Oltul Curtişoara v Unirea Bascov prediction · Liga III

Full timeGraded 25 Oct 01:42

Oltul Curtişoara 4–2 Unirea Bascov UNIREA BASCOV WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Unirea Bascov win~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.617

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Unirea Bascov just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Oltul Curtişoara 36%, draw 25%, Unirea Bascov 39%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Oltul Curtişoara v Unirea BascovBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Oltul Curtişoara win36%

Draw25%

Unirea Bascov win39%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup 6 · matchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Oltul Curtişoara

Unirea Bascov

7Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · Liga III - Serie 6

Last match: 16 Oct · Liga III - Serie 6

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Unirea Bascov	9	+3	12
8	Oltul Curtişoara	9	−5	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · unirea bascov winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 18 Oct 02:11 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Unirea Bascov a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Oltul Curtişoara v Unirea Bascov~~1.44 – 1.50

~~Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 6 this season · since 18 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 12 v 12~~8 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Unirea Bascov win

Published at 40%, 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Oltul Curtişoara win	36%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Unirea Bascov win	39%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	56%	–	–
Both teams to score	58%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	34%	–	–
Oltul Curtişoara or draw	61%	–	–
Oltul Curtişoara clean sheet	23%	–	–
Unirea Bascov clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 6.0 8.0 6.0 3.1 1 7.6 11.2 8.1 4.1 2 5.5 7.8 5.7 2.9 3 2.7 3.8 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Oltul Curtişoara down, Unirea Bascov across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 721 Liga III - Serie 6 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga III - Serie 6 matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.6% of games this season, across 57 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Oltul Curtişoara at home: 1.33 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Unirea Bascov away: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.44 goals for Oltul Curtişoara, 1.50 for Unirea Bascov. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~OLT 0–2 UNI · UNI 3–1 OLT · UNI 1–0 OLT · OLT 1–0 UNI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 6 this season · since 18 Sept

OLTUL CURTIŞOARA

LWWLWW1–3 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 2–1

UNIREA BASCOV

WWDDLW3–1 · 6–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin	10	+19	25
2	Minerul Lupeni	10	+4	19
3	CSM Targu Jiu	10	+7	18
4	CS U Craiova II	10	+6	16
5	Filiaşi	10	+2	15
6	Jiul Petroşani	9	+2	14
7	Unirea Bascov	9	+3	12
8	Oltul Curtişoara	9	−5	12
9	Vulturii Fărcăşeşti	9	+1	11
10	Păușești	9	−4	9
11	Academica Balș	9	−3	7
12	Petrolul Hartiesti	10	−32	0