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Rodina Moskva v Spartak Moscow

Rodina Moskva
2–4Full time
Spartak Moscow

Cup · THU 15 OCT · Arena Khimki

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 21:30
Rodina Moskva 2–4 Spartak Moscow SPARTAK MOSCOW WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–2 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Spartak Moscow win66%
The market said65%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.173
The market’s Brier score0.180

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay25 notes · 40 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Spartak Moscow win at 66%.
  2. 2′Little has changed for our model: Spartak Moscow 66% before kick-off, 66% now. 0–0 · 14–20–66
  3. 2′KICK-OFF Rodina Moskva v Spartak Moscow
  4. 24′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Rodina Moskva
  5. 26′We said Spartak Moscow at 66% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 0–1 · 4–11–85
  6. 26′⚽ GOAL · 26' Rodina Moskva 0–1 Spartak Moscow
  7. 26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Spartak Moscow win: 66% at kick-off, 85% now
  8. 26′PENALTY MISSED · 25' Spartak Moscow
  9. 27′A goal for Spartak Moscow on 25′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 4–11–85
  10. 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 0–1 · 4–12–85
  11. 43′Rodina Moskva find the net on 40′. 2–1 · 48–29–23
  12. 43′We said Spartak Moscow at 66%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 2–1 · 48–29–23
  13. 43′⚽ GOAL · 40' Rodina Moskva 2–1 Spartak Moscow
  14. 43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Rodina Moskva 2–1 Spartak Moscow
  15. 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Spartak Moscow win: 66% at kick-off, 23% now
  16. 43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Rodina Moskva win is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Spartak Moscow win 23%)
  17. 45′Rodina Moskva find the net on 41′. 2–1. 2–1 · 49–30–22
  18. 45′HALF-TIME Rodina Moskva 2–1 Spartak Moscow
  19. 45′GOAL DISALLOWED · 45' Rodina Moskva
  20. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Spartak Moscow win: 66% at kick-off, 85% now
  21. 45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Spartak Moscow win is now our likeliest result at 85% (was Rodina Moskva win 3%)
  22. 45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Rodina Moskva 2–1 Spartak Moscow · German Onugkha
  23. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Spartak Moscow win: 66% at kick-off, 22% now
  24. 45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Rodina Moskva win is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Spartak Moscow win 22%)
  25. 46′SECOND HALF Rodina Moskva 2–1 Spartak Moscow
  26. 49′We said Spartak Moscow at 66%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 2–2 · 15–36–49
  27. 49′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.1 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 15–36–49
  28. 49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Rodina Moskva 2–2 Spartak Moscow
  29. 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Spartak Moscow win: 66% at kick-off, 49% now
  30. 49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Spartak Moscow win is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Rodina Moskva win 15%)
  31. 49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Rodina Moskva · On: Dmitriy Tananeev · Off: Soltmurad Bakaev
  32. 49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Rodina Moskva · On: Astemir Gordyushenko · Off: Rodrigo Becão
  33. 50′We said Spartak Moscow at 66%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 2–1 · 51–30–19 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
  34. 51′A goal for Spartak Moscow on 49′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 15–37–48
  35. 52′A goal for Spartak Moscow on 51′. 2–2 · 15–38–47
  36. 54′A goal for Spartak Moscow on 53′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 15–39–46
  37. 56′Mirlind Daku scores for Spartak Moscow on 48′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 14–41–45
  38. 57′We said Spartak Moscow at 66%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 2–2 · 14–42–44
  39. 58′10 shots for Spartak Moscow, 5 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 2–2 · 14–42–43
  40. 59′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Spartak Moscow
  41. 62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Draw is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Spartak Moscow win 40%)
  42. 63′We said Spartak Moscow at 66%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 2–2 · 13–47–39
  43. 63′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Spartak Moscow
  44. 64′Spartak Moscow score on 64′ to make it 2–3. 2–3 · 2–12–87
  45. 64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Rodina Moskva 2–3 Spartak Moscow
  46. 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Spartak Moscow win: 66% at kick-off, 87% now
  47. 64′THE CALL SWINGS · 64' Spartak Moscow win is now our likeliest result at 87% (was Draw 12%)
  48. 65′5 goals already, more than the 3.1 we expected for the whole match. 2–3 · 1–11–87
  49. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Rodina Moskva · On: Artur Gharibyan · Off: German Onugkha
  50. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Spartak Moscow · On: Srdjan Babic · Off: Victor Parada
  51. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Spartak Moscow · On: Roman Zobnin · Off: Nail Umyarov
  52. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Spartak Moscow · On: Pablo Solari · Off: Esequiel Barco
  53. 73′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Spartak Moscow
  54. 74′We said Spartak Moscow at 66% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–3 · 1–9–90
  55. 81′Spartak Moscow find the net on 80′. 2–3 · 0–7–93
  56. 84′We said Spartak Moscow at 66% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–3 · 0–5–95
  57. 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Spartak Moscow win: 66% at kick-off, 96% now
  58. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Spartak Moscow · On: Manfred Ugalde · Off: Mirlind Daku
  59. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Spartak Moscow · On: Vladislav Saus · Off: Daniil Denisov
  60. 95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' Spartak Moscow
  61. 95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Rodina Moskva
  62. 98′We said Spartak Moscow at 66% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–4 · 0–0–100
  63. 98′⚽ GOAL · 90+8' Rodina Moskva 2–4 Spartak Moscow
  64. 99′Spartak Moscow find the net on 90′. 2–4. 2–4 · 0–0–100
  65. 99′That is 6, and we only asked for 3.1 across ninety minutes. 2–4 · 0–0–100
  66. FTFULL TIME Rodina Moskva 2–4 Spartak Moscow
  67. FTRodina Moskva 2–4 Spartak Moscow · Spartak Moscow win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Spartak Moscow are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Rodina Moskva 14%, draw 20%, Spartak Moscow 66%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Rodina Moskva v Spartak MoscowBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

