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Krylia Sovetov v Baltika

Krylia Sovetov

0–2Full time

Baltika

Cup · WED 14 OCT · Solidarnost Samara Arena

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 16:58

Krylia Sovetov 0–2 Baltika BALTIKA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Baltika win~~38%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.576

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.546

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Baltika win at 38%.
5′Little has changed for our model: Baltika 38% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 33–28–39
5′KICK-OFF Krylia Sovetov v Baltika
12′11′ and it is 0–1: Baltika have scored. 0–1 · 12–20–67
12′10′ and it is 0–1: Baltika have scored. 0–1 · 12–20–67
12′⚽ GOAL · 11' Krylia Sovetov 0–1 Baltika
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Baltika win: 38% at kick-off, 67% now
14′We said Baltika at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 67%. 0–1 · 12–20–67
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Baltika win: 38% at kick-off, 68% now
29′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Baltika
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 0–1 · 10–21–69
31′We said Baltika at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 0–1 · 9–21–70
31′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Baltika
34′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Mikhail Ryadno · Baltika
37′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Andrey Mendel · Baltika
45′HALF-TIME Krylia Sovetov 0–1 Baltika
46′SECOND HALF Krylia Sovetov 0–1 Baltika
54′We said Baltika at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–1 · 5–20–75
57′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Baltika · On: Chinonso Offor · Off: Egor Golenkov
57′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Baltika · On: Nathan Gassama · Off: Mikhail Ryadno
57′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Baltika · On: Eldar Ćivić · Off: Sergey Varatynov
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Baltika win: 38% at kick-off, 78% now
66′We said Baltika at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
67′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Baltika · On: Fahd Moufi · Off: German Iva
67′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Krylia Sovetov · On: Yuriy Gorshkov · Off: Mihajlo Banjac
67′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Krylia Sovetov · On: Maksim Vityugov · Off: Jimmy Marin
67′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Krylia Sovetov · On: Martin Kramarič · Off: Ilzat Akhmetov
68′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Baltika
69′10.0 shots for Krylia Sovetov, 4.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–1 · 2–16–81
69′GOAL DISALLOWED · 69' Baltika
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Krylia Sovetov 0–2 Baltika · Egor Golenkov
72′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Nathan Gassama · Baltika
74′We said Baltika at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 0–1 · 2–14–85
75′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Krylia Sovetov · On: Vitaliy Shitov · Off: Kazbek Mukailov
79′We said Baltika at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 0–2 · 0–1–99
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Krylia Sovetov 0–2 Baltika · Egor Golenkov
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Baltika win: 38% at kick-off, 88% now
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Baltika win: 38% at kick-off, 99% now
80′Baltika ahead on 77′ through Ilya Kirsh. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–1–99
80′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Krylia Sovetov · On: Nikita Saltykov · Off: Denis Makarov
80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Baltika · On: Konstantin Shiltsov · Off: Brayan Gil
82′We said Baltika at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 100%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
82′12.0 shots for Krylia Sovetov, 5.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–2 · 0–0–100
86′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Baltika
89′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Eldar Ćivić · Baltika
FTFULL TIME Krylia Sovetov 0–2 Baltika
FTKrylia Sovetov 0–2 Baltika · Baltika win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on Krylia Sovetov v BaltikaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 13:53 · locked at kick-off

Krylia Sovetov win33%

Draw29%

Baltika win38%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 14:15

VenueSolidarnost Samara Arena

Line-ups

Krylia Sovetov

4-2-3-1

Baltika

3-5-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Krylia Sovetov

Baltika

42Days since last match42

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
19	Krylia Sovetov	3	+1	5
48	Baltika	3	−1	2

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Krylia Sovetov

4-2-3-1

39 E. Frolov

5 D. Oroz

18 I. Lepskiy

3 T. Galdames

72 Dani Fernández

97 I. Akhmetov

20 K. Stolbov

77 D. Makarov

7 M. Banjac

67 Kazbek Mukailov

26 J. Marín

Coach · S. Bulatov

Substitutes

8 · M. Vityugov

73 · V. Shitov

14 · N. Saltykov

15 · N. Rasskazov

78 · D. Malikov Pavlovich

10 · M. Kramarič

80 · N. Kokarev

4 · Y. Gorshkov

22 · Fernando Costanza

17 · I. Chesnokov

23 · N. Chernov

47 · S. Bozhin

Baltika

3-5-2

44 E. Lyubakov

2 S. Varatynov

68 M. Ryadno

3 I. Kirsch

98 German Iva

21 E. Anderson

10 I. Petrov

8 A. Mendel

14 S. Kovač

69 E. Golenkov

91 B. Gil

Coach · A. Talalaev

Substitutes

22 · M. Beveev

77 · E. Ćivić

4 · N. Gassama

81 · I. Kukushkin

1 · E. Latyshonok

18 · F. Moufi

7 · K. Shiltsov

24 · L. Mouyokolo

9 · C. Offor

73 · M. Petrov

11 · I. Porokhov

42 · V. Pospelov

Our number · baltika winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 13:53 · locked at kick-off

38% The market40%

Us38%

~~Market~~40%

We make Baltika a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.2–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Krylia Sovetov v Baltika~~1.18 – 1.29

~~Last six in Cup~~W2 D4 L0 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 5 v 2~~19 v 48

~~The market · Baltika win~~40% · ours 38%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · baltika win The market, margin stripped

