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Leningradets v Luki-Energiya

Leningradets

2–0Full time

Luki-Energiya

Cup · WED 14 OCT · Roshchino Arena

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 15:31

Leningradets 2–0 Luki-Energiya LENINGRADETS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Leningradets win~~54%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.322

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.412

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Leningradets win at 54%.
2′Much as we predicted: Leningradets was 54% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 0–0 · 54–26–20
2′KICK-OFF Leningradets v Luki-Energiya
24′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Leningradets
29′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Kirill Isaev · Leningradets
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Leningradets win: 54% at kick-off, 44% now
41′We said Leningradets at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 42%. 0–0 · 42–39–18
45′HALF-TIME Leningradets 0–0 Luki-Energiya
46′SECOND HALF Leningradets 0–0 Luki-Energiya
48′We said Leningradets at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–43–18
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Leningradets win 39%)
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Luki-Energiya · On: Egor Pankov · Off: Mikhail Selyukov
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Luki-Energiya · On: Viktor·Kiselev · Off: Oleg kuzmin
53′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Luki-Energiya · On: E. A. Pankov · Off: M. Selyukov Corrected
55′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Luki-Energiya · On: Egor Pankov · Off: Mikhail Selyukov
58′We said Leningradets at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–50–16
58′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Luki-Energiya · On: E. A. Pankov · Off: M. Selyukov Corrected
58′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Leningradets · On: D. Yakovlev · Off: I. Petrov Corrected
58′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Leningradets · On: D. Nikitin · Off: O. Kenfak Corrected
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Leningradets win: 54% at kick-off, 34% now
60′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Luki-Energiya · On: Egor Pankov · Off: Mikhail Selyukov
65′We said Leningradets at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–57–14
67′Leningradets find the net on 66′. 1–0. 1–0 · 87–12–1
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Leningradets 1–0 Luki-Energiya
67′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Leningradets · On: Anatoliy Makaro · Off: Ilya Petukhov
67′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Leningradets · On: Daniil Rodin · Off: Eldiyar Zarypbekov
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Leningradets win: 54% at kick-off, 87% now
67′THE CALL SWINGS · 67' Leningradets win is now our likeliest result at 87% (was Draw 12%)
68′We published Leningradets at 54%. Our model now makes it 87%. 1–0 · 87–12–1
70′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Luki-Energiya
76′We published Leningradets at 54%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Leningradets win: 54% at kick-off, 94% now
84′We published Leningradets at 54%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
84′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Luki-Energiya · On: Batyrkhan mustafin · Off: Jamal Dibirgadzhiev
88′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Leningradets · On: Nikita Kalugin · Off: Kirill Isaev
89′We published Leningradets at 54%. Our model now makes it 100%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Leningradets 2–0 Luki-Energiya · Maksim bachinski
90′A goal for Leningradets on 89′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
90′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 2–0 · 100–0–0
90′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Luki-Energiya · On: vasili lunev · Off: Ivan Galanin
90′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Luki-Energiya · On: Aleksandr Seraskhov · Off: Valentin Andyamov
FTFULL TIME Leningradets 2–0 Luki-Energiya
FTLeningradets 2–0 Luki-Energiya · Leningradets win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on Leningradets v Luki-EnergiyaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 12:31 · locked at kick-off

Leningradets win54%

Draw27%

Luki-Energiya win20%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 13:00

VenueRoshchino Arena

Line-ups

Leningradets

4-4-2

Luki-Energiya

4-3-1-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Leningradets

Luki-Energiya

35Days since last match34

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Luki-Energiya	3	+5	9
55	Leningradets	1	0	1

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Leningradets

4-4-2

1 E. Smirnov

2 S. Nikolaev

4 R. Kudryavtsev

37 K. Isaev

19 A. Maksetsov

10 E. Zarypbekov

52 I. Petukhov

5 Kirill morozov

14 Olivier Kenfack

77 M. Bachinskiy

83 I. Petrov

Coach · Aleksandr Shmarko

Substitutes

20 · Rustam Zobov

11 · D. Yakovlev

44 · N. Kalugin

78 · G. Kiselev

32 · A. Kulishev

21 · A. Makarov

7 · D. Nikitin

31 · I. Orlyansky

6 · Darley Carabali

16 · S. Starkov

Luki-Energiya

4-3-1-2

30 D. Saganovich

14 V. Andyamov

6 L. Ushakhin

5 Ilya Salnikov

74 Nikolay Edzhibia

7 I. Shvedyuk

88 I. Galanin

80 A. Pipo

23 O. Kuzmin

10 Mikhail Selyukov

9 D. Dibirgadzhiev

Coach · M. Salnikov

Substitutes

21 · E. Pankov

22 · Batyrkhan mustafin

99 · dmitriy melnik

4 · V. Lunev

8 · V. Kiselev

27 · Aleksandr Galimov

17 · A. Egorov

2 · A. Seraskhov

Our number · leningradets winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 12:31 · locked at kick-off

54% The market48%

Us54%

~~Market~~48%

We make Leningradets a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Leningradets v Luki-Energiya~~1.54 – 0.82

~~Last six in Cup~~W1 D1 L4 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 1 v 9~~55 v 3

