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Nizhny Novgorod v Shinnik Yaroslavl

Nizhny Novgorod

4–0Full time

Shinnik Yaroslavl

Cup · WED 14 OCT · Nizhny Novgorod Stadium

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 19:45

Nizhny Novgorod 4–0 Shinnik Yaroslavl NIZHNY NOVGOROD WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Nizhny Novgorod win~~62%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.219

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.265

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Nizhny Novgorod win at 62%.
2′KICK-OFF Nizhny Novgorod v Shinnik Yaroslavl
3′Little has changed for our model: Nizhny Novgorod 62% before kick-off, 62% now. 0–0 · 62–23–15
22′A goal for Nizhny Novgorod on 22′ — 0–0. 0–0 · 56–28–16
23′We said Nizhny Novgorod at 62% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 84%. 1–0 · 84–12–4
23′⚽ GOAL · 22' Nizhny Novgorod 1–0 Shinnik Yaroslavl
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Nizhny Novgorod win: 62% at kick-off, 84% now
26′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Shinnik Yaroslavl
29′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Artem Lavrenkov · Shinnik Yaroslavl
29′PENALTY MISSED · 28' Nizhny Novgorod
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 84–12–3
35′PENALTY MISSED · 28' Nikolay Kalinskiy · Nizhny Novgorod
35′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Shinnik Yaroslavl
37′35′ and it is 2–0: Nizhny Novgorod have scored. 2–0 · 97–3–0
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Nizhny Novgorod 2–0 Shinnik Yaroslavl · Valeriy Tsarukyan
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Nizhny Novgorod win: 62% at kick-off, 97% now
38′We said Nizhny Novgorod at 62% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 2–0 · 97–3–0
45′HALF-TIME Nizhny Novgorod 2–0 Shinnik Yaroslavl
45′🟨 YELLOW · 24' Artem Lavrenkov · Shinnik Yaroslavl
46′SECOND HALF Nizhny Novgorod 2–0 Shinnik Yaroslavl
51′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Shinnik Yaroslavl · On: Artem Golubev · Off: Yaroslav Arbuzov
51′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Shinnik Yaroslavl · On: Albek Gongapshev · Off: Anton Antonov
51′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Shinnik Yaroslavl · On: Oleg Lanin · Off: Danila Yanov
66′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Nizhny Novgorod · On: Gleb Popolitov · Off: Ivan Bober
66′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Nizhny Novgorod · On: Vyacheslav Grulev · Off: Vladimir Ignatenko
66′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Shinnik Yaroslavl · On: Denis Pushkarev · Off: Daniil Martovoy
67′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Nizhny Novgorod · On: Artem Sokolov · Off: Valeriy Tsarukyan
67′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Nizhny Novgorod · On: Yan Gudkov · Off: Aleksandr Ektov
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Nizhny Novgorod 3–0 Shinnik Yaroslavl · Ivan Bober
76′Nizhny Novgorod find the net on 75′. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
77′We said Nizhny Novgorod at 62% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 100%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
78′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
80′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Nizhny Novgorod 4–0 Shinnik Yaroslavl · Ivan Bober
81′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Shinnik Yaroslavl · On: Nikita Chistyakov · Off: Vadim Karpov
81′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Nizhny Novgorod · On: Mamadou Maiga · Off: Nikita Ermakov
83′A goal for Nizhny Novgorod on 80′ — 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
83′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Nizhny Novgorod
89′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Yan Gudkov · Nizhny Novgorod
FTFULL TIME Nizhny Novgorod 4–0 Shinnik Yaroslavl
FTNizhny Novgorod 4–0 Shinnik Yaroslavl · Nizhny Novgorod win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on Nizhny Novgorod v Shinnik YaroslavlBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 16:33 · locked at kick-off

Nizhny Novgorod win62%

Draw23%

Shinnik Yaroslavl win15%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 17:15

VenueNizhny Novgorod Stadium

Line-ups

Nizhny Novgorod

4-3-3

Shinnik Yaroslavl

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Nizhny Novgorod

Shinnik Yaroslavl

35Days since last match34

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
36	Shinnik Yaroslavl	1	+2	3
38	Nizhny Novgorod	1	+1	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Nizhny Novgorod

4-3-3

98 I. Imamov

2 V. Aleksandrov

15 A. Ektov

4 R. Evgenjev

17 G. Shilnikov

80 V. Tsarukyan

19 N. Ermakov

78 N. Kalinskiy

72 T. Komissarov

7 I. Bober

91 V. Ignatenko

Coach · Vadim Garanin

Substitutes

94 · A. Timofeev

81 · N. Generalov

27 · V. Grulev

66 · Y. Gudkov

22 · N. Kakkoev

25 · S. Karič

93 · S. Lapinskiy

8 · M. Maiga

11 · G. Popolitov

18 · A. Sokolov

Shinnik Yaroslavl

4-3-3

66 N. Yanovich

27 A. Cherny

49 M. Karaev

62 V. Karpov

33 A. Lavrenkov

13 D. Yanov

77 A. Antonov

19 Y. Arbuzov

54 I. Shmakov

7 D. Martovoy

88 D. Mironov

Coach · D. Boyarintsev

Substitutes

95 · D. Vambolt

17 · E. Valiakhmetov

15 · D. Samoylov

21 · D. Pushkarev

64 · O. Lanin

14 · gleb kalinin

10 · A. Gongapshev

50 · A. Golubev

23 · N. Chistyakov

Our number · nizhny novgorod winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 16:33 · locked at kick-off

62% The market58%

Us62%

~~Market~~58%

We make Nizhny Novgorod a 62% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Nizhny Novgorod v Shinnik Yaroslavl~~1.83 – 0.78

~~Last six in Cup~~W2 D0 L4 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 3 v 3~~38 v 36

