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Dinamo Makhachkala v Zenit

Dinamo Makhachkala

1–2Full time

Zenit

Cup · WED 14 OCT · Anzhi Arena

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 19:16

Dinamo Makhachkala 1–2 Zenit ZENIT WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Zenit win~~58%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.266

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.260

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Zenit win at 58%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Zenit 58% before kick-off, 59% now. 0–0 · 16–24–59
2′KICK-OFF Dinamo Makhachkala v Zenit
6′Dinamo Makhachkala find the net on 5′. 1–0. 1–0 · 42–27–31
6′⚽ GOAL · 5' Dinamo Makhachkala 1–0 Zenit
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 6' Zenit win: 58% at kick-off, 31% now
6′THE CALL SWINGS · 6' Dinamo Makhachkala win is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Zenit win 31%)
7′We said Zenit at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 31%. 1–0 · 42–27–31
11′We said Zenit at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–0 · 43–28–29
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 14' Zenit win: 58% at kick-off, 28% now
24′We said Zenit at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–0 · 47–29–24
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 49–29–22
36′We said Zenit at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 51–29–19
37′SUBSTITUTION · 35' Dinamo Makhachkala · On: Mohammadjavad Hosseinnejad · Off: Vladimir Khubulov
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Dinamo Makhachkala 1–1 Zenit
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Zenit win: 58% at kick-off, 48% now
38′THE CALL SWINGS · 38' Zenit win is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Dinamo Makhachkala win 16%)
41′Kevin Andrade scores for Zenit on 37′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 16–38–46
42′We said Zenit at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 46%. 1–1 · 16–38–46
45′We said Zenit at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 1–1 · 16–40–44
45′Zenit have had 7.0 attempts to 2.0 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 16–40–44
45′8.0 shots for Zenit, 2.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 16–40–44
45′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Zenit
45′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Jhon Jhon · Zenit
45′HALF-TIME Dinamo Makhachkala 1–1 Zenit
47′SECOND HALF Dinamo Makhachkala 1–1 Zenit
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Zenit win 40%)
54′We said Zenit at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 14–46–39
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Zenit win: 58% at kick-off, 38% now
57′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Dinamo Makhachkala · On: Valdemiro Pinto Domingos · Off: Gamid Agalarov
57′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Dinamo Makhachkala · On: Daler Kuzyaev · Off: Nikita Glushkov
58′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Dinamo Makhachkala · On: Makhmud Makhamadzhonov · Off: Temirkan Sundukov
66′65′ and it is 1–2: Zenit have scored. 1–2 · 1–11–88
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Dinamo Makhachkala 1–2 Zenit · Kevin Andrade
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Zenit win: 58% at kick-off, 88% now
66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' Zenit win is now our likeliest result at 88% (was Draw 11%)
68′We said Zenit at 58% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 89%. 1–2 · 1–10–89
68′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Zenit · On: Gustavo Mantuan · Off: Daniil Kondakov
69′3 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 1–10–89
70′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Zenit · On: Amir Musaev · Off: Vadim Shilov
70′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Zenit · On: Douglas Santos · Off: Artem Karpukas
70′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Dinamo Makhachkala
71′We said Zenit at 58% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–2 · 1–10–90
73′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Kirill Zinovich · Dinamo Makhachkala
73′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Dinamo Makhachkala · On: Marat Apshatsev · Off: Dmitri Aleksandrov Corrected
76′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Dinamo Makhachkala
79′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Daler Kuzyaev · Dinamo Makhachkala
83′We said Zenit at 58% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Zenit win: 58% at kick-off, 98% now
FTFULL TIME Dinamo Makhachkala 1–2 Zenit
FTDinamo Makhachkala 1–2 Zenit · Zenit win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on Dinamo Makhachkala v ZenitBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 16:02 · locked at kick-off

Dinamo Makhachkala win16%

Draw26%

Zenit win58%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 16:30

VenueAnzhi Arena

Line-ups

Dinamo Makhachkala

4-2-3-1

Zenit

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Dinamo Makhachkala

Zenit

42Days since last match42

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Zenit	3	+4	7
68	Dinamo Makhachkala	3	−4	1

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Dinamo Makhachkala

4-2-3-1

39 T. Magomedov

13 S. Kagermazov

24 A. Alarcón

43 I. Akhmedov

77 T. Sundukov

30 D. Aleksandrov

21 Abdulpasha Dzhabrailov

19 K. Zinovich

47 N. Glushkov

8 V. Khubulov

25 G. Agalarov

Coach · V. Evseev

Substitutes

1 · D. Volk

28 · S. Serderov

11 · Miro

23 · M. Makhamadjonov

9 · R. Magomedov

88 · D. Lesovoy

14 · D. Kuzyaev

33 · N. Karabashev

10 · M. Hosseinnezhad

6 · M. Apshatsev

99 · M. Alibekov

Zenit

4-2-3-1

57 B. Moskvichev

15 V. Karavaev

33 Nino

25 K. Andrade

66 R. Vega

21 A. Erokhin

93 A. Karpukas

51 V. Shilov

61 D. Kondakov

14 Jhon Jhon

9 Felipe Augusto

Coach · S. Semak

Substitutes

3 · Douglas Santos

31 · Gustavo Mantuan

38 · A. Musaev

47 · K. Obonin

82 · S. Volkov

96 · Maksim Zaytsev

75 · B. Levandovskiy

Our number · zenit winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 16:02 · locked at kick-off

58% The market58%

Us58%

~~Market~~58%

We make Zenit a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 0.7–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dinamo Makhachkala v Zenit~~0.74 – 1.67