Rodina Moskva win14%
Draw20%
Spartak Moscow win66%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 18:45

RoundGroup stage · matchday 4

VenueArena Khimki

Line-ups

Rodina Moskva

4-3-3

Spartak Moscow

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rodina Moskva

Spartak Moscow

4Days since last match5

Last match: 11 Oct · the Russian Premier League

Last match: 10 Oct · the Russian Premier League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Rodina Moskva

4-3-3

1 S. Aydarov

80 S. Bessmertny

50 Rodrigo Becão

55 M. Križan

3 L. Goglichidze

5 A. Egorychev

6 R. Fishchenko

8 Iker Pozo

18 M. Abdusalamov

7 G. Onugkha

17 S. Bakaev

Coach · Jonatan Alba

Substitutes

77 · A. Gharibyan

88 · A. Sokol

26 · A. Meshchaninov

20 · D. Machado

19 · D. Tananeev

15 · D. Shadrintsev

72 · A. Gordyushenko

38 · L. Musaev

23 · K. Ushatov

10 · Y. Reyna

95 · K. Cissoko

13 · S. Volkov

Spartak Moscow

4-2-3-1

1 I. Pomazun

97 D. Denisov

3 C. Wooh

33 Víctor Parada

27 I. Dmitriev

68 R. Litvinov

18 N. Umyarov

83 Gedson Fernandes

5 E. Barco

10 Marquinhos

19 M. Daku

Coach · Carcedo

Substitutes

98 · A. Maksimenko

9 · M. Ugalde

7 · P. Solari

62 · P. Polekh

17 · V. Saus

24 · Nikita Massalyga

40 · I. Sorokin

47 · R. Zobnin

4 · A. Djiku

6 · S. Babić

56 · A. Dovbnya

Our number · spartak moscow winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · updated 15 Oct 05:06 · locked at kick-off
66% The market65%
Us66%
Market65%

We make Spartak Moscow a 66% chance to win. The market has them at 65%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 0.9–2.2.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Rodina Moskva v Spartak Moscow0.89 – 2.17
Form · Cup this season · since 4 AugW1 D0 L2 · W2 D1 L0
The market · Spartak Moscow win65% · ours 66%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
60%65%70% 9 OCT 07:2615 OCT 18:40
Our probability · Spartak Moscow win The market, margin stripped

Published at 65%, 66% now. The market has gone from 68% to 65% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Rodina Moskva win14%15%−1
Draw20%19%+1
Spartak Moscow win66%65%+1
Over 2.5 goals59%64%−5
Both teams to score53%57%−4
Over 1.5 goals81%82%−1
Over 3.5 goals37%43%−6
Rodina Moskva or draw34%35%−1
Rodina Moskva clean sheet11%––
Spartak Moscow clean sheet41%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 11.0%
0123450 5.0 9.9 11.0 8.0 4.3 1 3.9 9.4 9.8 7.1 3.8 2 4.0 4.4 3.2 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Rodina Moskva down, Spartak Moscow across0–5 goals a side shown (97.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting3.50
Over 2.52 of 2
Both scored1 of 2
Last meetingsSPA 3–1 ROD · SPA 3–0 ROD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Cup this season · since 4 Aug

RODINA MOSKVA

WLL5–0 · 1–4 · 1–3

SPARTAK MOSCOW

WDW5–1 · 1–1 · 3–1