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FC Krasnodar v Fakel

FC Krasnodar

0–2Full time

Fakel

Cup · TUE 13 OCT · Ozon Arena

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 21:37

FC Krasnodar 0–2 Fakel FC KRASNODAR WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC Krasnodar win~~76%

~~The market said~~69%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.483

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.302

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Krasnodar win at 76%.
2′Much as we predicted: FC Krasnodar was 76% before kick-off and our model makes it 76% now. 0–0 · 76–18–7
2′KICK-OFF FC Krasnodar v Fakel
3′🟨 YELLOW · 2' Fakel
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' FC Krasnodar win: 76% at kick-off, 66% now
32′We said FC Krasnodar at 76%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 64%. 0–0 · 64–28–8
33′SUBSTITUTION · 28' Fakel · On: Clayton Sampaio Pereira · Off: Stanislav Magkeev Corrected
35′PENALTY MISSED · 33' FC Krasnodar
36′A goal for FC Krasnodar on 33′ — 0–0. 0–0 · 62–30–8
37′Valentin Paltsev scores for FC Krasnodar on 32′ — 0–0. 0–0 · 62–31–8
41′We said FC Krasnodar at 76%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 59%. 0–0 · 59–33–8
43′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Fakel
45′HALF-TIME FC Krasnodar 0–0 Fakel
46′SECOND HALF FC Krasnodar 0–0 Fakel
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' FC Krasnodar win: 76% at kick-off, 56% now
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Fakel · On: Anton Kovalev · Off: Darko Todorovic Corrected
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' FC Krasnodar · On: Jhon Cordoba · Off: Joao Batxi Corrected
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' FC Krasnodar · On: Sergey Petrov · Off: Valentin Paltsev Corrected
49′We said FC Krasnodar at 76%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 54%. 0–0 · 54–38–8
53′FC Krasnodar have had 8.0 attempts to 3.0 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 51–41–8
55′We expected about 2.5 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 50–43–7
56′We said FC Krasnodar at 76%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–44–7
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' FC Krasnodar win: 76% at kick-off, 46% now
61′We said FC Krasnodar at 76%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–49–7
61′THE CALL SWINGS · 61' Draw is now our likeliest result at 49% (was FC Krasnodar win 44%)
64′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Fakel · On: Maksim Turishchev · Off: Aleksandr Koksharov Corrected
66′We said FC Krasnodar at 76%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–55–7
66′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Fakel · On: Axel Gnapi · Off: Belajdi Pusi Corrected
66′SUBSTITUTION · 62' FC Krasnodar · On: Christian · Off: Dmitriy Vorobyov Corrected
66′SUBSTITUTION · 63' FC Krasnodar · On: Daniil Utkin · Off: Efim Burkin Corrected
66′SUBSTITUTION · 63' FC Krasnodar · On: Aleksandr Chernikov · Off: Magomed Ozdoev Corrected
68′FC Krasnodar have had 12.0 attempts to 7.0 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 37–57–6
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' FC Krasnodar 0–1 Fakel
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' FC Krasnodar win: 76% at kick-off, 35% now
70′We said FC Krasnodar at 76%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 7%. 0–1 · 7–27–66
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' FC Krasnodar win: 76% at kick-off, 7% now
70′THE CALL SWINGS · 70' Fakel win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Draw 27%)
71′69′ and it is 0–1: Fakel have scored. 0–1 · 7–26–67
71′⚽ GOAL · 69' FC Krasnodar 0–1 Fakel
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' FC Krasnodar win: 76% at kick-off, 6% now
78′We said FC Krasnodar at 76%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 3%. 0–1 · 3–20–77
81′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Fakel · On: Hodaifa El Mhassani · Off: Ilnur Alshin Corrected
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' FC Krasnodar 0–2 Fakel · Abdula Bagamaev
82′⚽ GOAL · 81' FC Krasnodar 0–2 Fakel
83′Fakel find the net on 81′. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–1–99
86′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 0–2 · 0–1–99
86′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Fakel
90′FC Krasnodar have had 16.0 attempts to 11.0 and it is still 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100
90′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Fakel
FTFULL TIME FC Krasnodar 0–2 Fakel
FTFC Krasnodar 0–2 Fakel · FC Krasnodar win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 17:57 · locked at kick-off

FC Krasnodar win76%

Draw18%

Fakel win6%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 18:45

VenueOzon Arena

Line-ups

FC Krasnodar

4-3-3

Fakel

3-4-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

FC Krasnodar

Fakel

42Days since last match42

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
18	FC Krasnodar	3	+1	5
64	Fakel	3	−2	1

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

FC Krasnodar

4-3-3

16 A. Koryakin

17 V. Paltsev

3 V. Tormena

2 M. Rodriguez

59 A. Khmarin

6 K. Lenini

27 E. Burkin

21 M. Ozdoev

23 J. Boselli

10 D. Vorobyev

11 Joao Batxi

Coach · Murad Musaev

Substitutes

1 · S. Agkatsev

15 · L. Olaza

98 · S. Petrov

40 · I. Vakhania

5 · Jubal Junior

53 · A. Chernikov

18 · Christian

29 · E. Guseynov

47 · D. Utkin

9 · J. Cordoba

Fakel

3-4-3

96 I. Obukhov

5 A. Gabaraev

27 S. Magkeev

53 M. Bardachev

55 D. Todorovic

8 A. Bagamaev

52 R. Netfullin

10 I. Alshin

11 A. Sutormin

19 B. Pusi

90 A. Koksharov

Coach · Oleg Vasilenko

Substitutes

35 · V. Dorovskikh

1 · D. Frolkin

22 · H. El Mhassani

40 · Clayton Sampaio

44 · Y. Zhuravlev

97 · B. Magomedov

23 · V. Yakimov

18 · K. Simonov

17 · A. Kovalev

9 · A. Gnapi Dable

7 · M. Turishchev

Our number · fc krasnodar winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 17:57 · locked at kick-off

