegorodskaya	3	+4	9
5	Spartak Moscow	3	+6	7
6	Chertanovo Moscow	3	+5	7
7	Volgar Astrakhan	3	+5	7
8	Dinamo Barnaul	4	+4	7
9	Murom	3	+4	7
10	Zenit	3	+4	7
11	Dinamo Kirov	3	+3	7
12	Dinamo St. Petersburg	3	+3	7
13	Znamya Noginsk	4	−1	7
14	Dynamo	3	+3	6
15	Spartak Kostroma	2	+3	6
16	Dinamo Stavropol	3	+1	6
17	FK Sokol Saratov	3	+2	5
18	Druzhba	3	+1	5
19	Krylia Sovetov	3	+1	5
20	FC Krasnodar	4	−1	5
21	Akron	4	−3	5
22	Kristall MEZ	2	+3	4
23	FC Tosno	2	+3	4
24	Torpedo Vladimir	2	+3	4
25	Amkar	2	+2	4
26	Dinamo Vologda	2	+2	4
27	Nosta	2	+1	4
28	Fakel	4	0	4
29	Ryazan	3	0	4
30	KDV	3	−1	4
31	FC Orenburg	3	−1	4
32	2Drots	3	−1	4
33	Akhmat	3	−2	4
34	Ska-khabarovsk	1	+4	3
35	Izberbash	2	+3	3
36	Shinnik Yaroslavl	1	+2	3
37	Chelyabinsk	2	+1	3
38	Nizhny Novgorod	1	+1	3
39	Tekstilshchik	1	+1	3
40	Rodina Moskva	3	0	3
41	FC 10	2	0	3
42	Torpedo Miass	2	0	3
43	Broke Boys	2	−1	3
44	Ilpar	2	−1	3
45	Lokomotiv	4	−1	3
46	SKA Rostov	2	0	2
47	FK Spartak Tambov	2	0	2
48	Baltika	3	−1	2
49	Rubin	3	−5	2
50	Alaniya Vladikavkaz	1	0	1
51	Novosibirsk	1	0	1
52	Zenit Penza	1	0	1
53	Enisey	1	0	1
54	FK Neftekhimik	1	0	1
55	Leningradets	1	0	1
56	Mashuk-KMV	1	0	1
57	Saturn Ramenskoye	1	0	1
58	Shumbrat	1	0	1
59	Angust Nazran	1	0	1
60	Dinamo Vladivostok	1	0	1
61	Metallurg Lipetsk	1	0	1
62	Volga Ulyanovsk	1	0	1
63	Avangard Kursk	2	−1	1
64	Astrakhan	2	−1	1
65	Spartak Nalchik	2	−3	1
66	CSKA Moscow	3	−3	1
67	Cherepovets	2	−3	1
68	Dinamo Makhachkala	3	−4	1
69	Irtysh Omsk	2	−5	1
70	Temp Barnaul	1	−1	0
71	Khimik Dzerzhinsk	1	−1	0
72	Kosmos Dolgoprudny	1	−1	0
73	Kristall	1	−1	0
74	Anri Vladivostok	1	−1	0
75	Bomik	1	−1	0
76	Izhevsk	1	−1	0
77	Nart Cherkessk	1	−1	0
78	Tyumen	1	−1	0
79	Ural	1	−1	0
80	Zvezda St. Petersburg	1	−1	0
81	Arsenal Tula	1	−1	0
82	FC UFA	1	−1	0
83	KAMAZ	1	−1	0
84	Metallurg Asha	1	−1	0
85	Veles	1	−1	0
86	Dinamo Bryansk	1	−2	0
87	FC Sochi	1	−2	0
88	Kvant	1	−2	0
89	Orel	1	−2	0
90	Pobeda	1	−2	0
91	Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod	1	−2	0
92	Rotor Volgograd	1	−2	0
93	Torpedo Moskva	1	−2	0
94	Tver	1	−2	0
95	Chita	1	−3	0
96	Kirovets Voskhozhdenie	1	−3	0
97	Salyut-Belgorod	1	−3	0
98	Strogino	1	−3	0
99	Anzhi	1	−4	0
100	Iskra Smolensk	1	−5	0