Petrolul Hartiesti v Păușești prediction · Liga III

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Petrolul HartiestiDrawPăușești

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Păușești 52%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Păușești are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Petrolul Hartiesti 26%, draw 23%, Păușești 52%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Petrolul Hartiesti v PăușeștiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Petrolul Hartiesti win26%

Draw23%

Păușești win52%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup 6 · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Petrolul Hartiesti

Păușești

8Days since last match7

Last match: 23 Oct · Liga III - Serie 6

Last match: 24 Oct · Liga III - Serie 6

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Păușești	9	−4	9
12	Petrolul Hartiesti	10	−32	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · păușești winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

52% The market–

Us52%

We make Păușești a 52% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Petrolul Hartiesti v Păușești~~1.27 – 1.91

~~Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 6 this season · since 22 Sept~~W0 D0 L6 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 0 v 9~~12 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Petrolul Hartiesti win	26%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Păușești win	52%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	61%	–	–
Both teams to score	60%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	39%	–	–
Petrolul Hartiesti or draw	48%	–	–
Petrolul Hartiesti clean sheet	16%	–	–
Păușești clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.1%

0123450 4.9 7.9 7.6 4.8 2.4 1 5.2 10.1 9.1 5.8 2.9 2 3.5 6.2 5.7 3.6 3 2.7 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Petrolul Hartiesti down, Păușești across0–5 goals a side shown (98.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 724 Liga III - Serie 6 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga III - Serie 6 matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.3% of games this season, across 60 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Petrolul Hartiesti at home: 0.50 scored, 3.75 conceded a game (last 4). Păușești away: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.27 goals for Petrolul Hartiesti, 1.91 for Păușești. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 6 this season · since 22 Sept

PETROLUL HARTIESTI

LLLLLL0–6 · 0–5 · 1–6 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 0–3

PĂUȘEȘTI

LDWLDW0–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–4 · 1–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin	10	+19	25
2	Minerul Lupeni	10	+4	19
3	CSM Targu Jiu	10	+7	18
4	CS U Craiova II	10	+6	16
5	Filiaşi	10	+2	15
6	Jiul Petroşani	9	+2	14
7	Unirea Bascov	9	+3	12
8	Oltul Curtişoara	9	−5	12
9	Vulturii Fărcăşeşti	9	+1	11
10	Păușești	9	−4	9
11	Academica Balș	9	−3	7
12	Petrolul Hartiesti	10	−32	0