Unirea Bascov v Vulturii Fărcăşeşti prediction · Liga III

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 01:40

Unirea Bascov 1–0 Vulturii Fărcăşeşti UNIREA BASCOV WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Unirea Bascov win~~51%

~~The market said~~21%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.370

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.978

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Unirea Bascov are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Unirea Bascov 51%, draw 21%, Vulturii Fărcăşeşti 29%. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 68%.

The AI’s read on Unirea Bascov v Vulturii FărcăşeştiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Unirea Bascov win51%

Draw21%

Vulturii Fărcăşeşti win29%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup 6 · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Unirea Bascov

Vulturii Fărcăşeşti

7Days since last match6

Last match: 9 Oct · Liga III - Serie 6

Last match: 10 Oct · Liga III - Serie 6

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Vulturii Fărcăşeşti	8	+2	11
8	Unirea Bascov	8	+2	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · unirea bascov winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

51% The market21%

Us51%

~~Market~~21%

We make Unirea Bascov a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 21%. We are 30 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Unirea Bascov v Vulturii Fărcăşeşti~~2.12 – 1.54

~~Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 6 this season · since 11 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 9 v 11~~8 v 5

~~The market · Unirea Bascov win~~21% · ours 51%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Unirea Bascov win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 21% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Unirea Bascov win	51%	21%	+30
Draw	21%	23%	−2
Vulturii Fărcăşeşti win	29%	55%	−26
Over 2.5 goals	70%	58%	+12
Both teams to score	68%	57%	+11
Over 1.5 goals	87%	79%	+8
Over 3.5 goals	49%	37%	+12
Unirea Bascov or draw	71%	45%	+26
Unirea Bascov clean sheet	22%	–	–
Vulturii Fărcăşeşti clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.5%

0123450 3.0 4.2 3.2 1 5.6 8.4 6.3 3.3 2 5.8 8.5 6.4 3.3 3 4.0 5.9 4.5 2.3 4 2.2 3.2 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Unirea Bascov down, Vulturii Fărcăşeşti across0–5 goals a side shown (96.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 712 Liga III - Serie 6 matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga III - Serie 6 matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.2% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 4.50 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Unirea Bascov at home: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Vulturii Fărcăşeşti away: 2.00 scored, 3.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.12 goals for Unirea Bascov, 1.54 for Vulturii Fărcăşeşti. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~4.50

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~UNI 2–3 VUL · VUL 2–1 UNI · UNI 6–3 VUL · VUL 1–0 UNI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 6 this season · since 11 Sept

UNIREA BASCOV

LWWDDL0–3 · 3–1 · 6–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–1

VULTURII FĂRCĂŞEŞTI

LDLWLW2–4 · 2–2 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 2–3 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin	8	+14	19
2	Minerul Lupeni	8	+7	18
3	CSM Targu Jiu	8	+9	17
4	CS U Craiova II	8	+8	15
5	Vulturii Fărcăşeşti	8	+2	11
6	Jiul Petroşani	8	0	11
7	Filiaşi	8	−1	11
8	Unirea Bascov	8	+2	9
9	Oltul Curtişoara	8	−6	9
10	Păușești	8	−4	8
11	Academica Balș	8	−3	6
12	Petrolul Hartiesti	8	−28	0