Ska-khabarovsk v Dinamo Kirov prediction · Cup

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 12:01

Ska-khabarovsk 2–0 Dinamo Kirov SKA-KHABAROVSK WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ska-khabarovsk win~~46%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.445

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.432

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ska-khabarovsk win at 46%.
2′Much as we predicted: Ska-khabarovsk was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–26–28
2′KICK-OFF Ska-khabarovsk v Dinamo Kirov
6′6′ and it is 0–0: Ska-khabarovsk have scored. 0–0 · 45–27–28
7′⚽ GOAL · 6' Ska-khabarovsk 1–0 Dinamo Kirov
8′We published Ska-khabarovsk at 46%. Our model now makes it 72%. 1–0 · 72–18–10
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Ska-khabarovsk win: 46% at kick-off, 72% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 74–18–8
35′We published Ska-khabarovsk at 46%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–7
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Ska-khabarovsk win: 46% at kick-off, 76% now
45′HALF-TIME Ska-khabarovsk 1–0 Dinamo Kirov
50′SECOND HALF Ska-khabarovsk 1–0 Dinamo Kirov
55′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Ska-khabarovsk · On: Kamran Aliev · Off: Aleksandr Mukhin Corrected
57′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Dinamo Kirov · On: Artem Filippov · Off: Nikolay Kamaev Corrected
59′We published Ska-khabarovsk at 46%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
62′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Dinamo Kirov · On: Ivan Gorjainov · Off: Valentin Solodarenko Corrected
62′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Dinamo Kirov · On: Bilal Bilalov · Off: Mikhail Ageev Corrected
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Ska-khabarovsk 2–0 Dinamo Kirov · Mikheil Gorelishvili
66′Ska-khabarovsk find the net on 63′. 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Ska-khabarovsk win: 46% at kick-off, 98% now
68′We published Ska-khabarovsk at 46%. Our model now makes it 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
69′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Dinamo Kirov · On: Timur Bulatsev · Off: Ismail Dibirov Corrected
69′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Ska-khabarovsk · On: Maksim Ulezko · Off: Mikheil Gorelishvili Corrected
69′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Ska-khabarovsk · On: Stepan Glotov · Off: Jacobo Alcalde Corrected
81′We published Ska-khabarovsk at 46%. Our model now makes it 100%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
83′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Ska-khabarovsk · On: Stepan Glotov · Off: Jacobo Alcalde Corrected
83′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Dinamo Kirov · On: Timur Bulatsev · Off: Ismail Dibirov Corrected
84′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Dinamo Kirov · On: Aleksandr Burkov · Off: Egor Pozdnyakov Corrected
90′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Dinamo Kirov
90′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Aleksandr Stepanov · Dinamo Kirov
FTFULL TIME Ska-khabarovsk 2–0 Dinamo Kirov
FTSka-khabarovsk 2–0 Dinamo Kirov · Ska-khabarovsk win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on Ska-khabarovsk v Dinamo KirovBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 09:01 · locked at kick-off

Ska-khabarovsk win46%

Draw27%

Dinamo Kirov win28%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 09:30

VenueLenin Stadium

Line-ups

Ska-khabarovsk

Dinamo Kirov

4-1-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Ska-khabarovsk

Dinamo Kirov

35Days since last match35

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Dinamo Kirov	3	+3	7
34	Ska-khabarovsk	1	+4	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Ska-khabarovsk

Formation not confirmed

31 D. Nagaev

37 Makar Chirkov

29 A. Mukhin

84 Y. Grebenkin

17 D. Fomin

5 E. Bliev

24 M. Gorelishvili

20 I. Shkolik

91 E. Noskov

9 Jacobo Alcalde

7 N. Moțpan

Coach · Sergey Zhukov

Substitutes

19 · M. Ulezko

10 · K. Aliev

63 · D. Borisov

61 · M. Uzhgin

16 · V. Botnar

73 · M. Shtepa

50 · S. Glotov

13 · K. Mordasov

25 · Nikita Dolin

71 · S. Burdakov

82 · D. Ilyev

Dinamo Kirov

4-1-4-1

16 A. Savin

19 A. Stepanov

27 A. Chizh

3 E. Kolobov

47 V. Solodarenko

98 E. Pozdnyakov

10 M. Lauk

8 N. Kamaev

89 N. Dorofeev

13 M. Ageev

7 I. Dibirov

Coach · V. Bulatov

Substitutes

73 · S. Kalinov

15 · M. Martinkevich

55 · I. Goryainov

29 · E. Ignatovich

87 · Timur Bulatsev

4 · T. Sitnikov

91 · A. Filippov

99 · A. Burkov

9 · B. Bilalov

1 · V. Zadiraka

22 · Daniil Maltsev

Our number · ska-khabarovsk winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 09:01 · locked at kick-off

46% The market46%

Us46%

~~Market~~46%

We make Ska-khabarovsk a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ska-khabarovsk v Dinamo Kirov~~1.47 – 1.08

~~Last six in Cup~~W2 D1 L3 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 3 v 7~~34 v 11

~~The market · Ska-khabarovsk win~~46% · ours 46%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · ska-khabarovsk win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ska-khabarovsk win	46%	46%	−1
Draw	27%	26%	+1
Dinamo Kirov win	28%	28%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	47%	41%	+6
Both teams to score	51%	46%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	73%	66%	+7
Over 3.5 goals	25%	21%	+4
Ska-khabarovsk or draw	72%	72%	+1
Ska-khabarovsk clean sheet	34%	–	–
Dinamo Kirov clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 8.2 8.1 4.6 1 11.1 12.8 6.7 2.4 2 8.4 9.1 4.9 3 4.1 4.4 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ska-khabarovsk down, Dinamo Kirov across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates every club on one scale from 407,336 league, cup and continental matches in 638 leagues up to 14 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Ska-khabarovsk play in the First League, Dinamo Kirov in the Second League A - Division A Gold.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Ska-khabarovsk are at home.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two in this competition, so this step adds nothing.

