Baltika v Zenit
BaltikaZenitCup · THU 29 OCT · Rostec Arena
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Zenit are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Baltika 25%, draw 30%, Zenit 45%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 44%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off
Baltika win25%Zenit win45%Kick-offTHU 29 OCT · 18:45
RoundGroup stage · matchday 5
VenueRostec Arena
Match timeline
All events
BaltikaMINZenitEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Baltika
Zenit
Last match: 24 Oct · the Russian Premier League
Last match: 18 Oct · the Russian Premier League
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Zenit a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–1.3.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baltika win | 25% | 24% | +1 |
| Draw | 30% | 27% | +3 |
| Zenit win | 45% | 49% | −4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 47% | −9 |
| Both teams to score | 44% | 51% | −7 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66% | 71% | −5 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | 27% | −8 |
| Baltika or draw | 55% | 51% | +4 |
| Baltika clean sheet | 27% | – | – |
| Zenit clean sheet | 41% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 2 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
Last 10 meetingsEvery competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · Cup this season · since 5 Aug
BALTIKA
ZENIT