Published at 39%, 38% now. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Krylia Sovetov win	33%	30%	+2
Draw	29%	30%	−1
Baltika win	38%	40%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	45%	44%	+1
Both teams to score	51%	50%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	72%	68%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	24%	25%	−1
Krylia Sovetov or draw	62%	60%	+2
Krylia Sovetov clean sheet	28%	–	–
Baltika clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.8%

0123450 9.8 9.8 7.0 3.1 1 8.9 13.8 8.2 3.6 2 5.9 7.5 4.8 2.1 3 2.3 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Krylia Sovetov down, Baltika across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,300 Premier League matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.2% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 2.40 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Krylia Sovetov at home: 1.67 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Baltika away: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.18 goals for Krylia Sovetov, 1.29 for Baltika. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 14 Oct 13:53. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~KRY 0–2 BAL · BAL 2–0 KRY · KRY 1–1 BAL · BAL 2–1 KRY

Form · last six in Cup

KRYLIA SOVETOV

WDDWDD3–0 · 3–3 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–1

BALTIKA

DWLDLD1–1 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 2–3 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kaluga	3	+7	9
2	FC Rostov	3	+7	9
3	Luki-Energiya	3	+5	9
4	Volna Nizhegorodskaya	3	+4	9
5	Spartak Moscow	3	+6	7
6	Chertanovo Moscow	3	+5	7
7	Volgar Astrakhan	3	+5	7
8	Dinamo Barnaul	4	+4	7
9	Murom	3	+4	7
10	Zenit	3	+4	7
11	Dinamo Kirov	3	+3	7
12	Dinamo St. Petersburg	3	+3	7
13	Znamya Noginsk	4	−1	7
14	Dynamo	3	+3	6
15	Spartak Kostroma	2	+3	6
16	Dinamo Stavropol	3	+1	6
17	FK Sokol Saratov	3	+2	5
18	Druzhba	3	+1	5
19	Krylia Sovetov	3	+1	5
20	FC Krasnodar	4	−1	5
21	Akron	4	−3	5
22	Kristall MEZ	2	+3	4
23	FC Tosno	2	+3	4
24	Torpedo Vladimir	2	+3	4
25	Amkar	2	+2	4
26	Dinamo Vologda	2	+2	4
27	Nosta	2	+1	4
28	Fakel	4	0	4
29	Ryazan	3	0	4
30	KDV	3	−1	4
31	FC Orenburg	3	−1	4
32	2Drots	3	−1	4
33	Akhmat	3	−2	4
34	Ska-khabarovsk	1	+4	3
35	Izberbash	2	+3	3
36	Shinnik Yaroslavl	1	+2	3
37	Chelyabinsk	2	+1	3
38	Nizhny Novgorod	1	+1	3
39	Tekstilshchik	1	+1	3
40	Rodina Moskva	3	0	3
41	FC 10	2	0	3
42	Torpedo Miass	2	0	3
43	Broke Boys	2	−1	3
44	Ilpar	2	−1	3
45	Lokomotiv	4	−1	3
46	SKA Rostov	2	0	2
47	FK Spartak Tambov	2	0	2
48	Baltika	3	−1	2
49	Rubin	3	−5	2
50	Alaniya Vladikavkaz	1	0	1
51	Novosibirsk	1	0	1
52	Zenit Penza	1	0	1
53	Enisey	1	0	1
54	FK Neftekhimik	1	0	1
55	Leningradets	1	0	1
56	Mashuk-KMV	1	0	1
57	Saturn Ramenskoye	1	0	1
58	Shumbrat	1	0	1
59	Angust Nazran	1	0	1
60	Dinamo Vladivostok	1	0	1
61	Metallurg Lipetsk	1	0	1
62	Volga Ulyanovsk	1	0	1
63	Avangard Kursk	2	−1	1
64	Astrakhan	2	−1	1
65	Spartak Nalchik	2	−3	1
66	CSKA Moscow	3	−3	1
67	Cherepovets	2	−3	1
68	Dinamo Makhachkala	3	−4	1
69	Irtysh Omsk	2	−5	1
70	Temp Barnaul	1	−1	0
71	Khimik Dzerzhinsk	1	−1	0
72	Kosmos Dolgoprudny	1	−1	0
73	Kristall	1	−1	0
74	Anri Vladivostok	1	−1	0
75	Bomik	1	−1	0
76	Izhevsk	1	−1	0
77	Nart Cherkessk	1	−1	0
78	Tyumen	1	−1	0
79	Ural	1	−1	0
80	Zvezda St. Petersburg	1	−1	0
81	Arsenal Tula	1	−1	0
82	FC UFA	1	−1	0
83	KAMAZ	1	−1	0
84	Metallurg Asha	1	−1	0
85	Veles	1	−1	0
86	Dinamo Bryansk	1	−2	0
87	FC Sochi	1	−2	0
88	Kvant	1	−2	0
89	Orel	1	−2	0
90	Pobeda	1	−2	0
91	Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod	1	−2	0
92	Rotor Volgograd	1	−2	0
93	Torpedo Moskva	1	−2	0
94	Tver	1	−2	0
95	Chita	1	−3	0
96	Kirovets Voskhozhdenie	1	−3	0
97	Salyut-Belgorod	1	−3	0
98	Strogino	1	−3	0
99	Anzhi	1	−4	0
100	Iskra Smolensk	1	−5	0