~~Last six in Cup~~W1 D0 L5 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 1 v 7~~68 v 10

~~The market · Zenit win~~58% · ours 58%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · zenit win The market, margin stripped

Published at 56%, 58% now. The market has gone from 59% to 58% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dinamo Makhachkala win	16%	18%	−2
Draw	26%	23%	+3
Zenit win	58%	58%	0
Over 2.5 goals	43%	54%	−11
Both teams to score	43%	53%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	70%	77%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	22%	33%	−10
Dinamo Makhachkala or draw	42%	42%	0
Dinamo Makhachkala clean sheet	19%	–	–
Zenit clean sheet	48%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 14.0%

0123450 10.2 14.0 12.4 6.9 3.0 1 5.7 11.9 9.0 5.0 2.1 2 2.5 4.1 3.4 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dinamo Makhachkala down, Zenit across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,300 Premier League matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.2% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 2.25 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dinamo Makhachkala at home: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Zenit away: 2.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.74 goals for Dinamo Makhachkala, 1.67 for Zenit. Most likely score 0–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 14 Oct 16:01. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~DIN 0–1 ZEN · ZEN 4–0 DIN · DIN 0–1 ZEN · ZEN 2–1 DIN

Form · last six in Cup

DINAMO MAKHACHKALA

LLWLLL0–1 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 2–3 · 1–3 · 0–4

ZENIT

LWLWWW0–2 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kaluga	3	+7	9
2	FC Rostov	3	+7	9
3	Luki-Energiya	3	+5	9
4	Volna Nizhegorodskaya	3	+4	9
5	Spartak Moscow	3	+6	7
6	Chertanovo Moscow	3	+5	7
7	Volgar Astrakhan	3	+5	7
8	Dinamo Barnaul	4	+4	7
9	Murom	3	+4	7
10	Zenit	3	+4	7
11	Dinamo Kirov	3	+3	7
12	Dinamo St. Petersburg	3	+3	7
13	Znamya Noginsk	4	−1	7
14	Dynamo	3	+3	6
15	Spartak Kostroma	2	+3	6
16	Dinamo Stavropol	3	+1	6
17	FK Sokol Saratov	3	+2	5
18	Druzhba	3	+1	5
19	Krylia Sovetov	3	+1	5
20	FC Krasnodar	4	−1	5
21	Akron	4	−3	5
22	Kristall MEZ	2	+3	4
23	FC Tosno	2	+3	4
24	Torpedo Vladimir	2	+3	4
25	Amkar	2	+2	4
26	Dinamo Vologda	2	+2	4
27	Nosta	2	+1	4
28	Fakel	4	0	4
29	Ryazan	3	0	4
30	KDV	3	−1	4
31	FC Orenburg	3	−1	4
32	2Drots	3	−1	4
33	Akhmat	3	−2	4
34	Ska-khabarovsk	1	+4	3
35	Izberbash	2	+3	3
36	Shinnik Yaroslavl	1	+2	3
37	Chelyabinsk	2	+1	3
38	Nizhny Novgorod	1	+1	3
39	Tekstilshchik	1	+1	3
40	Rodina Moskva	3	0	3
41	FC 10	2	0	3
42	Torpedo Miass	2	0	3
43	Broke Boys	2	−1	3
44	Ilpar	2	−1	3
45	Lokomotiv	4	−1	3
46	SKA Rostov	2	0	2
47	FK Spartak Tambov	2	0	2
48	Baltika	3	−1	2
49	Rubin	3	−5	2
50	Alaniya Vladikavkaz	1	0	1
51	Novosibirsk	1	0	1
52	Zenit Penza	1	0	1
53	Enisey	1	0	1
54	FK Neftekhimik	1	0	1
55	Leningradets	1	0	1
56	Mashuk-KMV	1	0	1
57	Saturn Ramenskoye	1	0	1
58	Shumbrat	1	0	1
59	Angust Nazran	1	0	1
60	Dinamo Vladivostok	1	0	1
61	Metallurg Lipetsk	1	0	1
62	Volga Ulyanovsk	1	0	1
63	Avangard Kursk	2	−1	1
64	Astrakhan	2	−1	1
65	Spartak Nalchik	2	−3	1
66	CSKA Moscow	3	−3	1
67	Cherepovets	2	−3	1
68	Dinamo Makhachkala	3	−4	1
69	Irtysh Omsk	2	−5	1
70	Temp Barnaul	1	−1	0
71	Khimik Dzerzhinsk	1	−1	0
72	Kosmos Dolgoprudny	1	−1	0
73	Kristall	1	−1	0
74	Anri Vladivostok	1	−1	0
75	Bomik	1	−1	0
76	Izhevsk	1	−1	0
77	Nart Cherkessk	1	−1	0
78	Tyumen	1	−1	0
79	Ural	1	−1	0
80	Zvezda St. Petersburg	1	−1	0
81	Arsenal Tula	1	−1	0
82	FC UFA	1	−1	0
83	KAMAZ	1	−1	0
84	Metallurg Asha	1	−1	0
85	Veles	1	−1	0
86	Dinamo Bryansk	1	−2	0
87	FC Sochi	1	−2	0
88	Kvant	1	−2	0
89	Orel	1	−2	0
90	Pobeda	1	−2	0
91	Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod	1	−2	0
92	Rotor Volgograd	1	−2	0
93	Torpedo Moskva	1	−2	0
94	Tver	1	−2	0
95	Chita	1	−3	0
96	Kirovets Voskhozhdenie	1	−3	0
97	Salyut-Belgorod	1	−3	0
98	Strogino	1	−3	0
99	Anzhi	1	−4	0
100	Iskra Smolensk	1	−5	0