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Akhmat v Dynamo

Akhmat

1–2Full time

Dynamo

Cup · WED 14 OCT · Akhmat-Arena

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 19:16

Akhmat 1–2 Dynamo DYNAMO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Dynamo win~~43%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.485

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.585

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Dynamo win at 43%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Dynamo 43% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 31–25–44
2′KICK-OFF Akhmat v Dynamo
8′SUBSTITUTION · 5' Dynamo · On: Nicolas Marichal · Off: Aleksandr Kutitskiy
45′We said Dynamo at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 74%. 0–1 · 7–19–74
45′A goal for Dynamo on 45′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 7–19–74
45′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 0–1 · 7–19–74
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Akhmat 0–1 Dynamo
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Dynamo win: 43% at kick-off, 74% now
45′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Akhmat
45′HALF-TIME Akhmat 0–1 Dynamo
45′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Dynamo
45′SUBSTITUTION · 43' Akhmat · On: Ismael Silva · Off: Júlio Romão
45′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Erald maksuti · Akhmat
45′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Leon Zaydenzal · Dynamo
52′We said Dynamo at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–1 · 6–19–75
52′SECOND HALF Akhmat 0–1 Dynamo
60′Akhmat have had 7.0 attempts to 2.0 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 4–18–78
63′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Akhmat
67′We said Dynamo at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 81%. 0–1 · 3–17–81
67′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Dynamo · On: Konstantin Tyukavin · Off: Ivan Sergeev
67′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Dynamo · On: Yaroslav Gladyshev · Off: Josue Casimir
67′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Dynamo · On: Bitello · Off: Maximiliano Gutierrez
67′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Turpal-Ali Ibishev · Akhmat
68′8.0 shots for Akhmat, 3.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–1 · 3–16–81
70′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Akhmat · On: Maksim Sidorov · Off: Erald maksuti
70′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Akhmat · On: Egas Cacintura · Off: Manuel Keliano
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Dynamo win: 43% at kick-off, 83% now
76′We said Dynamo at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 86%. 0–1 · 1–13–86
81′We said Dynamo at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–1 · 1–9–90
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Dynamo win: 43% at kick-off, 93% now
88′We said Dynamo at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
90′90′ and it is 1–1: Akhmat have scored. 1–1 · 4–91–5
90′Dynamo find the net on 90′. 1–2. 1–2 · 0–4–96
90′3 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 0–4–96
90′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Dynamo · On: Danil Glebov · Off: Viktor Okishor
90′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Akhmat · On: Mohamed Konate · Off: Kirill Shchetinin
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Akhmat 1–1 Dynamo
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Dynamo win: 43% at kick-off, 5% now
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Draw is now our likeliest result at 91% (was Dynamo win 5%)
90′GOAL DISALLOWED · 90' Akhmat
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Dynamo win: 43% at kick-off, 96% now
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Dynamo win is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Draw 4%)
90′⚽ GOAL · 93' Akhmat 1–2 Dynamo
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Akhmat 1–2 Dynamo
FTFULL TIME Akhmat 1–2 Dynamo
FTAkhmat 1–2 Dynamo · Dynamo win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on Akhmat v DynamoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 16:02 · locked at kick-off

Akhmat win30%

Draw27%

Dynamo win43%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 16:30

VenueAkhmat-Arena

Line-ups

Akhmat

4-2-3-1

Dynamo

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Akhmat

Dynamo

41Days since last match41

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Dynamo	3	+3	6
33	Akhmat	3	−2	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Akhmat

4-2-3-1

71 R. Mitsaev

6 K. Sidibé

4 T. Ibishev

5 K. Cake

8 M. Bogosavac

42 Manuel Keliano

18 Júlio Romão

76 Patrik Veller

10 K. Shchetinin

7 L. Sadulaev

77 G. Melkadze

Coach · S. Cherchesov

Substitutes

81 · M. Sidorov

90 · O. Ndong

13 · M. Konaté

54 · kirill kistenev

23 · G. Kenzhebek

97 · A. Kasadzhikov

70 · A. Gadzhiev

87 · A. R. Elberdov

17 · Egas Cacintura

1 · V. Ulyanov

11 · Ismael Silva Lima

Dynamo

4-3-3

31 I. Leshchuk

56 L. Zaydenzal

50 A. Kutitskiy

6 R. Fernández

8 Rubens

21 A. Miranchuk

60 T. Marinkin

88 V. Okishor

77 J. Casimir

33 I. Sergeev

28 M. Gutiérrez

Coach · S. Schwarz

Substitutes

70 · K. Tyukavin

1 · K. Rasulov

11 · Arthur Gomes

10 · Bitello

57 · David Ricardo

74 · D. Fomin

91 · Y. Gladyshev

15 · D. Glebov

99 · A. Lunev

2 · N. Marichal

Our number · dynamo winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 16:02 · locked at kick-off

43% The market38%

Us43%

~~Market~~38%

We make Dynamo a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Akhmat v Dynamo~~1.24 – 1.54

~~Last six in Cup~~W2 D3 L1 · W6 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 4 v 6~~33 v 14

