Unirea Bascov v Filiaşi prediction · Liga III

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Unirea BascovDrawFiliaşi

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Unirea Bascov 50%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Unirea Bascov are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Unirea Bascov 50%, draw 24%, Filiaşi 26%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Unirea Bascov v FiliaşiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Unirea Bascov win50%

Draw24%

Filiaşi win26%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup 6 · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Unirea Bascov

Filiaşi

14Days since last match7

Last match: 16 Oct · Liga III - Serie 6

Last match: 23 Oct · Liga III - Serie 6

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Filiaşi	10	+2	15
7	Unirea Bascov	9	+3	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · unirea bascov winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · updated 24 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

50% The market–

Us50%

We make Unirea Bascov a 50% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Unirea Bascov v Filiaşi~~1.74 – 1.18

~~Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 6 this season · since 18 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 12 v 15~~7 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Unirea Bascov win

Published at 51%, 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Unirea Bascov win	50%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Filiaşi win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	55%	–	–
Both teams to score	56%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	34%	–	–
Unirea Bascov or draw	74%	–	–
Unirea Bascov clean sheet	32%	–	–
Filiaşi clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.9%

0123450 6.2 6.5 3.9 1 9.4 10.9 6.3 2.6 2 8.0 9.0 5.3 2.2 3 4.7 5.3 3.1 4 2.1 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Unirea Bascov down, Filiaşi across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 721 Liga III - Serie 6 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga III - Serie 6 matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.6% of games this season, across 57 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2020/21 in every competition we cover, 2.57 goals a meeting; 3 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Unirea Bascov at home: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Filiaşi away: 1.33 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.74 goals for Unirea Bascov, 1.18 for Filiaşi. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2020/21

~~Goals a meeting~~2.57

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 7

~~Both scored~~4 of 7

~~Last meetings~~FIL 3–1 UNI · UNI 2–0 FIL · FIL 2–1 UNI · FIL 2–0 UNI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 6 this season · since 18 Sept

UNIREA BASCOV

WWDDLW3–1 · 6–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–0

FILIAŞI

DDLLDW2–2 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin	10	+19	25
2	Minerul Lupeni	10	+4	19
3	CSM Targu Jiu	10	+7	18
4	CS U Craiova II	10	+6	16
5	Filiaşi	10	+2	15
6	Jiul Petroşani	9	+2	14
7	Unirea Bascov	9	+3	12
8	Oltul Curtişoara	9	−5	12
9	Vulturii Fărcăşeşti	9	+1	11
10	Păușești	9	−4	9
11	Academica Balș	9	−3	7
12	Petrolul Hartiesti	10	−32	0