Unirea Alba Iulia v Progresul Pecica prediction · Liga III

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Unirea Alba IuliaDrawProgresul Pecica

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Unirea Alba Iulia 86%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Unirea Alba Iulia are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Unirea Alba Iulia 86%, draw 9%, Progresul Pecica 5%. Over 2.5 goals 80%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Unirea Alba Iulia v Progresul PecicaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Unirea Alba Iulia win86%

Draw9%

Progresul Pecica win5%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup 7 · matchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Unirea Alba Iulia

Progresul Pecica

8Days since last match7

Last match: 16 Oct · Liga III - Serie 7

Last match: 17 Oct · Liga III - Serie 7

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · unirea alba iulia winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

86% The market–

Us86%

We make Unirea Alba Iulia an 86% chance to win. The model expects 3.7–0.8, and 3–0 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Unirea Alba Iulia v Progresul Pecica~~3.69 – 0.77

~~Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 7 this season · since 18 Sept~~W5 D1 L0 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 20 v 10~~1 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Unirea Alba Iulia win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Unirea Alba Iulia win	86%	–	–
Draw	9%	–	–
Progresul Pecica win	5%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	80%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	93%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	63%	–	–
Unirea Alba Iulia or draw	95%	–	–
Unirea Alba Iulia clean sheet	47%	–	–
Progresul Pecica clean sheet	3%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–0 at 9.3%

0123450 1 4.8 3.8 2 8.1 6.1 2.5 3 9.3 7.0 2.8 4 8.3 6.1 2.4 5 6.2 4.4

under 2% 5% 12%+Unirea Alba Iulia down, Progresul Pecica across0–5 goals a side shown (82.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 714 Liga III - Serie 7 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga III - Serie 7 matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.6% of games this season, across 57 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2020/21 in every competition we cover, 5.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Unirea Alba Iulia at home: 3.00 scored, 0.17 conceded a game (last 6). Progresul Pecica away: 0.67 scored, 3.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.69 goals for Unirea Alba Iulia, 0.77 for Progresul Pecica. Most likely score 3–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2020/21

~~Goals a meeting~~5.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~UNI 6–1 PRO · PRO 0–4 UNI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 7 this season · since 18 Sept

UNIREA ALBA IULIA

DWWWWW2–2 · 3–0 · 10–0 · 4–0 · 2–0 · 2–1

PROGRESUL PECICA

LWLWLL0–3 · 6–0 · 1–4 · 2–1 · 0–5 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Unirea Alba Iulia	9	+20	20
2	Timişul Şag	10	+7	20
3	Ghiroda şi Giarmata Vii	10	+6	18
4	CIL Blaj	10	+3	18
5	Unirea Sântana	10	+6	16
6	Cetate Deva	9	+7	15
7	Viitorul Arad	9	+1	15
8	Metalurgistul Cugir	10	−2	12
9	Progresul Pecica	9	−4	10
10	Poli Timisoara 2	9	−11	7
11	Universitatea Alba Iulia	10	−12	4
12	Nera Bogodinţi	9	−21	2