Filiaşi v Petrolul Hartiesti prediction · Liga III

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 01:30

Filiaşi 3–0 Petrolul Hartiesti FILIAŞI WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG3–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Filiaşi win~~79%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.067

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Filiaşi are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Filiaşi 79%, draw 12%, Petrolul Hartiesti 9%. Over 2.5 goals 77%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Filiaşi v Petrolul HartiestiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Filiaşi win79%

Draw12%

Petrolul Hartiesti win9%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup 6 · matchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Filiaşi

Petrolul Hartiesti

7Days since last match6

Last match: 16 Oct · Liga III - Serie 6

Last match: 17 Oct · Liga III - Serie 6

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Filiaşi	9	−1	12
12	Petrolul Hartiesti	9	−29	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · filiaşi winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

79% The market–

Us79%

We make Filiaşi a 79% chance to win. The model expects 3.3–1.0, and 3–0 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Filiaşi v Petrolul Hartiesti~~3.26 – 0.97

~~Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 6 this season · since 18 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W0 D0 L6

~~Table places · points 12 v 0~~7 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Filiaşi win	79%	–	–
Draw	12%	–	–
Petrolul Hartiesti win	9%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	77%	–	–
Both teams to score	58%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	91%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	59%	–	–
Filiaşi or draw	91%	–	–
Filiaşi clean sheet	39%	–	–
Petrolul Hartiesti clean sheet	5%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–0 at 7.9%

0123450 1 5.3 5.1 2.5 2 7.9 7.4 3.6 3 7.9 7.4 3.6 4 6.3 5.8 2.8 5 4.2 3.8

under 2% 5% 12%+Filiaşi down, Petrolul Hartiesti across0–5 goals a side shown (87.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 718 Liga III - Serie 6 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga III - Serie 6 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.9% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Filiaşi at home: 2.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Petrolul Hartiesti away: 0.40 scored, 3.60 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

3.26 goals for Filiaşi, 0.97 for Petrolul Hartiesti. Most likely score 3–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 6 this season · since 18 Sept

FILIAŞI

WDDLLD3–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 1–1

PETROLUL HARTIESTI

LLLLLL2–3 · 0–6 · 0–5 · 1–6 · 0–3 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin	9	+16	22
2	Minerul Lupeni	9	+7	19
3	CSM Targu Jiu	9	+7	17
4	CS U Craiova II	9	+6	15
5	Jiul Petroşani	9	+2	14
6	Unirea Bascov	9	+3	12
7	Filiaşi	9	−1	12
8	Oltul Curtişoara	9	−5	12
9	Vulturii Fărcăşeşti	9	+1	11
10	Păușești	9	−4	9
11	Academica Balș	9	−3	7
12	Petrolul Hartiesti	9	−29	0