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Metalurgistul Cugir v Cetate Deva

Metalurgistul Cugir

0–2Full time

Cetate Deva

Liga III - Serie 7 · FRI 9 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 01:30

Metalurgistul Cugir 0–2 Cetate Deva CETATE DEVA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Cetate Deva win~~42%

~~The market said~~61%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.516

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.225

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Metalurgistul Cugir win37%

Draw20%

Cetate Deva win42%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 13:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cetate deva winPublished 9 Oct 23:31

42% The market61%

Us42%

~~Market~~61%

We make Cetate Deva a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are 19 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–2.1.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Metalurgistul Cugir win	37%	17%	+20
Draw	20%	22%	−1
Cetate Deva win	42%	61%	−19
Over 2.5 goals	74%	61%	+13
Both teams to score	72%	57%	+15
Over 1.5 goals	89%	81%	+9
Over 3.5 goals	55%	40%	+15
Metalurgistul Cugir or draw	58%	39%	+19
Metalurgistul Cugir clean sheet	15%	–	–
Cetate Deva clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 7.7%

0123450 2.6 4.0 4.1 2.7 1 3.9 7.7 7.0 4.7 2.5 2 3.8 6.8 6.4 4.2 2.3 3 2.4 4.3 4.1 2.7 4 2.2 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Metalurgistul Cugir down, Cetate Deva across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 699 Liga III - Serie 7 matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga III - Serie 7 matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.5% of games this season, across 42 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Metalurgistul Cugir at home: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Cetate Deva away: 2.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.93 goals for Metalurgistul Cugir, 2.09 for Cetate Deva. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2020

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 7

METALURGISTUL CUGIR

DLDWLD3–3 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 3–0 · 1–3 · 1–1

CETATE DEVA

DWDLDW1–1 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 0–3 · 5–5 · 5–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CIL Blaj	7	+6	16
2	Unirea Sântana	7	+10	15
3	Unirea Alba Iulia	7	+17	14
4	Timişul Şag	7	+4	14
5	Cetate Deva	7	+6	12
6	Progresul Pecica	7	+2	10
7	Viitorul Arad	7	−3	9
8	Ghiroda şi Giarmata Vii	7	−4	9
9	Metalurgistul Cugir	7	−2	6
10	Poli Timisoara 2	7	−10	4
11	Universitatea Alba Iulia	7	−9	3
12	Nera Bogodinţi	7	−17	2