Nera Bogodinţi v Cetate Deva prediction · Liga III

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Nera BogodinţiDrawCetate Deva

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Cetate Deva 72%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Cetate Deva are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Nera Bogodinţi 13%, draw 15%, Cetate Deva 72%. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Nera Bogodinţi v Cetate DevaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Nera Bogodinţi win13%

Draw15%

Cetate Deva win72%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup 7 · matchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Nera Bogodinţi

Cetate Deva

8Days since last match8

Last match: 16 Oct · Liga III - Serie 7

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Cetate Deva	9	+7	15
12	Nera Bogodinţi	9	−21	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cetate deva winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

72% The market–

Us72%

We make Cetate Deva a 72% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–3.0, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Nera Bogodinţi v Cetate Deva~~1.07 – 2.97

~~Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 7 this season · since 18 Sept~~W0 D1 L5 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 2 v 15~~12 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nera Bogodinţi win	13%	–	–
Draw	15%	–	–
Cetate Deva win	72%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	74%	–	–
Both teams to score	60%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	89%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	55%	–	–
Nera Bogodinţi or draw	28%	–	–
Nera Bogodinţi clean sheet	7%	–	–
Cetate Deva clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 7.8%

0123450 2.5 5.7 7.6 7.0 5.2 3.41 2.4 6.4 7.8 6.9 4.9 3.02 3.5 4.3 3.7 2.6 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nera Bogodinţi down, Cetate Deva across0–5 goals a side shown (89.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 714 Liga III - Serie 7 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga III - Serie 7 matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.6% of games this season, across 57 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Nera Bogodinţi at home: 0.40 scored, 1.80 conceded a game (last 5). Cetate Deva away: 2.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.07 goals for Nera Bogodinţi, 2.97 for Cetate Deva. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 7 this season · since 18 Sept

NERA BOGODINŢI

LLLDLL1–2 · 0–3 · 0–10 · 0–0 · 1–4 · 0–1

CETATE DEVA

DLDWWL0–0 · 0–3 · 5–5 · 5–1 · 2–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Unirea Alba Iulia	9	+20	20
2	Timişul Şag	10	+7	20
3	Ghiroda şi Giarmata Vii	10	+6	18
4	CIL Blaj	10	+3	18
5	Unirea Sântana	10	+6	16
6	Cetate Deva	9	+7	15
7	Viitorul Arad	9	+1	15
8	Metalurgistul Cugir	10	−2	12
9	Progresul Pecica	9	−4	10
10	Poli Timisoara 2	9	−11	7
11	Universitatea Alba Iulia	10	−12	4
12	Nera Bogodinţi	9	−21	2