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Chertanovo Moscow v Tekstilshchik

Chertanovo Moscow

2–1Full time

Tekstilshchik

Cup · WED 14 OCT · Arena Chertanovo

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 19:45

Chertanovo Moscow 2–1 Tekstilshchik TEKSTILSHCHIK WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Tekstilshchik win~~44%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.764

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.867

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 38 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Tekstilshchik win at 44%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Tekstilshchik 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 30–26–44
2′KICK-OFF Chertanovo Moscow v Tekstilshchik
16′15′ and it is 0–0: Chertanovo Moscow have scored. 0–0 · 29–29–42
16′⚽ GOAL · 15' Chertanovo Moscow 1–0 Tekstilshchik
17′We said Tekstilshchik at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 1–0 · 58–24–18
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' Tekstilshchik win: 44% at kick-off, 18% now
17′THE CALL SWINGS · 17' Chertanovo Moscow win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Tekstilshchik win 18%)
22′🟨 YELLOW · 21' Tekstilshchik
27′🟨 YELLOW · 21' Dmitriy Ivannikov · Tekstilshchik
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 61–24–15
30′🟨 YELLOW · 29' Tekstilshchik
31′🟨 YELLOW · 29' Denis Simonov · Tekstilshchik
32′We said Tekstilshchik at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 61–24–14
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Tekstilshchik win: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
38′Tekstilshchik find the net on 37′. 1–1. 1–1 · 27–36–37
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Chertanovo Moscow 1–1 Tekstilshchik
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Tekstilshchik win: 44% at kick-off, 37% now
40′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Chertanovo Moscow
41′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Egor Kavtrev · Chertanovo Moscow
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Chertanovo Moscow win 25%)
45′HALF-TIME Chertanovo Moscow 1–1 Tekstilshchik
46′SECOND HALF Chertanovo Moscow 1–1 Tekstilshchik
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Tekstilshchik win: 44% at kick-off, 34% now
53′We said Tekstilshchik at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 32%. 1–1 · 23–45–32
53′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Chertanovo Moscow
59′We said Tekstilshchik at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 22–49–29
59′🟨 YELLOW · 53' ramil gainullin · Chertanovo Moscow
64′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Tekstilshchik · On: Aleksandr Gapechkin · Off: Nikolay Ishchenko Corrected
64′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Tekstilshchik · On: Maksim Kriushichev · Off: Dmitriy Ivannikov Corrected
68′We said Tekstilshchik at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 18–58–24
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Tekstilshchik win: 44% at kick-off, 24% now
70′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Tekstilshchik · On: Arseniy Filev · Off: Denis Simonov
75′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Tekstilshchik
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Tekstilshchik win: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
84′We said Tekstilshchik at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 7–85–9
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Chertanovo Moscow 2–1 Tekstilshchik · Egor Kavtrev
86′We said Tekstilshchik at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 0%. 2–1 · 93–7–0
86′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Egor Guziev · Tekstilshchik
86′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Chertanovo Moscow · Michael Grachev · Chertanovo Moscow
86′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Chertanovo Moscow · On: Vadim agafontsev · Off: ramil gainullin
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Tekstilshchik win: 44% at kick-off, 0% now
86′THE CALL SWINGS · 86' Chertanovo Moscow win is now our likeliest result at 93% (was Draw 7%)
87′A goal for Chertanovo Moscow on 85′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 93–6–0
88′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 94–6–0
90′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Tekstilshchik · On: Maksim Kriushichev · Off: Dmytro Ivanisenya
90′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Tekstilshchik · On: Kirill Nikitin · Off: artem mikhailusov
90′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Chertanovo Moscow · On: pulumde yves nikiema · Off: matvey melnikov
90′🟨 YELLOW · 93' Chertanovo Moscow
90′🟨 YELLOW · 96' Chertanovo Moscow
90′🟨 YELLOW · 96' Tekstilshchik
FTFULL TIME Chertanovo Moscow 2–1 Tekstilshchik
FTChertanovo Moscow 2–1 Tekstilshchik · Tekstilshchik win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on Chertanovo Moscow v TekstilshchikBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 16:33 · locked at kick-off