~~The market · Dynamo win~~38% · ours 43%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · dynamo win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 36% to 37% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Akhmat win	30%	34%	−5
Draw	27%	28%	−1
Dynamo win	43%	38%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	52%	52%	0
Both teams to score	56%	57%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	77%	75%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	30%	33%	−2
Akhmat or draw	57%	62%	−5
Akhmat clean sheet	22%	–	–
Dynamo clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 7.4 8.6 7.3 3.8 1 6.7 12.7 8.9 4.6 2 4.8 7.3 5.5 2.9 3 2.0 3.0 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Akhmat down, Dynamo across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,300 Premier League matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.2% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Akhmat at home: 2.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Dynamo away: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.24 goals for Akhmat, 1.54 for Dynamo. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 14 Oct 16:01. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~AKH 2–1 DYN · DYN 2–2 AKH · AKH 1–1 DYN · DYN 4–2 AKH

Form · last six in Cup

AKHMAT

WDDWLD4–1 · 3–3 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 0–2 · 0–0

DYNAMO

WWWWWW3–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kaluga	3	+7	9
2	FC Rostov	3	+7	9
3	Luki-Energiya	3	+5	9
4	Volna Nizhegorodskaya	3	+4	9
5	Spartak Moscow	3	+6	7
6	Chertanovo Moscow	3	+5	7
7	Volgar Astrakhan	3	+5	7
8	Dinamo Barnaul	4	+4	7
9	Murom	3	+4	7
10	Zenit	3	+4	7
11	Dinamo Kirov	3	+3	7
12	Dinamo St. Petersburg	3	+3	7
13	Znamya Noginsk	4	−1	7
14	Dynamo	3	+3	6
15	Spartak Kostroma	2	+3	6
16	Dinamo Stavropol	3	+1	6
17	FK Sokol Saratov	3	+2	5
18	Druzhba	3	+1	5
19	Krylia Sovetov	3	+1	5
20	FC Krasnodar	4	−1	5
21	Akron	4	−3	5
22	Kristall MEZ	2	+3	4
23	FC Tosno	2	+3	4
24	Torpedo Vladimir	2	+3	4
25	Amkar	2	+2	4
26	Dinamo Vologda	2	+2	4
27	Nosta	2	+1	4
28	Fakel	4	0	4
29	Ryazan	3	0	4
30	KDV	3	−1	4
31	FC Orenburg	3	−1	4
32	2Drots	3	−1	4
33	Akhmat	3	−2	4
34	Ska-khabarovsk	1	+4	3
35	Izberbash	2	+3	3
36	Shinnik Yaroslavl	1	+2	3
37	Chelyabinsk	2	+1	3
38	Nizhny Novgorod	1	+1	3
39	Tekstilshchik	1	+1	3
40	Rodina Moskva	3	0	3
41	FC 10	2	0	3
42	Torpedo Miass	2	0	3
43	Broke Boys	2	−1	3
44	Ilpar	2	−1	3
45	Lokomotiv	4	−1	3
46	SKA Rostov	2	0	2
47	FK Spartak Tambov	2	0	2
48	Baltika	3	−1	2
49	Rubin	3	−5	2
50	Alaniya Vladikavkaz	1	0	1
51	Novosibirsk	1	0	1
52	Zenit Penza	1	0	1
53	Enisey	1	0	1
54	FK Neftekhimik	1	0	1
55	Leningradets	1	0	1
56	Mashuk-KMV	1	0	1
57	Saturn Ramenskoye	1	0	1
58	Shumbrat	1	0	1
59	Angust Nazran	1	0	1
60	Dinamo Vladivostok	1	0	1
61	Metallurg Lipetsk	1	0	1
62	Volga Ulyanovsk	1	0	1
63	Avangard Kursk	2	−1	1
64	Astrakhan	2	−1	1
65	Spartak Nalchik	2	−3	1
66	CSKA Moscow	3	−3	1
67	Cherepovets	2	−3	1
68	Dinamo Makhachkala	3	−4	1
69	Irtysh Omsk	2	−5	1
70	Temp Barnaul	1	−1	0
71	Khimik Dzerzhinsk	1	−1	0
72	Kosmos Dolgoprudny	1	−1	0
73	Kristall	1	−1	0
74	Anri Vladivostok	1	−1	0
75	Bomik	1	−1	0
76	Izhevsk	1	−1	0
77	Nart Cherkessk	1	−1	0
78	Tyumen	1	−1	0
79	Ural	1	−1	0
80	Zvezda St. Petersburg	1	−1	0
81	Arsenal Tula	1	−1	0
82	FC UFA	1	−1	0
83	KAMAZ	1	−1	0
84	Metallurg Asha	1	−1	0
85	Veles	1	−1	0
86	Dinamo Bryansk	1	−2	0
87	FC Sochi	1	−2	0
88	Kvant	1	−2	0
89	Orel	1	−2	0
90	Pobeda	1	−2	0
91	Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod	1	−2	0
92	Rotor Volgograd	1	−2	0
93	Torpedo Moskva	1	−2	0
94	Tver	1	−2	0
95	Chita	1	−3	0
96	Kirovets Voskhozhdenie	1	−3	0
97	Salyut-Belgorod	1	−3	0
98	Strogino	1	−3	0
99	Anzhi	1	−4	0
100	Iskra Smolensk	1	−5	0