FC Orenburg v Rodina Moskva
FC OrenburgRodina MoskvaCup · WED 28 OCT · Gazovik Stadium
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
FC Orenburg are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: FC Orenburg 54%, draw 24%, Rodina Moskva 22%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 55%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off
FC Orenburg win54%Rodina Moskva win22%Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 13:00
RoundGroup stage · matchday 5
VenueGazovik Stadium
Match timeline
All events
FC OrenburgMINRodina MoskvaEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
FC Orenburg
Rodina Moskva
Last match: 23 Oct · the Russian Premier League
Last match: 24 Oct · the Russian Premier League
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make FC Orenburg a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.1.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Orenburg win | 54% | 51% | +3 |
| Draw | 24% | 26% | −2 |
| Rodina Moskva win | 22% | 23% | −1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 50% | +5 |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 53% | +2 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | 73% | +5 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 30% | +2 |
| FC Orenburg or draw | 78% | 77% | +1 |
| FC Orenburg clean sheet | 34% | – | – |
| Rodina Moskva clean sheet | 17% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 2 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
2 meetings since 2021/22Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · Cup this season · since 4 Aug
FC ORENBURG
RODINA MOSKVA