~~The market · Nizhny Novgorod win~~58% · ours 62%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · nizhny novgorod win The market, margin stripped

Published at 61%, 62% now. The market has gone from 59% to 58% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nizhny Novgorod win	62%	58%	+4
Draw	23%	21%	+2
Shinnik Yaroslavl win	15%	21%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	48%	60%	−11
Both teams to score	46%	57%	−12
Over 1.5 goals	74%	79%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	27%	38%	−11
Nizhny Novgorod or draw	85%	79%	+6
Nizhny Novgorod clean sheet	46%	–	–
Shinnik Yaroslavl clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.2%

0123450 7.7 5.4 2.2 1 13.2 10.8 4.1 2 12.4 9.6 3.7 3 7.5 5.9 2.3 4 3.5 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nizhny Novgorod down, Shinnik Yaroslavl across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates every club on one scale from 407,336 league, cup and continental matches in 638 leagues up to 14 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Nizhny Novgorod play in the Premier League, Shinnik Yaroslavl in the First League.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Nizhny Novgorod are at home.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two in this competition, so this step adds nothing.

What the model expects

1.83 goals for Nizhny Novgorod, 0.78 for Shinnik Yaroslavl. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in Cup since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in Cup

NIZHNY NOVGOROD

WLLLLW1–0 · 0–4 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 1–4 · 2–1

SHINNIK YAROSLAVL

WDLWDW1–0 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 4–1 · 1–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kaluga	3	+7	9
2	FC Rostov	3	+7	9
3	Luki-Energiya	3	+5	9
4	Volna Nizhegorodskaya	3	+4	9
5	Spartak Moscow	3	+6	7
6	Chertanovo Moscow	3	+5	7
7	Volgar Astrakhan	3	+5	7
8	Dinamo Barnaul	4	+4	7
9	Murom	3	+4	7
10	Zenit	3	+4	7
11	Dinamo Kirov	3	+3	7
12	Dinamo St. Petersburg	3	+3	7
13	Znamya Noginsk	4	−1	7
14	Dynamo	3	+3	6
15	Spartak Kostroma	2	+3	6
16	Dinamo Stavropol	3	+1	6
17	FK Sokol Saratov	3	+2	5
18	Druzhba	3	+1	5
19	Krylia Sovetov	3	+1	5
20	FC Krasnodar	4	−1	5
21	Akron	4	−3	5
22	Kristall MEZ	2	+3	4
23	FC Tosno	2	+3	4
24	Torpedo Vladimir	2	+3	4
25	Amkar	2	+2	4
26	Dinamo Vologda	2	+2	4
27	Nosta	2	+1	4
28	Fakel	4	0	4
29	Ryazan	3	0	4
30	KDV	3	−1	4
31	FC Orenburg	3	−1	4
32	2Drots	3	−1	4
33	Akhmat	3	−2	4
34	Ska-khabarovsk	1	+4	3
35	Izberbash	2	+3	3
36	Shinnik Yaroslavl	1	+2	3
37	Chelyabinsk	2	+1	3
38	Nizhny Novgorod	1	+1	3
39	Tekstilshchik	1	+1	3
40	Rodina Moskva	3	0	3
41	FC 10	2	0	3
42	Torpedo Miass	2	0	3
43	Broke Boys	2	−1	3
44	Ilpar	2	−1	3
45	Lokomotiv	4	−1	3
46	SKA Rostov	2	0	2
47	FK Spartak Tambov	2	0	2
48	Baltika	3	−1	2
49	Rubin	3	−5	2
50	Alaniya Vladikavkaz	1	0	1
51	Novosibirsk	1	0	1
52	Zenit Penza	1	0	1
53	Enisey	1	0	1
54	FK Neftekhimik	1	0	1
55	Leningradets	1	0	1
56	Mashuk-KMV	1	0	1
57	Saturn Ramenskoye	1	0	1
58	Shumbrat	1	0	1
59	Angust Nazran	1	0	1
60	Dinamo Vladivostok	1	0	1
61	Metallurg Lipetsk	1	0	1
62	Volga Ulyanovsk	1	0	1
63	Avangard Kursk	2	−1	1
64	Astrakhan	2	−1	1
65	Spartak Nalchik	2	−3	1
66	CSKA Moscow	3	−3	1
67	Cherepovets	2	−3	1
68	Dinamo Makhachkala	3	−4	1
69	Irtysh Omsk	2	−5	1
70	Temp Barnaul	1	−1	0
71	Khimik Dzerzhinsk	1	−1	0
72	Kosmos Dolgoprudny	1	−1	0
73	Kristall	1	−1	0
74	Anri Vladivostok	1	−1	0
75	Bomik	1	−1	0
76	Izhevsk	1	−1	0
77	Nart Cherkessk	1	−1	0
78	Tyumen	1	−1	0
79	Ural	1	−1	0
80	Zvezda St. Petersburg	1	−1	0
81	Arsenal Tula	1	−1	0
82	FC UFA	1	−1	0
83	KAMAZ	1	−1	0
84	Metallurg Asha	1	−1	0
85	Veles	1	−1	0
86	Dinamo Bryansk	1	−2	0
87	FC Sochi	1	−2	0
88	Kvant	1	−2	0
89	Orel	1	−2	0
90	Pobeda	1	−2	0
91	Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod	1	−2	0
92	Rotor Volgograd	1	−2	0
93	Torpedo Moskva	1	−2	0
94	Tver	1	−2	0
95	Chita	1	−3	0
96	Kirovets Voskhozhdenie	1	−3	0
97	Salyut-Belgorod	1	−3	0
98	Strogino	1	−3	0
99	Anzhi	1	−4	0
100	Iskra Smolensk	1	−5	0