Chertanovo Moscow win29%

Draw27%

Tekstilshchik win44%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 17:00

VenueArena Chertanovo

Line-ups

Chertanovo Moscow

4-4-2

Tekstilshchik

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Chertanovo Moscow

Tekstilshchik

35Days since last match36

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Chertanovo Moscow	3	+5	7
39	Tekstilshchik	1	+1	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Chertanovo Moscow

4-4-2

1 aleksey osipov

13 V. Bartasevich

18 daniil korunov

21 D. Kondrashov

2 ivan polyakov

7 R. R. Gainullin

27 G. Mikadze

17 semen semenov

52 Egor Kavtrev

42 Michael Grachev

9 M. Melnikov

Coach · Ilya Rodkin

Substitutes

15 · V. Agafontsev

88 · Nikita Andreev

16 · danila maniac

45 · pulumde yves nikiema

5 · Sergey Rebrov

Tekstilshchik

4-2-3-1

58 S. Fadeev

66 Y. Petin

27 A. Krutovskikh

74 E. Guziev

23 D. Ivannikov

7 A. Dzhebov

21 D. Ivanisenya

17 A. Mikhailusov

30 D. Simonov

83 N. Ishchenko

91 A. Pomalyuk

Coach · Dmitriy Pyatibratov

Substitutes

95 · M. Volkov

77 · S. Biblik

29 · K. Nikitin

92 · D. Marugin

11 · M. Kriushichev

55 · V. Gapeev

2 · A. Gapechkin

87 · A. Filev

44 · M. Noskov

Our number · tekstilshchik winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 16:33 · locked at kick-off

44% The market48%

Us44%

~~Market~~48%

We make Tekstilshchik a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Chertanovo Moscow v Tekstilshchik~~1.15 – 1.47

~~Last six in Cup~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D4 L0

~~Table places · points 7 v 3~~6 v 39

~~The market · Tekstilshchik win~~48% · ours 44%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · tekstilshchik win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chertanovo Moscow win	29%	25%	+4
Draw	27%	27%	0
Tekstilshchik win	44%	48%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	49%	46%	+2
Both teams to score	53%	50%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	74%	71%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	27%	26%	+1
Chertanovo Moscow or draw	56%	52%	+4
Chertanovo Moscow clean sheet	23%	–	–
Tekstilshchik clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 7.7 10.3 7.8 3.8 1 8.0 12.7 9.0 4.4 2 4.8 7.1 5.2 2.5 3 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Chertanovo Moscow down, Tekstilshchik across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates every club on one scale from 407,336 league, cup and continental matches in 638 leagues up to 14 Oct 2026: each club against its own league, and the leagues against each other through the matches between them, weighting recent matches more.

The two leagues

Chertanovo Moscow play in the Second League - Group 2, Tekstilshchik in the Second League A - Division A Gold.

Venue

Allows for home advantage: Chertanovo Moscow are at home.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two in this competition, so this step adds nothing.

What the model expects

1.15 goals for Chertanovo Moscow, 1.47 for Tekstilshchik. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 14 Oct 16:31. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in Cup since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in Cup