What the model expects

1.47 goals for Ska-khabarovsk, 1.08 for Dinamo Kirov. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in Cup since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in Cup

SKA-KHABAROVSK

WDLLLW2–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 4–0

DINAMO KIROV

WLDWDW3–2 · 0–7 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 4–4 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kaluga	3	+7	9
2	FC Rostov	3	+7	9
3	Luki-Energiya	3	+5	9
4	Volna Nizhegorodskaya	3	+4	9
5	Spartak Moscow	3	+6	7
6	Chertanovo Moscow	3	+5	7
7	Volgar Astrakhan	3	+5	7
8	Dinamo Barnaul	4	+4	7
9	Murom	3	+4	7
10	Zenit	3	+4	7
11	Dinamo Kirov	3	+3	7
12	Dinamo St. Petersburg	3	+3	7
13	Znamya Noginsk	4	−1	7
14	Dynamo	3	+3	6
15	Spartak Kostroma	2	+3	6
16	Dinamo Stavropol	3	+1	6
17	FK Sokol Saratov	3	+2	5
18	Druzhba	3	+1	5
19	Krylia Sovetov	3	+1	5
20	FC Krasnodar	4	−1	5
21	Akron	4	−3	5
22	Kristall MEZ	2	+3	4
23	FC Tosno	2	+3	4
24	Torpedo Vladimir	2	+3	4
25	Amkar	2	+2	4
26	Dinamo Vologda	2	+2	4
27	Nosta	2	+1	4
28	Fakel	4	0	4
29	Ryazan	3	0	4
30	KDV	3	−1	4
31	FC Orenburg	3	−1	4
32	2Drots	3	−1	4
33	Akhmat	3	−2	4
34	Ska-khabarovsk	1	+4	3
35	Izberbash	2	+3	3
36	Shinnik Yaroslavl	1	+2	3
37	Chelyabinsk	2	+1	3
38	Nizhny Novgorod	1	+1	3
39	Tekstilshchik	1	+1	3
40	Rodina Moskva	3	0	3
41	FC 10	2	0	3
42	Torpedo Miass	2	0	3
43	Broke Boys	2	−1	3
44	Ilpar	2	−1	3
45	Lokomotiv	4	−1	3
46	SKA Rostov	2	0	2
47	FK Spartak Tambov	2	0	2
48	Baltika	3	−1	2
49	Rubin	3	−5	2
50	Alaniya Vladikavkaz	1	0	1
51	Novosibirsk	1	0	1
52	Zenit Penza	1	0	1
53	Enisey	1	0	1
54	FK Neftekhimik	1	0	1
55	Leningradets	1	0	1
56	Mashuk-KMV	1	0	1
57	Saturn Ramenskoye	1	0	1
58	Shumbrat	1	0	1
59	Angust Nazran	1	0	1
60	Dinamo Vladivostok	1	0	1
61	Metallurg Lipetsk	1	0	1
62	Volga Ulyanovsk	1	0	1
63	Avangard Kursk	2	−1	1
64	Astrakhan	2	−1	1
65	Spartak Nalchik	2	−3	1
66	CSKA Moscow	3	−3	1
67	Cherepovets	2	−3	1
68	Dinamo Makhachkala	3	−4	1
69	Irtysh Omsk	2	−5	1
70	Temp Barnaul	1	−1	0
71	Khimik Dzerzhinsk	1	−1	0
72	Kosmos Dolgoprudny	1	−1	0
73	Kristall	1	−1	0
74	Anri Vladivostok	1	−1	0
75	Bomik	1	−1	0
76	Izhevsk	1	−1	0
77	Nart Cherkessk	1	−1	0
78	Tyumen	1	−1	0
79	Ural	1	−1	0
80	Zvezda St. Petersburg	1	−1	0
81	Arsenal Tula	1	−1	0
82	FC UFA	1	−1	0
83	KAMAZ	1	−1	0
84	Metallurg Asha	1	−1	0
85	Veles	1	−1	0
86	Dinamo Bryansk	1	−2	0
87	FC Sochi	1	−2	0
88	Kvant	1	−2	0
89	Orel	1	−2	0
90	Pobeda	1	−2	0
91	Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod	1	−2	0
92	Rotor Volgograd	1	−2	0
93	Torpedo Moskva	1	−2	0
94	Tver	1	−2	0
95	Chita	1	−3	0
96	Kirovets Voskhozhdenie	1	−3	0
97	Salyut-Belgorod	1	−3	0
98	Strogino	1	−3	0
99	Anzhi	1	−4	0
100	Iskra Smolensk	1	−5	0