Spartak Kostroma v Chelyabinsk prediction · Cup

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 17:00

Spartak Kostroma 1–0 Chelyabinsk SPARTAK KOSTROMA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Spartak Kostroma win~~49%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.396

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.495

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Spartak Kostroma win at 49%.
3′Little has changed for our model: Spartak Kostroma 49% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 49–25–26
3′KICK-OFF Spartak Kostroma v Chelyabinsk
4′⚽ GOAL · 4' Spartak Kostroma 0–0 Chelyabinsk
5′Spartak Kostroma find the net on 4′. 0–0. 0–0 · 48–26–26
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Spartak Kostroma 1–0 Chelyabinsk
45′⚽ GOAL · 43' Spartak Kostroma 0–0 Chelyabinsk
45′HALF-TIME Spartak Kostroma 0–0 Chelyabinsk
46′SECOND HALF Spartak Kostroma 0–0 Chelyabinsk
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Spartak Kostroma 1–0 Chelyabinsk
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Spartak Kostroma · On: Oleg Nikiforenko · Off: Nikita Demchenko Corrected
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Chelyabinsk · On: Dmitriy Kamenshchikov · Off: Gleb Miroshnichenko Corrected
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Chelyabinsk · On: Ramazan Gadzhimuradov · Off: Baba N'Diaye Corrected
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Chelyabinsk · On: Matvey Urvantsev · Off: Luis Kacorri Corrected
49′⚽ GOAL · 48' Spartak Kostroma 1–0 Chelyabinsk
65′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Chelyabinsk · On: Georgiy Borisov · Off: Denis Samoilov Corrected
65′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Chelyabinsk
68′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Vladislav Kamilov · Spartak Kostroma
76′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Spartak Kostroma · On: Nader Mohammadi · Off: Dimitri Ghurtskaia Corrected
76′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Spartak Kostroma · On: Dmitriy Kaptilovich · Off: Ruslan Chervyakov Corrected
81′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Spartak Kostroma · On: Sergey Bugriev · Off: David Kirakosyan Corrected
85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Chelyabinsk · On: Vitaliy Lystsov · Off: Khetag Kochiev Corrected
87′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Chelyabinsk
89′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Chelyabinsk
90′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Spartak Kostroma · On: Kirill Chursin · Off: Oleg Nikiforenko Corrected
FTFULL TIME Spartak Kostroma 1–0 Chelyabinsk
FTSpartak Kostroma 1–0 Chelyabinsk · Spartak Kostroma win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

1

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

2

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

3

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 13:24 · locked at kick-off

Spartak Kostroma win49%

Draw26%

Chelyabinsk win26%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 14:00

VenueStadion Urozhay

Line-ups

Spartak Kostroma

4-2-3-1

Chelyabinsk

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Spartak Kostroma

Chelyabinsk

35Days since last match33

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
34	Chelyabinsk	1	+2	3
36	Spartak Kostroma	1	+2	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Spartak Kostroma

4-2-3-1

50 E. Shamov

5 D. Zhilmostnykh

2 N. Tarasov

96 A. Mokhammad

7 K. Malyarov

8 N. Demchenko

73 D. Kirakosyan

10 D. Karaev

18 V. Kamilov

70 R. Chervyakov

11 D. Ghurtskaia

Coach · Andrey Ashikhmin

Substitutes

68 · M. Gaydash

6 · N. Mohammadi

3 · S. Bugriev

17 · D. Kaptilovich

69 · K. Chursin

82 · O. Nikiforenko

66 · M. Nikiforov

77 · I. Meshcheryakov

13 · I. Rubtsov

20 · M. Romanov

Chelyabinsk

4-2-3-1

93 I. Tuseev

5 B. Gatin

15 K. Kochiev

24 N. Pridava

27 I. Gribakin

77 D. Samoilov

11 G. Miroshnichenko

18 K. Kertanov

17 B. N'Diaye

7 I. Safronov

74 L. Kacorri

Coach · Roman Pilipchuk

Substitutes

31 · M. Pereverzev

72 · A. Bem

23 · B. Rogochiy

21 · A. Berdnikov

50 · V. Lystsov

33 · D. Pokotylo

70 · G. Levin

29 · M. Urvantsev

6 · S. Makarov

10 · R. Gadzhimuradov

99 · D. Kamenshchikov

55 · G. Borisov

Our number · spartak kostroma winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 13:24 · locked at kick-off

49% The market43%

Us49%

~~Market~~43%

We make Spartak Kostroma a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · spartak kostroma win The market, margin stripped

Published at 50%, 49% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Spartak Kostroma win	49%	43%	+6
Draw	26%	28%	−3
Chelyabinsk win	26%	29%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	51%	44%	+6
Both teams to score	53%	50%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	75%	69%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	29%	24%	+5
Spartak Kostroma or draw	74%	71%	+4
Spartak Kostroma clean sheet	34%	–	–
Chelyabinsk clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 7.5 6.9 4.1 1 10.3 12.2 6.4 2.4 2 8.6 9.2 5.1 3 4.6 5.0 2.7 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Spartak Kostroma down, Chelyabinsk across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,721 First League matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

