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Model 1.1

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Rubin v FC Orenburg

Rubin
1–4Full time
FC Orenburg

Cup · THU 15 OCT · Ak Bars Arena

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 19:01
Rubin 1–4 FC Orenburg RUBIN WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Rubin win46%
The market said48%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.882
The market’s Brier score0.871

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 30 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Rubin win at 46%.
  2. 2′KICK-OFF Rubin v FC Orenburg
  3. 3′Much as we predicted: Rubin was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–28–25
  4. 7′We said Rubin at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 21%. 0–1 · 21–25–54
  5. 7′FC Orenburg score on 6′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 21–25–54
  6. 7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Rubin 0–1 FC Orenburg
  7. 7′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 7' Rubin win: 46% at kick-off, 21% now
  8. 7′THE CALL SWINGS · 7' FC Orenburg win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Rubin win 21%)
  9. 11′We said Rubin at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 7%. 0–2 · 7–13–80
  10. 11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Rubin 0–2 FC Orenburg
  11. 11′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 11' Rubin win: 46% at kick-off, 7% now
  12. 13′FC Orenburg ahead on 10′ through Renat Golybin. 0–2. 0–2 · 7–13–80
  13. 14′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 14' Rubin win: 46% at kick-off, 6% now
  14. 28′We said Rubin at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–2 · 4–11–84
  15. 42′🟨 YELLOW · 40' FC Orenburg
  16. 45′HALF-TIME Rubin 0–2 FC Orenburg
  17. 46′SECOND HALF Rubin 0–2 FC Orenburg
  18. 47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Rubin · On: Daniil Kuznetsov · Off: Egor Teslenko
  19. 47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Rubin · On: Ulvi Babaev · Off: Ruslan Bezrukov
  20. 49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Rubin · On: Eddie Salcedo · Off: Ugochukwu Iwu
  21. 49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' FC Orenburg · On: Evgeniy Bolotov · Off: Ruslan Kul
  22. 59′Rubin have had 8 attempts to 3 and it is still 0–2. 0–2 · 1–5–94
  23. 60′SUBSTITUTION · 56' FC Orenburg · On: Damian Puebla · Off: Dmitriy Rybchinskiy
  24. 60′🟨 YELLOW · 59' FC Orenburg
  25. 62′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Rubin
  26. 63′🟨 YELLOW · 62' FC Orenburg
  27. 64′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 0–2 · 1–4–95
  28. 69′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Rubin
  29. 69′🟨 YELLOW · 68' FC Orenburg
  30. 70′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 0–3 · 0–0–100
  31. 70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Rubin 0–3 FC Orenburg
  32. 71′A goal for FC Orenburg on 69′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
  33. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 70' FC Orenburg · On: Maxime Sivis · Off: Mikhail Pykhcheev
  34. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 70' FC Orenburg · On: Gedeon Guzina · Off: Renat Golybin
  35. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Rubin · On: Ilya Samoshnikov · Off: Ilya Rozhkov
  36. 78′FC Orenburg score on 77′ to make it 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
  37. 78′⚽ GOAL · 77' Rubin 0–4 FC Orenburg
  38. 79′4 goals already, more than the 2.3 we expected for the whole match. 0–4 · 0–0–100
  39. 82′A red card for FC Orenburg on 80′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–4 · 0–0–100
  40. 82′🟥 RED CARD · 80' FC Orenburg
  41. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Rubin · On: Daniil Motorin · Off: Jacques Siwe
  42. 92′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 1–4 · 0–0–100
  43. 92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Rubin 1–4 FC Orenburg
  44. 92′SUBSTITUTION · 88' FC Orenburg · On: Jhon Alex Palacios · Off: Anton Lukashov
  45. 93′Rubin find the net on 90′. 1–4. 1–4 · 0–0–100
  46. FTFULL TIME Rubin 1–4 FC Orenburg
  47. FTRubin 1–4 FC Orenburg · Rubin win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Rubin are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Rubin 46%, draw 30%, FC Orenburg 24%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Rubin v FC OrenburgBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

Rubin win46%
Draw30%
FC Orenburg win24%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 16:30

RoundGroup stage · matchday 4

VenueAk Bars Arena

Line-ups

Rubin

5-4-1

FC Orenburg

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rubin

FC Orenburg

4Days since last match5
1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Rubin

5-4-1

25 A. Nigmatullin

12 A. Arroyo

13 J. Urozov

5 I. Vujačić

2 E. Teslenko

51 I. Rozhkov

11 N. Gripshi

6 U. Iwu

14 I. Saavedra

23 R. Bezrukov

43 J. Siwe

Coach · Franc Artiga

Substitutes

27 · A. Gritsaenko

38 · E. Staver

7 · U. Babaev

18 · M. Ignatjev

89 · M. Ivanov

8 · B. Jočić

86 · N. Korets

44 · D. Kuznetsov

98 · N. Lobov

59 · D. N. Motorin

10 · E. Salcedo

71 · I. Samoshnikov

FC Orenburg

4-2-3-1

35 A. Degtev

22 A. Lukashov

38 A. Kasimov

4 D. Khotulev

3 D. Vedernikov

80 M. Pykhcheev

78 R. Kul

20 D. Rybchinskiy

11 E. Nazarenko

77 A. Kasadzhikov

27 Renat Golybin

Coach · I. Akhmetzyanov

Substitutes

7 · J. González

30 · G. Guzina

53 · V. Korobov

63 · O. Minatulaev

1 · B. Ovsyannikov

6 · J. Palacios

8 · D. Puebla

24 · M. Sivis

5 · A. Tataev

26 · E. Tsenov

57 · E. Bolotov

21 · Benjamín Bosch

Our number · rubin winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · updated 14 Oct 04:58 · locked at kick-off
46% The market48%
Us46%
Market48%

We make Rubin a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.4–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Rubin v FC Orenburg1.37 – 0.91
Form · Cup this season · since 4 AugW0 D2 L1 · W1 D1 L1
The market · Rubin win48% · ours 46%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55% 9 OCT 07:2615 OCT 16:09
Our probability · Rubin win The market, margin stripped

Published at 48%, 46% now. The market has gone from 53% to 48% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Rubin win46%48%−2
Draw30%27%+3
FC Orenburg win24%25%−1
Over 2.5 goals40%46%−6
Both teams to score45%50%−5
Over 1.5 goals67%69%−2
Over 3.5 goals20%26%−6
Rubin or draw76%75%+1
Rubin clean sheet40%––
FC Orenburg clean sheet26%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.7%
0123450 11.5 8.2 4.3 1 12.9 13.7 5.7 2 9.5 8.6 3.9 3 4.4 4.0 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Rubin down, FC Orenburg across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting2.40
Over 2.54 of 10
Both scored6 of 10
Last meetingsFCO 1–1 RUB · RUB 1–1 FCO · RUB 0–0 FCO · FCO 0–0 RUB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Cup this season · since 4 Aug

RUBIN

LDD0–5 · 1–1 · 1–1

FC ORENBURG

LWD1–5 · 4–1 · 1–1