~~The market · Leningradets win~~48% · ours 54%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · leningradets win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Leningradets win	54%	48%	+6
Draw	27%	26%	+1
Luki-Energiya win	20%	27%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	42%	40%	+2
Both teams to score	44%	44%	0
Over 1.5 goals	69%	64%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	21%	20%	+1
Leningradets or draw	80%	73%	+7
Leningradets clean sheet	44%	–	–
Luki-Energiya clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.2%

0123450 9.9 7.4 3.2 1 14.2 12.3 4.9 2 11.2 9.2 3.8 3 5.7 4.7 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Leningradets down, Luki-Energiya across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates every club on one scale from 407,336 league, cup and continental matches in 638 leagues up to 14 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Leningradets play in the Second League A - Division A Gold, Luki-Energiya in the Second League - Group 2.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Leningradets are at home.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

What the model expects

1.54 goals for Leningradets, 0.82 for Luki-Energiya. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 14 Oct 12:31. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~LUK 2–0 LEN

Form · last six in Cup

LENINGRADETS

LWLLLD1–3 · 4–0 · 0–2 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 1–1

LUKI-ENERGIYA

WWLWWW3–1 · 2–0 · 2–4 · 2–1 · 4–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kaluga	3	+7	9
2	FC Rostov	3	+7	9
3	Luki-Energiya	3	+5	9
4	Volna Nizhegorodskaya	3	+4	9
5	Spartak Moscow	3	+6	7
6	Chertanovo Moscow	3	+5	7
7	Volgar Astrakhan	3	+5	7
8	Dinamo Barnaul	4	+4	7
9	Murom	3	+4	7
10	Zenit	3	+4	7
11	Dinamo Kirov	3	+3	7
12	Dinamo St. Petersburg	3	+3	7
13	Znamya Noginsk	4	−1	7
14	Dynamo	3	+3	6
15	Spartak Kostroma	2	+3	6
16	Dinamo Stavropol	3	+1	6
17	FK Sokol Saratov	3	+2	5
18	Druzhba	3	+1	5
19	Krylia Sovetov	3	+1	5
20	FC Krasnodar	4	−1	5
21	Akron	4	−3	5
22	Kristall MEZ	2	+3	4
23	FC Tosno	2	+3	4
24	Torpedo Vladimir	2	+3	4
25	Amkar	2	+2	4
26	Dinamo Vologda	2	+2	4
27	Nosta	2	+1	4
28	Fakel	4	0	4
29	Ryazan	3	0	4
30	KDV	3	−1	4
31	FC Orenburg	3	−1	4
32	2Drots	3	−1	4
33	Akhmat	3	−2	4
34	Ska-khabarovsk	1	+4	3
35	Izberbash	2	+3	3
36	Shinnik Yaroslavl	1	+2	3
37	Chelyabinsk	2	+1	3
38	Nizhny Novgorod	1	+1	3
39	Tekstilshchik	1	+1	3
40	Rodina Moskva	3	0	3
41	FC 10	2	0	3
42	Torpedo Miass	2	0	3
43	Broke Boys	2	−1	3
44	Ilpar	2	−1	3
45	Lokomotiv	4	−1	3
46	SKA Rostov	2	0	2
47	FK Spartak Tambov	2	0	2
48	Baltika	3	−1	2
49	Rubin	3	−5	2
50	Alaniya Vladikavkaz	1	0	1
51	Novosibirsk	1	0	1
52	Zenit Penza	1	0	1
53	Enisey	1	0	1
54	FK Neftekhimik	1	0	1
55	Leningradets	1	0	1
56	Mashuk-KMV	1	0	1
57	Saturn Ramenskoye	1	0	1
58	Shumbrat	1	0	1
59	Angust Nazran	1	0	1
60	Dinamo Vladivostok	1	0	1
61	Metallurg Lipetsk	1	0	1
62	Volga Ulyanovsk	1	0	1
63	Avangard Kursk	2	−1	1
64	Astrakhan	2	−1	1
65	Spartak Nalchik	2	−3	1
66	CSKA Moscow	3	−3	1
67	Cherepovets	2	−3	1
68	Dinamo Makhachkala	3	−4	1
69	Irtysh Omsk	2	−5	1
70	Temp Barnaul	1	−1	0
71	Khimik Dzerzhinsk	1	−1	0
72	Kosmos Dolgoprudny	1	−1	0
73	Kristall	1	−1	0
74	Anri Vladivostok	1	−1	0
75	Bomik	1	−1	0
76	Izhevsk	1	−1	0
77	Nart Cherkessk	1	−1	0
78	Tyumen	1	−1	0
79	Ural	1	−1	0
80	Zvezda St. Petersburg	1	−1	0
81	Arsenal Tula	1	−1	0
82	FC UFA	1	−1	0
83	KAMAZ	1	−1	0
84	Metallurg Asha	1	−1	0
85	Veles	1	−1	0
86	Dinamo Bryansk	1	−2	0
87	FC Sochi	1	−2	0
88	Kvant	1	−2	0
89	Orel	1	−2	0
90	Pobeda	1	−2	0
91	Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod	1	−2	0
92	Rotor Volgograd	1	−2	0
93	Torpedo Moskva	1	−2	0
94	Tver	1	−2	0
95	Chita	1	−3	0
96	Kirovets Voskhozhdenie	1	−3	0
97	Salyut-Belgorod	1	−3	0
98	Strogino	1	−3	0
99	Anzhi	1	−4	0
100	Iskra Smolensk	1	−5	0