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Lokomotiv v Akron

Lokomotiv

1–1After penalties

Akron

Cup · TUE 13 OCT · RZD Arena

After 90 minutesGraded 13 Oct 19:02

Lokomotiv 1–1 Akron LOKOMOTIV WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lokomotiv win~~63%

~~The market said~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.054

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.952

Every number we publish is for the 90 minutes, so this match is graded on 1–1, the score after 90 minutes. Akron won 1–3 on penalties.

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 32 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Lokomotiv win at 63%.
1′KICK-OFF Lokomotiv v Akron
2′Much as we predicted: Lokomotiv was 63% before kick-off and our model makes it 64% now. 0–0 · 64–19–16
27′🟨 YELLOW · 26' Lokomotiv
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Lokomotiv win: 63% at kick-off, 53% now
43′We said Lokomotiv at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 51%. 0–0 · 51–31–17
45′Lokomotiv find the net on 49′. 0–0. 0–0 · 50–32–17
45′HALF-TIME Lokomotiv 0–0 Akron
45′⚽ GOAL · 49' Lokomotiv 0–0 Akron
45′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Akron · On: Maksim Boldyrev · Off: Kevin Arevalo Corrected
45′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Lokomotiv · On: Georgiy Dzhikiya · Off: César Montes Corrected
45′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Lokomotiv · On: Sergey Babkin · Off: Vadim Rakov Corrected
45′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Lokomotiv · On: Sergey Pinyaev · Off: Zelimkhan Bakaev Corrected
45′⚽ GOAL · 48' Lokomotiv 0–0 Akron · Sergey Pinyaev
47′We said Lokomotiv at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–33–17
47′SECOND HALF Lokomotiv 0–0 Akron
51′Lokomotiv ahead on 48′ through Sergey Pinyaev. 1–0. 1–0 · 83–13–3
51′SECOND HALF Lokomotiv 1–0 Akron
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Lokomotiv 1–0 Akron · Sergey Pinyaev
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Lokomotiv win: 63% at kick-off, 83% now
52′We published Lokomotiv at 63%. Our model now makes it 83%. 1–0 · 83–13–3
52′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Lokomotiv
63′A goal for Akron on 61′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 39–46–15
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Lokomotiv 1–1 Akron · Sergey Pinyaev
63′⚽ GOAL · 61' Lokomotiv 1–1 Akron
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Lokomotiv win: 63% at kick-off, 39% now
64′THE CALL SWINGS · 64' Draw is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Lokomotiv win 39%)
66′We said Lokomotiv at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 37%. 1–1 · 37–49–14
68′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Akron · On: Artem sidorenko · Off: Nikita Bazilevskiy Corrected
68′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Akron · On: Slobodan Tedić · Off: Artem Shumanskiy Corrected
70′We said Lokomotiv at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 33%. 1–1 · 33–54–13
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Lokomotiv win: 63% at kick-off, 33% now
71′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Lokomotiv · On: Vladislav Golubev · Off: Nikolay Komlichenko Corrected
73′We said Lokomotiv at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–58–12
77′We said Lokomotiv at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–65–10
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Lokomotiv win: 63% at kick-off, 23% now
79′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Lokomotiv · On: Danila Godyaev · Off: Aleksandr Silyanov Corrected
82′We said Lokomotiv at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 17%. 1–1 · 17–76–7
84′We said Lokomotiv at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 1–1 · 13–81–6
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Lokomotiv win: 63% at kick-off, 13% now
88′We said Lokomotiv at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–87–4
88′We said Lokomotiv at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 0%. 1–1 · 0–100–0
88′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Akron
88′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Lokomotiv
90′🟨 YELLOW · 91' Akron
90′🟨 YELLOW · 91' Yomar Rocha · Akron
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN Lokomotiv win: 63% at kick-off, 0% now
FTFULL TIME Lokomotiv 1–1 Akron
FTLokomotiv 1–1 Akron after 90 minutes, as graded · Lokomotiv win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 15:46 · locked at kick-off

Lokomotiv win63%

Draw21%

Akron win16%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 16:30

VenueRZD Arena

Line-ups

Lokomotiv

4-3-3

Akron

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Lokomotiv

Akron

42Days since last match42

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
31	Akron	3	−3	4
47	Lokomotiv	3	−1	2

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Lokomotiv

4-3-3

22 I. Lantratov

45 A. Silyanov

5 G. Nyamsi

23 C. Montes

3 Lucas Fasson

8 A. Kovalenko

18 N. Titkov

75 I. Eremeev

7 Z. Bakaev

27 N. Komlichenko

11 V. Rakov

Coach · Mikhail Galaktionov

Substitutes

16 · D. Veselov

1 · A. Mitryushkin

74 · D. Chevardin

24 · M. Nenakhov

14 · G. Dzhikiya

59 · E. Pogostnov

99 · R. Myalkovskiy

88 · M. Shchetinin

47 · D. Godyaev

9 · S. Pinyaev

6 · S. Babkin

63 · V. Golubev

Akron

4-3-3

32 I. Terekhovsky

2 Y. Rocha

24 I. Nedelcearu

26 R. Escoval

89 D. Popenkov

55 M. Vidosavljevic

80 K. Khosonov

81 N. Bazilevskiy

69 A. Dmitriev

99 A. Shumansky

10 K. Arevalo

Coach · Srdjan Blagojevic

Substitutes

88 · V. Gudiev

21 · R. Fernandez

19 · M. Bokoev

91 · M. Boldyrev

13 · V. Bardybakhin

8 · K. Bistrovic

6 · K. Hovhannisyan

17 · A. Sidorenko

71 · D. Pestryakov

5 · A. Djurasovic

9 · S. Tedic

11 · Dudu

Our number · lokomotiv winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 15:46 · locked at kick-off

