Progresul Pecica v Nera Bogodinţi prediction · Liga III

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Progresul PecicaDrawNera Bogodinţi

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Progresul Pecica 74%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Progresul Pecica are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Progresul Pecica 74%, draw 15%, Nera Bogodinţi 12%. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Progresul Pecica v Nera BogodinţiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Progresul Pecica win74%

Draw15%

Nera Bogodinţi win12%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 11:00

RoundGroup 7 · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Progresul Pecica

Nera Bogodinţi

13Days since last match14

Last match: 17 Oct · Liga III - Serie 7

Last match: 16 Oct · Liga III - Serie 7

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Progresul Pecica	9	−4	10
12	Nera Bogodinţi	9	−21	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · progresul pecica winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

74% The market–

Us74%

We make Progresul Pecica a 74% chance to win. The model expects 3.0–1.1, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Progresul Pecica v Nera Bogodinţi~~2.97 – 1.06

~~Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 7 this season · since 18 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 10 v 2~~9 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Progresul Pecica win	74%	–	–
Draw	15%	–	–
Nera Bogodinţi win	12%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	75%	–	–
Both teams to score	60%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	90%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	56%	–	–
Progresul Pecica or draw	88%	–	–
Progresul Pecica clean sheet	36%	–	–
Nera Bogodinţi clean sheet	6%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.0%

0123450 2.4 2.1 1 5.7 6.1 3.2 2 7.9 8.0 4.3 3 7.4 7.4 3.9 4 5.4 5.4 2.8 5 3.4 3.3

under 2% 5% 12%+Progresul Pecica down, Nera Bogodinţi across0–5 goals a side shown (90.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 714 Liga III - Serie 7 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga III - Serie 7 matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.6% of games this season, across 57 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Progresul Pecica at home: 3.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Nera Bogodinţi away: 0.25 scored, 3.75 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

2.97 goals for Progresul Pecica, 1.06 for Nera Bogodinţi. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 7 this season · since 18 Sept

PROGRESUL PECICA

LWLWLL0–3 · 6–0 · 1–4 · 2–1 · 0–5 · 1–2

NERA BOGODINŢI

LLLDLL1–2 · 0–3 · 0–10 · 0–0 · 1–4 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Unirea Alba Iulia	9	+20	20
2	Timişul Şag	10	+7	20
3	Ghiroda şi Giarmata Vii	10	+6	18
4	CIL Blaj	10	+3	18
5	Unirea Sântana	10	+6	16
6	Cetate Deva	9	+7	15
7	Viitorul Arad	9	+1	15
8	Metalurgistul Cugir	10	−2	12
9	Progresul Pecica	9	−4	10
10	Poli Timisoara 2	9	−11	7
11	Universitatea Alba Iulia	10	−12	4
12	Nera Bogodinţi	9	−21	2