Enisey v Kaluga prediction · Cup

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 15:01

Enisey 2–0 Kaluga ENISEY WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Enisey win~~59%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.259

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.463

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Enisey win at 59%.
1′Much as we predicted: Enisey was 59% before kick-off and our model makes it 59% now. 0–0 · 59–24–17
1′KICK-OFF Enisey v Kaluga
25′Enisey find the net on 24′. 1–0. 1–0 · 83–13–4
25′⚽ GOAL · 24' Enisey 1–0 Kaluga
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Enisey win: 59% at kick-off, 83% now
26′We published Enisey at 59%. Our model now makes it 83%. 1–0 · 83–13–4
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 83–13–4
45′HALF-TIME Enisey 1–0 Kaluga
45′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Enisey
48′SECOND HALF Enisey 1–0 Kaluga
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Enisey · On: Rostislav Ogienko · Off: David Kokoev Corrected
50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Enisey · On: Amir Batyrev · Off: Egor Ivanov
50′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Amir Batyrev · Enisey
52′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Kaluga · On: Yaroslav Makarenko · Off: Igor Sokolov
52′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Kaluga · On: Gleb Bakharev · Off: Yaroslav Sychev
55′We published Enisey at 59%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Enisey win: 59% at kick-off, 89% now
71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Enisey · On: Aleksandr Kanaplin · Off: David Kokoev
72′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Enisey · On: Rostislav Ogienko · Off: Aleksandr Nadolskiy
72′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Kaluga · On: Amur Balkizov · Off: Dmitriy Sherstobitov
74′A goal for Enisey on 72′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
74′⚽ GOAL · 72' Enisey 2–0 Kaluga
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Enisey win: 59% at kick-off, 99% now
75′We published Enisey at 59%. Our model now makes it 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
77′We published Enisey at 59%. Our model now makes it 100%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
82′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Kaluga · On: Evgeniy Mukhin · Off: Artem Nadolsky
82′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Kaluga · On: D. Klishchenko · Off: Y. Makarenko Corrected
FTFULL TIME Enisey 2–0 Kaluga
FTEnisey 2–0 Kaluga · Enisey win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on Enisey v KalugaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 12:01 · locked at kick-off

Enisey win59%

Draw24%

Kaluga win17%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 12:30

VenueCentral Stadium (Krasnoyarsk)

Line-ups

Enisey

4-2-3-1

Kaluga

4-1-2-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Enisey

Kaluga

35Days since last match35

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kaluga	3	+7	9
53	Enisey	1	0	1

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Enisey

4-2-3-1

1 M. Oparin

15 A. Balakhonov

22 A. Gyurdzhan

3 Y. Tses

10 A. Əliyev

21 E. Ivanov

17 D. Kokoev

18 Aleksandr Nadolsky

90 A. Lomakin

81 R. Pechura

27 L. Ratković

Coach · V. Molchanov

Substitutes

39 · A. Sorokin

6 · A. Batyrev

8 · A. Kanaplin

62 · V. Kravtsov

36 · V. Lutashev

33 · A. Maslovskiy

87 · A. Mazurin

77 · R. Ogienko

75 · A. Okladnikov

25 · N. Shershov

51 · E. Shupyakov

7 · A. Chukanov

Kaluga

4-1-2-3

88 R. Tashaev

33 D. Daliev

14 S. Chibisov

5 V. Konovalov

18 L. Ivanushkin

59 D. Sherstobitov

27 I. Muminov

94 A. Nadolskiy

32 I. Sokolov

17 Y. Sychev

19 N. Y. Kuzin

Coach · Dmitri Khomukha

Substitutes

55 · G. Bakharev

37 · D. Shevchenko

66 · Y. Makarenko

78 · E. Mukhin

80 · A. Balkizov

1 · S. Eshchenko

8 · Danila Klishchenko

2 · S. Krotov

Our number · enisey winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 12:01 · locked at kick-off

59% The market45%

Us59%

~~Market~~45%

We make Enisey a 59% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 14 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Enisey v Kaluga~~1.72 – 0.81

~~Last six in Cup~~W2 D2 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 1 v 9~~53 v 1

~~The market · Enisey win~~45% · ours 59%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · enisey win The market, margin stripped

Published at 61%, 59% now. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Enisey win	59%	45%	+14
Draw	24%	32%	−8
Kaluga win	17%	23%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	46%	44%	+2
Both teams to score	46%	50%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	72%	68%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	25%	26%	−1
Enisey or draw	83%	77%	+6
Enisey clean sheet	44%	–	–
Kaluga clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.3%

0123450 8.3 6.1 2.6 1 13.3 11.5 4.5 2 11.8 9.5 3.9 3 6.8 5.5 2.2 4 2.9 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Enisey down, Kaluga across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates every club on one scale from 407,336 league, cup and continental matches in 638 leagues up to 14 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Enisey play in the First League, Kaluga in the Second League A - Division A Gold.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Enisey are at home.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two in this competition, so this step adds nothing.