63% The market57%

Us63%

~~Market~~57%

We make Lokomotiv a 63% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · lokomotiv win The market, margin stripped

Published at 61%, 63% now. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lokomotiv win	63%	57%	+6
Draw	21%	23%	−3
Akron win	16%	19%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	63%	55%	+9
Both teams to score	58%	54%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	84%	76%	+8
Over 3.5 goals	42%	34%	+8
Lokomotiv or draw	84%	81%	+3
Lokomotiv clean sheet	36%	–	–
Akron clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.6%

0123450 4.7 3.2 2.1 1 7.7 9.5 4.6 2 9.3 9.6 5.0 3 6.9 7.1 3.7 4 3.9 4.0 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lokomotiv down, Akron across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,300 Premier League matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.2% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 3.60 goals a meeting; 3 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Lokomotiv at home: 0.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Akron away: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.24 goals for Lokomotiv, 1.04 for Akron. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.60

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 5

~~Both scored~~4 of 5

~~Last meetings~~LOK 0–0 AKR · LOK 5–1 AKR · AKR 1–1 LOK · AKR 1–4 LOK

Form · last six in Cup

LOKOMOTIV

LLWLDW2–3 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 5–0

AKRON

LDDDWL0–3 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kaluga	3	+7	9
2	FC Rostov	3	+7	9
3	Luki-Energiya	3	+5	9
4	Volna Nizhegorodskaya	3	+4	9
5	Spartak Moscow	3	+6	7
6	Chertanovo Moscow	3	+5	7
7	Volgar Astrakhan	3	+5	7
8	Dinamo Barnaul	4	+4	7
9	Murom	3	+4	7
10	Zenit	3	+4	7
11	Dinamo Kirov	3	+3	7
12	Dinamo St. Petersburg	3	+3	7
13	Znamya Noginsk	4	−1	7
14	Dynamo	3	+3	6
15	Dinamo Stavropol	3	+1	6
16	FK Sokol Saratov	3	+2	5
17	Druzhba	3	+1	5
18	FC Krasnodar	3	+1	5
19	Krylia Sovetov	3	+1	5
20	Kristall MEZ	2	+3	4
21	FC Tosno	2	+3	4
22	Torpedo Vladimir	2	+3	4
23	Amkar	2	+2	4
24	Dinamo Vologda	2	+2	4
25	Nosta	2	+1	4
26	Ryazan	3	0	4
27	KDV	3	−1	4
28	FC Orenburg	3	−1	4
29	2Drots	3	−1	4
30	Akhmat	3	−2	4
31	Akron	3	−3	4
32	Ska-khabarovsk	1	+4	3
33	Izberbash	2	+3	3
34	Chelyabinsk	1	+2	3
35	Shinnik Yaroslavl	1	+2	3
36	Spartak Kostroma	1	+2	3
37	Nizhny Novgorod	1	+1	3
38	Tekstilshchik	1	+1	3
39	Rodina Moskva	3	0	3
40	FC 10	2	0	3
41	Torpedo Miass	2	0	3
42	Broke Boys	2	−1	3
43	Ilpar	2	−1	3
44	SKA Rostov	2	0	2
45	FK Spartak Tambov	2	0	2
46	Baltika	3	−1	2
47	Lokomotiv	3	−1	2
48	Rubin	3	−5	2
49	Alaniya Vladikavkaz	1	0	1
50	Novosibirsk	1	0	1
51	Zenit Penza	1	0	1
52	Enisey	1	0	1
53	FK Neftekhimik	1	0	1
54	Leningradets	1	0	1
55	Mashuk-KMV	1	0	1
56	Saturn Ramenskoye	1	0	1
57	Shumbrat	1	0	1
58	Angust Nazran	1	0	1
59	Dinamo Vladivostok	1	0	1
60	Metallurg Lipetsk	1	0	1
61	Volga Ulyanovsk	1	0	1
62	Avangard Kursk	2	−1	1
63	Astrakhan	2	−1	1
64	Fakel	3	−2	1
65	Spartak Nalchik	2	−3	1
66	CSKA Moscow	3	−3	1
67	Cherepovets	2	−3	1
68	Dinamo Makhachkala	3	−4	1
69	Irtysh Omsk	2	−5	1
70	Temp Barnaul	1	−1	0
71	Khimik Dzerzhinsk	1	−1	0
72	Kosmos Dolgoprudny	1	−1	0
73	Kristall	1	−1	0
74	Anri Vladivostok	1	−1	0
75	Bomik	1	−1	0
76	Izhevsk	1	−1	0
77	Nart Cherkessk	1	−1	0
78	Tyumen	1	−1	0
79	Ural	1	−1	0
80	Zvezda St. Petersburg	1	−1	0
81	Arsenal Tula	1	−1	0
82	FC UFA	1	−1	0
83	KAMAZ	1	−1	0
84	Metallurg Asha	1	−1	0
85	Veles	1	−1	0
86	Dinamo Bryansk	1	−2	0
87	FC Sochi	1	−2	0
88	Kvant	1	−2	0
89	Orel	1	−2	0
90	Pobeda	1	−2	0
91	Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod	1	−2	0
92	Rotor Volgograd	1	−2	0
93	Torpedo Moskva	1	−2	0
94	Tver	1	−2	0
95	Chita	1	−3	0
96	Kirovets Voskhozhdenie	1	−3	0
97	Salyut-Belgorod	1	−3	0
98	Strogino	1	−3	0
99	Anzhi	1	−4	0
100	Iskra Smolensk	1	−5	0