Păușești v Academica Balș prediction · Liga III

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

PăușeștiDrawAcademica Balș

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Păușești 45%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Păușești are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Păușești 45%, draw 25%, Academica Balș 30%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Păușești v Academica BalșBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Păușești win45%

Draw25%

Academica Balș win30%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup 6 · matchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Păușești

Academica Balș

7Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · Liga III - Serie 6

Last match: 16 Oct · Liga III - Serie 6

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Păușești	9	−4	9
11	Academica Balș	9	−3	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · păușești winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Păușești a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Păușești v Academica Balș~~1.59 – 1.27

~~Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 6 this season · since 18 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 9 v 7~~10 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Păușești win

Published at 44%, 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Păușești win	45%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Academica Balș win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	54%	–	–
Both teams to score	56%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	32%	–	–
Păușești or draw	70%	–	–
Păușești clean sheet	29%	–	–
Academica Balș clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 6.4 7.3 4.7 2.0 1 9.1 11.4 7.0 3.0 2 7.2 8.7 5.5 2.4 3 3.9 4.7 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Păușești down, Academica Balș across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 721 Liga III - Serie 6 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga III - Serie 6 matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.6% of games this season, across 57 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Păușești at home: 0.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Academica Balș away: 0.60 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.59 goals for Păușești, 1.27 for Academica Balș. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~PAU 2–1 ACA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 6 this season · since 18 Sept

PĂUȘEȘTI

DLDWLD2–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–4 · 1–1

ACADEMICA BALȘ

LLLWLD1–3 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin	10	+19	25
2	Minerul Lupeni	10	+4	19
3	CSM Targu Jiu	10	+7	18
4	CS U Craiova II	10	+6	16
5	Filiaşi	10	+2	15
6	Jiul Petroşani	9	+2	14
7	Unirea Bascov	9	+3	12
8	Oltul Curtişoara	9	−5	12
9	Vulturii Fărcăşeşti	9	+1	11
10	Păușești	9	−4	9
11	Academica Balș	9	−3	7
12	Petrolul Hartiesti	10	−32	0