CSKA Moscow v FC Rostov prediction · Cup

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 21:30

CSKA Moscow 4–0 FC Rostov CSKA MOSCOW WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said CSKA Moscow win~~57%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.287

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.271

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said CSKA Moscow win at 57%.
3′Much as we predicted: CSKA Moscow was 57% before kick-off and our model makes it 57% now. 0–0 · 57–25–18
3′KICK-OFF CSKA Moscow v FC Rostov
4′We published CSKA Moscow at 57%. Our model now makes it 82%. 1–0 · 82–13–6
4′⚽ GOAL · 2' CSKA Moscow 1–0 FC Rostov
5′3′ and it is 1–0: CSKA Moscow have scored. 1–0 · 82–13–6
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' CSKA Moscow win: 57% at kick-off, 82% now
5′⚽ GOAL · 5' CSKA Moscow 2–0 FC Rostov
6′We published CSKA Moscow at 57%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
6′CSKA Moscow find the net on 5′. 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' CSKA Moscow win: 57% at kick-off, 95% now
12′A goal for CSKA Moscow on 11′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
12′⚽ GOAL · 5' CSKA Moscow 3–0 FC Rostov · Henrique Carmo (assist Kirill Glebov)
12′🟨 YELLOW · 10' FC Rostov
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' CSKA Moscow win: 57% at kick-off, 99% now
17′🟨 YELLOW · 10' Daniil Golikov · FC Rostov
31′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 99–1–0
41′We published CSKA Moscow at 57%. Our model now makes it 100%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
45′Ivan Oblyakov scores for CSKA Moscow on 10′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
45′HALF-TIME CSKA Moscow 3–0 FC Rostov
45′🟨 YELLOW · 9' Daniil Golikov · FC Rostov
46′SECOND HALF CSKA Moscow 3–0 FC Rostov
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' CSKA Moscow · On: Danil Krugovoy · Off: Mohamed Azzi
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' FC Rostov · On: Viktor Melekhin · Off: Andrey Langovich
51′SUBSTITUTION · 46' FC Rostov · On: Aleksey Mironov · Off: Yaroslav Mikhailov
52′51′ and it is 4–0: CSKA Moscow have scored. 4–0 · 100–0–0
52′⚽ GOAL · 51' CSKA Moscow 4–0 FC Rostov
53′4 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
54′SUBSTITUTION · 46' CSKA Moscow · On: Imran Firov · Off: Kirill Glebov
66′SUBSTITUTION · 62' CSKA Moscow · On: Matheus Alves · Off: Ivan Oblyakov
72′FC Rostov find the net on 71′. 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
72′SUBSTITUTION · 60' FC Rostov · On: Konstantin Kuchaev · Off: Maksim Mukhin
72′SUBSTITUTION · 60' FC Rostov · On: Timur Suleymanov · Off: Anton Shamonin
72′SUBSTITUTION · 62' CSKA Moscow · On: Pavel Filyushin · Off: Kirill Danilov
84′🟨 YELLOW · 83' FC Rostov
86′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Aleksey Mironov · FC Rostov
90′FC Rostov have had 12.0 attempts to 7.0 and it is still 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
90′SUBSTITUTION · 88' FC Rostov · On: Ivan Komarov · Off: Ronaldo
FTFULL TIME CSKA Moscow 4–0 FC Rostov
FTCSKA Moscow 4–0 FC Rostov · CSKA Moscow win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on CSKA Moscow v FC RostovBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 18:21 · locked at kick-off

CSKA Moscow win57%

Draw26%

FC Rostov win18%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 18:45

VenueVEB Arena

Line-ups

CSKA Moscow

5-4-1

FC Rostov

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

CSKA Moscow

FC Rostov

43Days since last match43

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	FC Rostov	3	+7	9
66	CSKA Moscow	3	−3	1

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

CSKA Moscow

5-4-1

39 M. Borisko

2 Matheus Reis

23 Dzhamalutdin Abdulkadyrov

79 Kirill Danilov

4 João Victor

21 M. Azzi

20 Matija Popovic

17 K. Glebov

10 I. Oblyakov

31 M. Kislyak

37 Henrique

Coach · Dmitriy Igdisamov

Substitutes

11 · T. Musaev

32 · L. Gondou

49 · V. Torop

85 · Egor Besaev

3 · D. Krugovoy

18 · D. Kozlov

7 · Matheus Alves

19 · I. Oleynikov

62 · I. Firov

84 · A. Vakulich

97 · Maksym Voronov

61 · P. Filyushin

FC Rostov

4-3-3

34 D. Golikov

87 A. Langovich

22 D. Semenchuk

78 D. Chistyakov

26 D. Khlusevich

21 D. Shantaliy

5 Y. Mikhaylov

16 M. Mukhin

73 Imran Aznaurov

91 Anton Shamonin

7 Ronaldo

Coach · D. Kirichenko

Substitutes

40 · Ygor Nogueira

59 · N. Babakin

27 · D. Prokhin

8 · A. Mironov

18 · K. Kuchaev

10 · I. Komarov

13 · D. Titov

6 · O. Olusegun

99 · T. Suleymanov

79 · K. Korkh

1 · R. Yatimov

4 · V. Melekhin

Our number · cska moscow winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 18:21 · locked at kick-off

57% The market58%

Us57%

~~Market~~58%

We make CSKA Moscow a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.7–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · CSKA Moscow v FC Rostov~~1.70 – 0.84

~~Last six in Cup~~W4 D2 L0 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 1 v 9~~66 v 2

