Metalurgistul Cugir v Universitatea Alba Iulia prediction · Liga III

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 01:30

Metalurgistul Cugir 2–1 Universitatea Alba Iulia METALURGISTUL CUGIR WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Metalurgistul Cugir win~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.312

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Metalurgistul Cugir are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Metalurgistul Cugir 54%, draw 22%, Universitatea Alba Iulia 23%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Metalurgistul Cugir v Universitatea Alba IuliaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Metalurgistul Cugir win54%

Draw22%

Universitatea Alba Iulia win23%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup 7 · matchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Metalurgistul Cugir

Universitatea Alba Iulia

6Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Liga III - Serie 7

Last match: 16 Oct · Liga III - Serie 7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Metalurgistul Cugir	9	−3	9
11	Universitatea Alba Iulia	9	−11	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · metalurgistul cugir winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 18 Oct 02:11 · locked at kick-off

54% The market–

Us54%

We make Metalurgistul Cugir a 54% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Metalurgistul Cugir v Universitatea Alba Iulia~~1.93 – 1.17

~~Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 7 this season · since 18 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 9 v 4~~9 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Metalurgistul Cugir win

Published at 52%, 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Metalurgistul Cugir win	54%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Universitatea Alba Iulia win	23%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	59%	–	–
Both teams to score	58%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	81%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	37%	–	–
Metalurgistul Cugir or draw	77%	–	–
Metalurgistul Cugir clean sheet	32%	–	–
Universitatea Alba Iulia clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.2%

0123450 5.2 5.3 3.2 1 8.7 10.2 5.8 2.3 2 8.3 9.3 5.4 2.2 3 5.3 5.9 3.4 4 2.7 3.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Metalurgistul Cugir down, Universitatea Alba Iulia across0–5 goals a side shown (97.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 711 Liga III - Serie 7 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga III - Serie 7 matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.4% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 9 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Metalurgistul Cugir at home: 0.67 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Universitatea Alba Iulia away: 0.67 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.93 goals for Metalurgistul Cugir, 1.17 for Universitatea Alba Iulia. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~9 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~MET 2–1 UNI · UNI 2–2 MET · MET 1–2 UNI · MET 0–3 UNI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 7 this season · since 18 Sept

METALURGISTUL CUGIR

DWLDLW2–2 · 3–0 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 2–1

UNIVERSITATEA ALBA IULIA

DLLLDL0–0 · 0–6 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Unirea Alba Iulia	9	+20	20
2	CIL Blaj	9	+6	18
3	Timişul Şag	9	+4	17
4	Unirea Sântana	9	+9	16
5	Cetate Deva	9	+7	15
6	Ghiroda şi Giarmata Vii	9	+3	15
7	Viitorul Arad	9	+1	15
8	Progresul Pecica	9	−4	10
9	Metalurgistul Cugir	9	−3	9
10	Poli Timisoara 2	9	−11	7
11	Universitatea Alba Iulia	9	−11	4
12	Nera Bogodinţi	9	−21	2