Unirea Dej v Crişul Sântandrei prediction · Liga III

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 01:40

Unirea Dej 1–2 Crişul Sântandrei CRIŞUL SÂNTANDREI WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Crişul Sântandrei win~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.312

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Crişul Sântandrei are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Unirea Dej 22%, draw 24%, Crişul Sântandrei 54%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Unirea Dej v Crişul SântandreiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Unirea Dej win22%

Draw24%

Crişul Sântandrei win54%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup 8 · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Unirea Dej

Crişul Sântandrei

6Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · Liga III - Serie 8

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Crişul Sântandrei	8	0	13
11	Unirea Dej	8	−10	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · crişul sântandrei winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 11 Oct 04:05 · locked at kick-off

54% The market–

Us54%

We make Crişul Sântandrei a 54% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.8, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Unirea Dej v Crişul Sântandrei~~1.03 – 1.80

~~Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 8 this season · since 11 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 5 v 13~~11 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Crişul Sântandrei win

Published at 55%, 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Unirea Dej win	22%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Crişul Sântandrei win	54%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	53%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	31%	–	–
Unirea Dej or draw	46%	–	–
Unirea Dej clean sheet	18%	–	–
Crişul Sântandrei clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.1%

0123450 6.9 10.4 9.4 5.7 2.7 1 5.9 11.1 9.3 5.5 2.6 2 3.3 5.5 4.8 2.8 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Unirea Dej down, Crişul Sântandrei across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 692 Liga III - Serie 8 matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga III - Serie 8 matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.1% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Unirea Dej at home: 0.17 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Crişul Sântandrei away: 2.33 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.03 goals for Unirea Dej, 1.80 for Crişul Sântandrei. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~UNI 1–5 CRI · UNI 0–2 CRI · CRI 1–0 UNI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 8 this season · since 11 Sept

UNIREA DEJ

WLLDDL3–0 · 1–5 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 0–3

CRIŞUL SÂNTANDREI

WLDWWL1–0 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Minaur Baia Mare	8	+18	19
2	Academica Recea	8	+2	15
3	SCM Zalău	8	+7	14
4	Sănătatea Cluj	8	+7	13
5	Crişul Sântandrei	8	0	13
6	Viitorul Cluj	8	+6	12
7	Sânmartin	8	+3	12
8	Sighetu Marmaţiei	8	+4	11
9	Bihorul Beiuş	8	−1	11
10	Unirea Tășnad	8	−12	6
11	Unirea Dej	8	−10	5
12	Transilvania Sport Academy	8	−24	1