Fakel v Akhmat
FakelAkhmatCup · TUE 27 OCT · Fakel Stadium
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Akhmat are narrow favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Fakel 28%, draw 32%, Akhmat 40%. Over 2.5 goals 31%, both teams to score 38%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off
Fakel win28%Akhmat win40%Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 15:00
RoundGroup stage · matchday 5
VenueFakel Stadium
Match timeline
All events
FakelMINAkhmatEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Fakel
Akhmat
Last match: 24 Oct · the Russian Premier League
Last match: 23 Oct · the Russian Premier League
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Akhmat a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 0.8–1.1.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fakel win | 28% | 32% | −4 |
| Draw | 32% | 26% | +6 |
| Akhmat win | 40% | 42% | −2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 31% | 50% | −19 |
| Both teams to score | 38% | 55% | −17 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 58% | 73% | −15 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 13% | 29% | −16 |
| Fakel or draw | 60% | 58% | +2 |
| Fakel clean sheet | 34% | – | – |
| Akhmat clean sheet | 43% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 2 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
8 meetings since 2021/22Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · Cup this season · since 5 Aug
FAKEL
AKHMAT