Spartak Moscow v Rubin
Spartak MoscowRubinCup · WED 28 OCT · Lukoil Arena
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Spartak Moscow are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Spartak Moscow 57%, draw 25%, Rubin 17%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 47%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off
Spartak Moscow win57%Rubin win17%Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 17:30
RoundGroup stage · matchday 5
VenueLukoil Arena
Match timeline
All events
Spartak MoscowMINRubinEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Spartak Moscow
Rubin
Last match: 18 Oct · the Russian Premier League
Last match: 24 Oct · the Russian Premier League
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Spartak Moscow a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 63%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–0.8.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 63% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spartak Moscow win | 57% | 63% | −6 |
| Draw | 25% | 23% | +2 |
| Rubin win | 17% | 14% | +3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 51% | −4 |
| Both teams to score | 47% | 48% | −1 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | 73% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | 31% | −5 |
| Spartak Moscow or draw | 83% | 86% | −3 |
| Spartak Moscow clean sheet | 44% | – | – |
| Rubin clean sheet | 18% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 2 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
Last 10 meetingsEvery competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · Cup this season · since 4 Aug
SPARTAK MOSCOW
RUBIN