What the model expects

1.72 goals for Enisey, 0.81 for Kaluga. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 14 Oct 12:00. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in Cup since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in Cup

ENISEY

WLLWDD2–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–1

KALUGA

DLLWWW0–0 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 5–0 · 2–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kaluga	3	+7	9
2	FC Rostov	3	+7	9
3	Luki-Energiya	3	+5	9
4	Volna Nizhegorodskaya	3	+4	9
5	Spartak Moscow	3	+6	7
6	Chertanovo Moscow	3	+5	7
7	Volgar Astrakhan	3	+5	7
8	Dinamo Barnaul	4	+4	7
9	Murom	3	+4	7
10	Zenit	3	+4	7
11	Dinamo Kirov	3	+3	7
12	Dinamo St. Petersburg	3	+3	7
13	Znamya Noginsk	4	−1	7
14	Dynamo	3	+3	6
15	Spartak Kostroma	2	+3	6
16	Dinamo Stavropol	3	+1	6
17	FK Sokol Saratov	3	+2	5
18	Druzhba	3	+1	5
19	Krylia Sovetov	3	+1	5
20	FC Krasnodar	4	−1	5
21	Akron	4	−3	5
22	Kristall MEZ	2	+3	4
23	FC Tosno	2	+3	4
24	Torpedo Vladimir	2	+3	4
25	Amkar	2	+2	4
26	Dinamo Vologda	2	+2	4
27	Nosta	2	+1	4
28	Fakel	4	0	4
29	Ryazan	3	0	4
30	KDV	3	−1	4
31	FC Orenburg	3	−1	4
32	2Drots	3	−1	4
33	Akhmat	3	−2	4
34	Ska-khabarovsk	1	+4	3
35	Izberbash	2	+3	3
36	Shinnik Yaroslavl	1	+2	3
37	Chelyabinsk	2	+1	3
38	Nizhny Novgorod	1	+1	3
39	Tekstilshchik	1	+1	3
40	Rodina Moskva	3	0	3
41	FC 10	2	0	3
42	Torpedo Miass	2	0	3
43	Broke Boys	2	−1	3
44	Ilpar	2	−1	3
45	Lokomotiv	4	−1	3
46	SKA Rostov	2	0	2
47	FK Spartak Tambov	2	0	2
48	Baltika	3	−1	2
49	Rubin	3	−5	2
50	Alaniya Vladikavkaz	1	0	1
51	Novosibirsk	1	0	1
52	Zenit Penza	1	0	1
53	Enisey	1	0	1
54	FK Neftekhimik	1	0	1
55	Leningradets	1	0	1
56	Mashuk-KMV	1	0	1
57	Saturn Ramenskoye	1	0	1
58	Shumbrat	1	0	1
59	Angust Nazran	1	0	1
60	Dinamo Vladivostok	1	0	1
61	Metallurg Lipetsk	1	0	1
62	Volga Ulyanovsk	1	0	1
63	Avangard Kursk	2	−1	1
64	Astrakhan	2	−1	1
65	Spartak Nalchik	2	−3	1
66	CSKA Moscow	3	−3	1
67	Cherepovets	2	−3	1
68	Dinamo Makhachkala	3	−4	1
69	Irtysh Omsk	2	−5	1
70	Temp Barnaul	1	−1	0
71	Khimik Dzerzhinsk	1	−1	0
72	Kosmos Dolgoprudny	1	−1	0
73	Kristall	1	−1	0
74	Anri Vladivostok	1	−1	0
75	Bomik	1	−1	0
76	Izhevsk	1	−1	0
77	Nart Cherkessk	1	−1	0
78	Tyumen	1	−1	0
79	Ural	1	−1	0
80	Zvezda St. Petersburg	1	−1	0
81	Arsenal Tula	1	−1	0
82	FC UFA	1	−1	0
83	KAMAZ	1	−1	0
84	Metallurg Asha	1	−1	0
85	Veles	1	−1	0
86	Dinamo Bryansk	1	−2	0
87	FC Sochi	1	−2	0
88	Kvant	1	−2	0
89	Orel	1	−2	0
90	Pobeda	1	−2	0
91	Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod	1	−2	0
92	Rotor Volgograd	1	−2	0
93	Torpedo Moskva	1	−2	0
94	Tver	1	−2	0
95	Chita	1	−3	0
96	Kirovets Voskhozhdenie	1	−3	0
97	Salyut-Belgorod	1	−3	0
98	Strogino	1	−3	0
99	Anzhi	1	−4	0
100	Iskra Smolensk	1	−5	0