Sânmartin v Academica Recea prediction · Liga III

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 01:30

Sânmartin 1–5 Academica Recea SÂNMARTIN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sânmartin win~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.826

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sânmartin are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sânmartin 49%, draw 23%, Academica Recea 27%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Sânmartin v Academica ReceaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Sânmartin win49%

Draw23%

Academica Recea win27%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup 8 · matchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sânmartin

Academica Recea

6Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Liga III - Serie 8

Last match: 16 Oct · Liga III - Serie 8

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Academica Recea	9	0	15
7	Sânmartin	9	+3	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sânmartin winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 17 Oct 01:54 · locked at kick-off

49% The market–

Us49%

We make Sânmartin a 49% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sânmartin v Academica Recea~~1.88 – 1.34

~~Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 8 this season · since 18 Sept~~W0 D4 L2 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 13 v 15~~7 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sânmartin win

Published at 47%, 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sânmartin win	49%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Academica Recea win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	61%	–	–
Both teams to score	61%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	83%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	40%	–	–
Sânmartin or draw	73%	–	–
Sânmartin clean sheet	27%	–	–
Academica Recea clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.4%

0123450 5.0 5.1 3.7 1 7.3 10.4 6.5 3.0 2 7.1 8.9 5.9 2.7 3 4.4 5.6 3.7 4 2.2 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sânmartin down, Academica Recea across0–5 goals a side shown (97.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 698 Liga III - Serie 8 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga III - Serie 8 matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.7% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Sânmartin at home: 2.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Academica Recea away: 1.60 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.88 goals for Sânmartin, 1.34 for Academica Recea. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 8 this season · since 18 Sept

SÂNMARTIN

DDDLLD1–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 0–4 · 0–1 · 1–1

ACADEMICA RECEA

LWWWWL2–6 · 7–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Minaur Baia Mare	9	+18	20
2	Sănătatea Cluj	9	+9	16
3	Crişul Sântandrei	9	+1	16
4	SCM Zalău	9	+7	15
5	Academica Recea	9	0	15
6	Sighetu Marmaţiei	9	+5	14
7	Sânmartin	9	+3	13
8	Viitorul Cluj	9	+5	12
9	Bihorul Beiuş	9	−1	12
10	Unirea Tășnad	9	−11	9
11	Unirea Dej	9	−11	5
12	Transilvania Sport Academy	9	−25	1