CHERTANOVO MOSCOW

WLLWWD3–1 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 4–2 · 1–1

TEKSTILSHCHIK

WDDDDW3–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kaluga	3	+7	9
2	FC Rostov	3	+7	9
3	Luki-Energiya	3	+5	9
4	Volna Nizhegorodskaya	3	+4	9
5	Spartak Moscow	3	+6	7
6	Chertanovo Moscow	3	+5	7
7	Volgar Astrakhan	3	+5	7
8	Dinamo Barnaul	4	+4	7
9	Murom	3	+4	7
10	Zenit	3	+4	7
11	Dinamo Kirov	3	+3	7
12	Dinamo St. Petersburg	3	+3	7
13	Znamya Noginsk	4	−1	7
14	Dynamo	3	+3	6
15	Spartak Kostroma	2	+3	6
16	Dinamo Stavropol	3	+1	6
17	FK Sokol Saratov	3	+2	5
18	Druzhba	3	+1	5
19	Krylia Sovetov	3	+1	5
20	FC Krasnodar	4	−1	5
21	Akron	4	−3	5
22	Kristall MEZ	2	+3	4
23	FC Tosno	2	+3	4
24	Torpedo Vladimir	2	+3	4
25	Amkar	2	+2	4
26	Dinamo Vologda	2	+2	4
27	Nosta	2	+1	4
28	Fakel	4	0	4
29	Ryazan	3	0	4
30	KDV	3	−1	4
31	FC Orenburg	3	−1	4
32	2Drots	3	−1	4
33	Akhmat	3	−2	4
34	Ska-khabarovsk	1	+4	3
35	Izberbash	2	+3	3
36	Shinnik Yaroslavl	1	+2	3
37	Chelyabinsk	2	+1	3
38	Nizhny Novgorod	1	+1	3
39	Tekstilshchik	1	+1	3
40	Rodina Moskva	3	0	3
41	FC 10	2	0	3
42	Torpedo Miass	2	0	3
43	Broke Boys	2	−1	3
44	Ilpar	2	−1	3
45	Lokomotiv	4	−1	3
46	SKA Rostov	2	0	2
47	FK Spartak Tambov	2	0	2
48	Baltika	3	−1	2
49	Rubin	3	−5	2
50	Alaniya Vladikavkaz	1	0	1
51	Novosibirsk	1	0	1
52	Zenit Penza	1	0	1
53	Enisey	1	0	1
54	FK Neftekhimik	1	0	1
55	Leningradets	1	0	1
56	Mashuk-KMV	1	0	1
57	Saturn Ramenskoye	1	0	1
58	Shumbrat	1	0	1
59	Angust Nazran	1	0	1
60	Dinamo Vladivostok	1	0	1
61	Metallurg Lipetsk	1	0	1
62	Volga Ulyanovsk	1	0	1
63	Avangard Kursk	2	−1	1
64	Astrakhan	2	−1	1
65	Spartak Nalchik	2	−3	1
66	CSKA Moscow	3	−3	1
67	Cherepovets	2	−3	1
68	Dinamo Makhachkala	3	−4	1
69	Irtysh Omsk	2	−5	1
70	Temp Barnaul	1	−1	0
71	Khimik Dzerzhinsk	1	−1	0
72	Kosmos Dolgoprudny	1	−1	0
73	Kristall	1	−1	0
74	Anri Vladivostok	1	−1	0
75	Bomik	1	−1	0
76	Izhevsk	1	−1	0
77	Nart Cherkessk	1	−1	0
78	Tyumen	1	−1	0
79	Ural	1	−1	0
80	Zvezda St. Petersburg	1	−1	0
81	Arsenal Tula	1	−1	0
82	FC UFA	1	−1	0
83	KAMAZ	1	−1	0
84	Metallurg Asha	1	−1	0
85	Veles	1	−1	0
86	Dinamo Bryansk	1	−2	0
87	FC Sochi	1	−2	0
88	Kvant	1	−2	0
89	Orel	1	−2	0
90	Pobeda	1	−2	0
91	Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod	1	−2	0
92	Rotor Volgograd	1	−2	0
93	Torpedo Moskva	1	−2	0
94	Tver	1	−2	0
95	Chita	1	−3	0
96	Kirovets Voskhozhdenie	1	−3	0
97	Salyut-Belgorod	1	−3	0
98	Strogino	1	−3	0
99	Anzhi	1	−4	0
100	Iskra Smolensk	1	−5	0