~~The market · CSKA Moscow win~~58% · ours 57%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
CSKA Moscow win	57%	58%	−1
Draw	26%	24%	+2
FC Rostov win	18%	18%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	46%	50%	−4
Both teams to score	47%	50%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	73%	73%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	25%	29%	−4
CSKA Moscow or draw	82%	82%	+1
CSKA Moscow clean sheet	43%	–	–
FC Rostov clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.5%

0123450 9.1 5.7 2.8 1 12.5 12.1 4.7 2 11.3 9.4 3.9 3 6.4 5.3 2.2 4 2.8 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+CSKA Moscow down, FC Rostov across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,300 Premier League matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.2% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

11 previous meetings, 2.45 goals a meeting; 5 of 11 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

CSKA Moscow at home: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). FC Rostov away: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.70 goals for CSKA Moscow, 0.84 for FC Rostov. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 14 Oct 18:20. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

11 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.45

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 11

~~Both scored~~5 of 11

~~Last meetings~~CSK 0–0 FCR · CSK 1–1 FCR · FCR 1–0 CSK · CSK 1–2 FCR

Form · last six in Cup

CSKA MOSCOW

WDWDWW3–2 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 3–0

FC ROSTOV

LLWLLW1–4 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 0–3 · 0–3 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kaluga	3	+7	9
2	FC Rostov	3	+7	9
3	Luki-Energiya	3	+5	9
4	Volna Nizhegorodskaya	3	+4	9
5	Spartak Moscow	3	+6	7
6	Chertanovo Moscow	3	+5	7
7	Volgar Astrakhan	3	+5	7
8	Dinamo Barnaul	4	+4	7
9	Murom	3	+4	7
10	Zenit	3	+4	7
11	Dinamo Kirov	3	+3	7
12	Dinamo St. Petersburg	3	+3	7
13	Znamya Noginsk	4	−1	7
14	Dynamo	3	+3	6
15	Spartak Kostroma	2	+3	6
16	Dinamo Stavropol	3	+1	6
17	FK Sokol Saratov	3	+2	5
18	Druzhba	3	+1	5
19	Krylia Sovetov	3	+1	5
20	FC Krasnodar	4	−1	5
21	Akron	4	−3	5
22	Kristall MEZ	2	+3	4
23	FC Tosno	2	+3	4
24	Torpedo Vladimir	2	+3	4
25	Amkar	2	+2	4
26	Dinamo Vologda	2	+2	4
27	Nosta	2	+1	4
28	Fakel	4	0	4
29	Ryazan	3	0	4
30	KDV	3	−1	4
31	FC Orenburg	3	−1	4
32	2Drots	3	−1	4
33	Akhmat	3	−2	4
34	Ska-khabarovsk	1	+4	3
35	Izberbash	2	+3	3
36	Shinnik Yaroslavl	1	+2	3
37	Chelyabinsk	2	+1	3
38	Nizhny Novgorod	1	+1	3
39	Tekstilshchik	1	+1	3
40	Rodina Moskva	3	0	3
41	FC 10	2	0	3
42	Torpedo Miass	2	0	3
43	Broke Boys	2	−1	3
44	Ilpar	2	−1	3
45	Lokomotiv	4	−1	3
46	SKA Rostov	2	0	2
47	FK Spartak Tambov	2	0	2
48	Baltika	3	−1	2
49	Rubin	3	−5	2
50	Alaniya Vladikavkaz	1	0	1
51	Novosibirsk	1	0	1
52	Zenit Penza	1	0	1
53	Enisey	1	0	1
54	FK Neftekhimik	1	0	1
55	Leningradets	1	0	1
56	Mashuk-KMV	1	0	1
57	Saturn Ramenskoye	1	0	1
58	Shumbrat	1	0	1
59	Angust Nazran	1	0	1
60	Dinamo Vladivostok	1	0	1
61	Metallurg Lipetsk	1	0	1
62	Volga Ulyanovsk	1	0	1
63	Avangard Kursk	2	−1	1
64	Astrakhan	2	−1	1
65	Spartak Nalchik	2	−3	1
66	CSKA Moscow	3	−3	1
67	Cherepovets	2	−3	1
68	Dinamo Makhachkala	3	−4	1
69	Irtysh Omsk	2	−5	1
70	Temp Barnaul	1	−1	0
71	Khimik Dzerzhinsk	1	−1	0
72	Kosmos Dolgoprudny	1	−1	0
73	Kristall	1	−1	0
74	Anri Vladivostok	1	−1	0
75	Bomik	1	−1	0
76	Izhevsk	1	−1	0
77	Nart Cherkessk	1	−1	0
78	Tyumen	1	−1	0
79	Ural	1	−1	0
80	Zvezda St. Petersburg	1	−1	0
81	Arsenal Tula	1	−1	0
82	FC UFA	1	−1	0
83	KAMAZ	1	−1	0
84	Metallurg Asha	1	−1	0
85	Veles	1	−1	0
86	Dinamo Bryansk	1	−2	0
87	FC Sochi	1	−2	0
88	Kvant	1	−2	0
89	Orel	1	−2	0
90	Pobeda	1	−2	0
91	Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod	1	−2	0
92	Rotor Volgograd	1	−2	0
93	Torpedo Moskva	1	−2	0
94	Tver	1	−2	0
95	Chita	1	−3	0
96	Kirovets Voskhozhdenie	1	−3	0
97	Salyut-Belgorod	1	−3	0
98	Strogino	1	−3	0
99	Anzhi	1	−4	0
100	Iskra Smolensk	1	−5	0