CSM Targu Jiu v Vulturii Fărcăşeşti prediction · Liga III

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

CSM Targu JiuDrawVulturii Fărcăşeşti

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:00

Before kick-off · Match result · CSM Targu Jiu 52%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

CSM Targu Jiu are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: CSM Targu Jiu 52%, draw 23%, Vulturii Fărcăşeşti 26%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on CSM Targu Jiu v Vulturii FărcăşeştiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

CSM Targu Jiu win52%

Draw23%

Vulturii Fărcăşeşti win26%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 17:00

RoundGroup 6 · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

CSM Targu Jiu

Vulturii Fărcăşeşti

7Days since last match6

Last match: 23 Oct · Liga III - Serie 6

Last match: 24 Oct · Liga III - Serie 6

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	CSM Targu Jiu	10	+7	18
9	Vulturii Fărcăşeşti	9	+1	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · csm targu jiu winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

52% The market–

Us52%

We make CSM Targu Jiu a 52% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · CSM Targu Jiu v Vulturii Fărcăşeşti~~1.90 – 1.26

~~Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 6 this season · since 22 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 18 v 11~~3 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · CSM Targu Jiu win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
CSM Targu Jiu win	52%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Vulturii Fărcăşeşti win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	60%	–	–
Both teams to score	60%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	39%	–	–
CSM Targu Jiu or draw	74%	–	–
CSM Targu Jiu clean sheet	29%	–	–
Vulturii Fărcăşeşti clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.2%

0123450 5.0 5.3 3.5 1 8.0 10.2 6.2 2.7 2 7.6 9.2 5.7 2.5 3 4.8 5.8 3.6 4 2.4 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+CSM Targu Jiu down, Vulturii Fărcăşeşti across0–5 goals a side shown (98.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 724 Liga III - Serie 6 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga III - Serie 6 matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.3% of games this season, across 60 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 4.67 goals a meeting; 3 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

CSM Targu Jiu at home: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Vulturii Fărcăşeşti away: 1.50 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.90 goals for CSM Targu Jiu, 1.26 for Vulturii Fărcăşeşti. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~4.67

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 3

~~Both scored~~3 of 3

~~Last meetings~~CSM 3–2 VUL · VUL 4–2 CSM · CSM 1–2 VUL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 6 this season · since 22 Sept

CSM TARGU JIU

LWWWLD0–1 · 1–0 · 6–1 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 0–0

VULTURII FĂRCĂŞEŞTI

LWLWLD2–3 · 2–1 · 2–3 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin	10	+19	25
2	Minerul Lupeni	10	+4	19
3	CSM Targu Jiu	10	+7	18
4	CS U Craiova II	10	+6	16
5	Filiaşi	10	+2	15
6	Jiul Petroşani	9	+2	14
7	Unirea Bascov	9	+3	12
8	Oltul Curtişoara	9	−5	12
9	Vulturii Fărcăşeşti	9	+1	11
10	Păușești	9	−4	9
11	Academica Balș	9	−3	7
12	Petrolul Hartiesti	10	−32	0