First League matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.4% of games this season, across 118 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 3.33 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Spartak Kostroma at home: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Chelyabinsk away: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.61 goals for Spartak Kostroma, 1.10 for Chelyabinsk. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~3.33

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~CHE 0–1 SPA · CHE 3–3 SPA · SPA 2–1 CHE

Form · last six in Cup

SPARTAK KOSTROMA

WWWWLL1–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 2–3

CHELYABINSK

LLDWDW1–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 4–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kaluga	3	+7	9
2	FC Rostov	3	+7	9
3	Luki-Energiya	3	+5	9
4	Volna Nizhegorodskaya	3	+4	9
5	Spartak Moscow	3	+6	7
6	Chertanovo Moscow	3	+5	7
7	Volgar Astrakhan	3	+5	7
8	Dinamo Barnaul	4	+4	7
9	Murom	3	+4	7
10	Zenit	3	+4	7
11	Dinamo Kirov	3	+3	7
12	Dinamo St. Petersburg	3	+3	7
13	Znamya Noginsk	4	−1	7
14	Dynamo	3	+3	6
15	Dinamo Stavropol	3	+1	6
16	FK Sokol Saratov	3	+2	5
17	Druzhba	3	+1	5
18	FC Krasnodar	3	+1	5
19	Krylia Sovetov	3	+1	5
20	Kristall MEZ	2	+3	4
21	FC Tosno	2	+3	4
22	Torpedo Vladimir	2	+3	4
23	Amkar	2	+2	4
24	Dinamo Vologda	2	+2	4
25	Nosta	2	+1	4
26	Ryazan	3	0	4
27	KDV	3	−1	4
28	FC Orenburg	3	−1	4
29	2Drots	3	−1	4
30	Akhmat	3	−2	4
31	Akron	3	−3	4
32	Ska-khabarovsk	1	+4	3
33	Izberbash	2	+3	3
34	Chelyabinsk	1	+2	3
35	Shinnik Yaroslavl	1	+2	3
36	Spartak Kostroma	1	+2	3
37	Nizhny Novgorod	1	+1	3
38	Tekstilshchik	1	+1	3
39	Rodina Moskva	3	0	3
40	FC 10	2	0	3
41	Torpedo Miass	2	0	3
42	Broke Boys	2	−1	3
43	Ilpar	2	−1	3
44	SKA Rostov	2	0	2
45	FK Spartak Tambov	2	0	2
46	Baltika	3	−1	2
47	Lokomotiv	3	−1	2
48	Rubin	3	−5	2
49	Alaniya Vladikavkaz	1	0	1
50	Novosibirsk	1	0	1
51	Zenit Penza	1	0	1
52	Enisey	1	0	1
53	FK Neftekhimik	1	0	1
54	Leningradets	1	0	1
55	Mashuk-KMV	1	0	1
56	Saturn Ramenskoye	1	0	1
57	Shumbrat	1	0	1
58	Angust Nazran	1	0	1
59	Dinamo Vladivostok	1	0	1
60	Metallurg Lipetsk	1	0	1
61	Volga Ulyanovsk	1	0	1
62	Avangard Kursk	2	−1	1
63	Astrakhan	2	−1	1
64	Fakel	3	−2	1
65	Spartak Nalchik	2	−3	1
66	CSKA Moscow	3	−3	1
67	Cherepovets	2	−3	1
68	Dinamo Makhachkala	3	−4	1
69	Irtysh Omsk	2	−5	1
70	Temp Barnaul	1	−1	0
71	Khimik Dzerzhinsk	1	−1	0
72	Kosmos Dolgoprudny	1	−1	0
73	Kristall	1	−1	0
74	Anri Vladivostok	1	−1	0
75	Bomik	1	−1	0
76	Izhevsk	1	−1	0
77	Nart Cherkessk	1	−1	0
78	Tyumen	1	−1	0
79	Ural	1	−1	0
80	Zvezda St. Petersburg	1	−1	0
81	Arsenal Tula	1	−1	0
82	FC UFA	1	−1	0
83	KAMAZ	1	−1	0
84	Metallurg Asha	1	−1	0
85	Veles	1	−1	0
86	Dinamo Bryansk	1	−2	0
87	FC Sochi	1	−2	0
88	Kvant	1	−2	0
89	Orel	1	−2	0
90	Pobeda	1	−2	0
91	Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod	1	−2	0
92	Rotor Volgograd	1	−2	0
93	Torpedo Moskva	1	−2	0
94	Tver	1	−2	0
95	Chita	1	−3	0
96	Kirovets Voskhozhdenie	1	−3	0
97	Salyut-Belgorod	1	−3	0
98	Strogino	1	−3	0
99	Anzhi	1	−4	0
100	Iskra Smolensk	1	−5	0