Progresul Pecica v Metalurgistul Cugir prediction · Liga III

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:51

Progresul Pecica 1–2 Metalurgistul Cugir PROGRESUL PECICA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Progresul Pecica win~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.739

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Progresul Pecica are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Progresul Pecica 47%, draw 21%, Metalurgistul Cugir 31%. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 69%.

The AI’s read on Progresul Pecica v Metalurgistul CugirBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Progresul Pecica win47%

Draw21%

Metalurgistul Cugir win31%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup 7 · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Progresul Pecica

Metalurgistul Cugir

8Days since last match8

Last match: 9 Oct · Liga III - Serie 7

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Progresul Pecica	8	−3	10
10	Metalurgistul Cugir	8	−4	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · progresul pecica winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Progresul Pecica a 47% chance to win. The model expects 2.1–1.7, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Progresul Pecica v Metalurgistul Cugir~~2.09 – 1.66

~~Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 7 this season · since 11 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 10 v 6~~8 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Progresul Pecica win	47%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Metalurgistul Cugir win	31%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	71%	–	–
Both teams to score	69%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	88%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	51%	–	–
Progresul Pecica or draw	69%	–	–
Progresul Pecica clean sheet	20%	–	–
Metalurgistul Cugir clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.4%

0123450 2.9 4.1 3.4 1 5.1 8.4 6.6 3.7 2 5.2 8.1 6.5 3.6 3 3.6 5.5 4.5 2.5 4 3.0 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Progresul Pecica down, Metalurgistul Cugir across0–5 goals a side shown (96.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 708 Liga III - Serie 7 matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga III - Serie 7 matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.8% of games this season, across 51 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2020/21 in every competition we cover, 4.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Progresul Pecica at home: 3.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Metalurgistul Cugir away: 2.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.09 goals for Progresul Pecica, 1.66 for Metalurgistul Cugir. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2020/21

~~Goals a meeting~~4.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~PRO 3–3 MET · MET 2–1 PRO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 7 this season · since 11 Sept

PROGRESUL PECICA

LLWLWL1–3 · 0–3 · 6–0 · 1–4 · 2–1 · 0–5

METALURGISTUL CUGIR

LDWLDL0–1 · 2–2 · 3–0 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Unirea Alba Iulia	9	+20	20
2	CIL Blaj	8	+6	17
3	Timişul Şag	8	+5	17
4	Unirea Sântana	8	+9	15
5	Cetate Deva	9	+7	15
6	Ghiroda şi Giarmata Vii	9	+3	15
7	Viitorul Arad	8	0	12
8	Progresul Pecica	8	−3	10
9	Poli Timisoara 2	9	−11	7
10	Metalurgistul Cugir	8	−4	6
11	Universitatea Alba Iulia	9	−11	4
12	Nera Bogodinţi	9	−21	2