Unirea Dej v Sânmartin prediction · Liga III

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Unirea DejDrawSânmartin

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Sânmartin 49%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sânmartin are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Unirea Dej 23%, draw 27%, Sânmartin 49%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Unirea Dej v SânmartinBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Unirea Dej win23%

Draw27%

Sânmartin win49%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup 8 · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Unirea Dej

Sânmartin

7Days since last match7

Last match: 23 Oct · Liga III - Serie 8

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Sânmartin	10	−1	13
11	Unirea Dej	10	−12	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sânmartin winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · updated 25 Oct 01:00 · locked at kick-off

49% The market–

Us49%

We make Sânmartin a 49% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Unirea Dej v Sânmartin~~0.94 – 1.51

~~Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 8 this season · since 22 Sept~~W0 D2 L4 · W0 D3 L3

~~Table places · points 5 v 13~~11 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sânmartin win

Published at 53%, 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Unirea Dej win	23%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Sânmartin win	49%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	44%	–	–
Both teams to score	47%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Unirea Dej or draw	51%	–	–
Unirea Dej clean sheet	23%	–	–
Sânmartin clean sheet	40%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 9.7 12.4 9.7 5.0 1 7.6 12.5 8.8 4.5 2 3.9 5.6 4.2 2.1 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Unirea Dej down, Sânmartin across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 704 Liga III - Serie 8 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga III - Serie 8 matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.0% of games this season, across 60 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2020/21 in every competition we cover, 3.33 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Unirea Dej at home: 0.33 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Sânmartin away: 1.17 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.94 goals for Unirea Dej, 1.51 for Sânmartin. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2020/21

~~Goals a meeting~~3.33

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~UNI 0–1 SAN · SAN 3–3 UNI · UNI 1–2 SAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 8 this season · since 22 Sept

UNIREA DEJ

LDDLLL0–2 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 0–1

SÂNMARTIN

DDLLDL2–2 · 1–1 · 0–4 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–5

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Minaur Baia Mare	9	+18	20
2	Sănătatea Cluj	10	+10	19
3	Academica Recea	10	+4	18
4	Crişul Sântandrei	9	+1	16
5	SCM Zalău	9	+7	15
6	Sighetu Marmaţiei	9	+5	14
7	Sânmartin	10	−1	13
8	Viitorul Cluj	9	+5	12
9	Bihorul Beiuş	9	−1	12
10	Unirea Tășnad	9	−11	9
11	Unirea Dej	10	−12	5
12	Transilvania Sport Academy	9	−25	1