Minaur Baia Mare v Unirea Tășnad prediction · Liga III

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Minaur Baia MareDrawUnirea Tășnad

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Minaur Baia Mare 61%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Minaur Baia Mare are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Minaur Baia Mare 61%, draw 20%, Unirea Tășnad 18%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Minaur Baia Mare v Unirea TășnadBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Minaur Baia Mare win61%

Draw20%

Unirea Tășnad win18%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup 8 · matchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Minaur Baia Mare

Unirea Tășnad

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Liga III - Serie 8

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · minaur baia mare winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 18 Oct 02:11 · locked at kick-off

61% The market–

Us61%

We make Minaur Baia Mare a 61% chance to win. The model expects 2.2–1.1, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Minaur Baia Mare v Unirea Tășnad~~2.25 – 1.12

~~Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 8 this season · since 19 Sept~~W4 D2 L0 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 20 v 9~~1 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Minaur Baia Mare win

Published at 63%, 61% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Minaur Baia Mare win	61%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Unirea Tășnad win	18%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	64%	–	–
Both teams to score	59%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	84%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	43%	–	–
Minaur Baia Mare or draw	82%	–	–
Minaur Baia Mare clean sheet	34%	–	–
Unirea Tășnad clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.2%

0123450 4.3 3.7 2.4 1 7.6 9.1 4.9 2 8.6 9.2 5.2 2.0 3 6.4 6.8 3.8 4 3.7 3.9 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Minaur Baia Mare down, Unirea Tășnad across0–5 goals a side shown (96.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 700 Liga III - Serie 8 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga III - Serie 8 matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.6% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Minaur Baia Mare at home: 3.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Unirea Tășnad away: 0.83 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.25 goals for Minaur Baia Mare, 1.12 for Unirea Tășnad. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~UNI 2–0 MIN · MIN 1–5 UNI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 8 this season · since 19 Sept

MINAUR BAIA MARE

WWDWWD5–1 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 4–0 · 6–0 · 0–0

UNIREA TĂȘNAD

DLLDWW0–0 · 0–4 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Minaur Baia Mare	9	+18	20
2	Sănătatea Cluj	10	+10	19
3	Academica Recea	10	+4	18
4	Crişul Sântandrei	9	+1	16
5	SCM Zalău	9	+7	15
6	Sighetu Marmaţiei	9	+5	14
7	Sânmartin	10	−1	13
8	Viitorul Cluj	9	+5	12
9	Bihorul Beiuş	9	−1	12
10	Unirea Tășnad	9	−11	9
11	Unirea Dej	10	−12	5
12	Transilvania Sport Academy	9	−25	1