Minerul Lupeni v Păușești prediction · Liga III

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:51

Minerul Lupeni 1–1 Păușești MINERUL LUPENI WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Minerul Lupeni win~~60%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.956

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Minerul Lupeni are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Minerul Lupeni 60%, draw 24%, Păușești 16%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Minerul Lupeni v PăușeștiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Minerul Lupeni win60%

Draw24%

Păușești win16%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup 6 · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Minerul Lupeni

Păușești

8Days since last match7

Last match: 9 Oct · Liga III - Serie 6

Last match: 10 Oct · Liga III - Serie 6

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Minerul Lupeni	8	+7	18
10	Păușești	8	−4	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · minerul lupeni winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

60% The market–

Us60%

We make Minerul Lupeni a 60% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–0.7, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Minerul Lupeni v Păușești~~1.68 – 0.73

~~Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 6 this season · since 12 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 18 v 8~~2 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Minerul Lupeni win	60%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Păușești win	16%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	43%	–	–
Both teams to score	41%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	69%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	23%	–	–
Minerul Lupeni or draw	84%	–	–
Minerul Lupeni clean sheet	49%	–	–
Păușești clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.1%

0123450 9.7 6.6 2.5 1 15.1 10.6 3.9 2 12.4 8.7 3.3 3 7.0 4.9 4 3.1 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Minerul Lupeni down, Păușești across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 715 Liga III - Serie 6 matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga III - Serie 6 matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.9% of games this season, across 51 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Minerul Lupeni at home: 1.33 scored, 0.17 conceded a game (last 6). Păușești away: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.68 goals for Minerul Lupeni, 0.73 for Păușești. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~MIN 4–0 PAU · PAU 1–0 MIN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 6 this season · since 12 Sept

MINERUL LUPENI

WLWLWW3–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 1–0

PĂUȘEȘTI

DDLDWL1–1 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin	9	+16	22
2	Minerul Lupeni	8	+7	18
3	CSM Targu Jiu	8	+9	17
4	CS U Craiova II	9	+6	15
5	Unirea Bascov	9	+3	12
6	Filiaşi	9	−1	12
7	Vulturii Fărcăşeşti	9	+1	11
8	Jiul Petroşani	8	0	11
9	Oltul Curtişoara	8	−6	9
10	Păușești	8	−4	8
11	Academica Balș	9	−3	7
12	Petrolul Hartiesti	8	−28	0