Jiul Petroşani v CSM Targu Jiu prediction · Liga III

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:51

Jiul Petroşani 2–0 CSM Targu Jiu JIUL PETROŞANI WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Jiul Petroşani win~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.442

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Jiul Petroşani are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Jiul Petroşani 46%, draw 26%, CSM Targu Jiu 28%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Jiul Petroşani v CSM Targu JiuBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Jiul Petroşani win46%

Draw26%

CSM Targu Jiu win28%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 16:00

RoundGroup 6 · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Jiul Petroşani

CSM Targu Jiu

7Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · Liga III - Serie 6

Last match: 9 Oct · Liga III - Serie 6

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	CSM Targu Jiu	8	+9	17
8	Jiul Petroşani	8	0	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · jiul petroşani winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Jiul Petroşani a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Jiul Petroşani v CSM Targu Jiu~~1.49 – 1.11

~~Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 6 this season · since 11 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 11 v 17~~8 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Jiul Petroşani win	46%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
CSM Targu Jiu win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	48%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
Jiul Petroşani or draw	72%	–	–
Jiul Petroşani clean sheet	34%	–	–
CSM Targu Jiu clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 8.0 8.3 4.6 1 11.1 11.9 6.6 2.5 2 8.1 8.7 4.8 3 4.1 4.4 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Jiul Petroşani down, CSM Targu Jiu across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 715 Liga III - Serie 6 matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga III - Serie 6 matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.9% of games this season, across 51 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Jiul Petroşani at home: 2.50 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). CSM Targu Jiu away: 2.33 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.49 goals for Jiul Petroşani, 1.11 for CSM Targu Jiu. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~CSM 3–1 JIU · JIU 2–0 CSM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 6 this season · since 11 Sept

JIUL PETROŞANI

LWWWDL0–4 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 5–0 · 1–1 · 1–4

CSM TARGU JIU

DDLWWW1–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 6–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin	9	+16	22
2	Minerul Lupeni	8	+7	18
3	CSM Targu Jiu	8	+9	17
4	CS U Craiova II	9	+6	15
5	Unirea Bascov	9	+3	12
6	Filiaşi	9	−1	12
7	Vulturii Fărcăşeşti	9	+1	11
8	Jiul Petroşani	8	0	11
9	Oltul Curtişoara	8	−6	9
10	Păușești	8	−4	8
11	Academica Balș	9	−3	7
12	Petrolul Hartiesti	8	−28	0