76% The market69%

Us76%

~~Market~~69%

We make FC Krasnodar a 76% chance to win. The market has them at 69%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–0.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · fc krasnodar win The market, margin stripped

Published at 73%, 76% now. The market has gone from 68% to 69% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Krasnodar win	76%	69%	+7
Draw	18%	19%	−2
Fakel win	6%	11%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	46%	53%	−7
Both teams to score	31%	46%	−15
Over 1.5 goals	72%	75%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	25%	33%	−8
FC Krasnodar or draw	94%	89%	+5
FC Krasnodar clean sheet	65%	–	–
Fakel clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 17.5%

0123450 8.3 3.3 1 16.6 7.6 2 17.5 7.6 3 12.1 5.3 4 6.3 2.7 5 2.6

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Krasnodar down, Fakel across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates every club on one scale from 408,274 league, cup and continental matches in 638 leagues up to 13 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

FC Krasnodar play in the Premier League, Fakel in the First League.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: FC Krasnodar are at home.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

What the model expects

2.07 goals for FC Krasnodar, 0.44 for Fakel. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~FAK 1–1 FCK

Form · last six in Cup

FC KRASNODAR

DDDDWD0–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–1

FAKEL

DWLLLD1–1 · 1–0 · 2–3 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kaluga	3	+7	9
2	FC Rostov	3	+7	9
3	Luki-Energiya	3	+5	9
4	Volna Nizhegorodskaya	3	+4	9
5	Spartak Moscow	3	+6	7
6	Chertanovo Moscow	3	+5	7
7	Volgar Astrakhan	3	+5	7
8	Dinamo Barnaul	4	+4	7
9	Murom	3	+4	7
10	Zenit	3	+4	7
11	Dinamo Kirov	3	+3	7
12	Dinamo St. Petersburg	3	+3	7
13	Znamya Noginsk	4	−1	7
14	Dynamo	3	+3	6
15	Dinamo Stavropol	3	+1	6
16	FK Sokol Saratov	3	+2	5
17	Druzhba	3	+1	5
18	FC Krasnodar	3	+1	5
19	Krylia Sovetov	3	+1	5
20	Kristall MEZ	2	+3	4
21	FC Tosno	2	+3	4
22	Torpedo Vladimir	2	+3	4
23	Amkar	2	+2	4
24	Dinamo Vologda	2	+2	4
25	Nosta	2	+1	4
26	Ryazan	3	0	4
27	KDV	3	−1	4
28	FC Orenburg	3	−1	4
29	2Drots	3	−1	4
30	Akhmat	3	−2	4
31	Akron	3	−3	4
32	Ska-khabarovsk	1	+4	3
33	Izberbash	2	+3	3
34	Chelyabinsk	1	+2	3
35	Shinnik Yaroslavl	1	+2	3
36	Spartak Kostroma	1	+2	3
37	Nizhny Novgorod	1	+1	3
38	Tekstilshchik	1	+1	3
39	Rodina Moskva	3	0	3
40	FC 10	2	0	3
41	Torpedo Miass	2	0	3
42	Broke Boys	2	−1	3
43	Ilpar	2	−1	3
44	SKA Rostov	2	0	2
45	FK Spartak Tambov	2	0	2
46	Baltika	3	−1	2
47	Lokomotiv	3	−1	2
48	Rubin	3	−5	2
49	Alaniya Vladikavkaz	1	0	1
50	Novosibirsk	1	0	1
51	Zenit Penza	1	0	1
52	Enisey	1	0	1
53	FK Neftekhimik	1	0	1
54	Leningradets	1	0	1
55	Mashuk-KMV	1	0	1
56	Saturn Ramenskoye	1	0	1
57	Shumbrat	1	0	1
58	Angust Nazran	1	0	1
59	Dinamo Vladivostok	1	0	1
60	Metallurg Lipetsk	1	0	1
61	Volga Ulyanovsk	1	0	1
62	Avangard Kursk	2	−1	1
63	Astrakhan	2	−1	1
64	Fakel	3	−2	1
65	Spartak Nalchik	2	−3	1
66	CSKA Moscow	3	−3	1
67	Cherepovets	2	−3	1
68	Dinamo Makhachkala	3	−4	1
69	Irtysh Omsk	2	−5	1
70	Temp Barnaul	1	−1	0
71	Khimik Dzerzhinsk	1	−1	0
72	Kosmos Dolgoprudny	1	−1	0
73	Kristall	1	−1	0
74	Anri Vladivostok	1	−1	0
75	Bomik	1	−1	0
76	Izhevsk	1	−1	0
77	Nart Cherkessk	1	−1	0
78	Tyumen	1	−1	0
79	Ural	1	−1	0
80	Zvezda St. Petersburg	1	−1	0
81	Arsenal Tula	1	−1	0
82	FC UFA	1	−1	0
83	KAMAZ	1	−1	0
84	Metallurg Asha	1	−1	0
85	Veles	1	−1	0
86	Dinamo Bryansk	1	−2	0
87	FC Sochi	1	−2	0
88	Kvant	1	−2	0
89	Orel	1	−2	0
90	Pobeda	1	−2	0
91	Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod	1	−2	0
92	Rotor Volgograd	1	−2	0
93	Torpedo Moskva	1	−2	0
94	Tver	1	−2	0
95	Chita	1	−3	0
96	Kirovets Voskhozhdenie	1	−3	0
97	Salyut-Belgorod	1	−3	0
98	Strogino	1	−3	0
99	Anzhi	1	−4	0
100	Iskra Smolensk	1	−5	0