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CSM Targu Jiu v Unirea Bascov

CSM Targu Jiu

1–0Full time

Unirea Bascov

Liga III - Serie 6 · FRI 9 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 01:30

CSM Targu Jiu 1–0 Unirea Bascov CSM TARGU JIU WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said CSM Targu Jiu win~~49%

~~The market said~~68%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.389

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.153

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

CSM Targu Jiu win49%

Draw24%

Unirea Bascov win26%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 17:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · csm targu jiu winPublished 9 Oct 23:31

49% The market68%

Us49%

~~Market~~68%

We make CSM Targu Jiu a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 68%. We are 19 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.2.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
CSM Targu Jiu win	49%	68%	−19
Draw	24%	20%	+5
Unirea Bascov win	26%	12%	+15
Over 2.5 goals	54%	57%	−3
Both teams to score	55%	47%	+8
Over 1.5 goals	77%	78%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	32%	37%	−5
CSM Targu Jiu or draw	74%	88%	−15
CSM Targu Jiu clean sheet	32%	–	–
Unirea Bascov clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%

0123450 6.5 6.8 4.0 1 9.7 11.3 6.4 2.5 2 8.2 9.1 5.2 2.1 3 4.6 5.1 3.0 4 2.0 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+CSM Targu Jiu down, Unirea Bascov across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 706 Liga III - Serie 6 matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Liga III - Serie 6 matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.4% of games this season, across 42 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

CSM Targu Jiu at home: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Unirea Bascov away: 2.33 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.68 goals for CSM Targu Jiu, 1.16 for Unirea Bascov. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~CSM 3–1 UNI · CSM 3–2 UNI · UNI 3–0 CSM

Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 6

CSM TARGU JIU

WDDLWW3–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 6–1

UNIREA BASCOV

LLWWDD0–2 · 0–3 · 3–1 · 6–0 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin	7	+10	16
2	Minerul Lupeni	7	+6	15
3	CSM Targu Jiu	7	+8	14
4	CS U Craiova II	7	+5	12
5	Jiul Petroşani	7	+3	11
6	Filiaşi	7	0	11
7	Unirea Bascov	7	+3	9
8	Păușești	7	0	8
9	Vulturii Fărcăşeşti	7	−1	8
10	Academica Balș	7	−2	6
11	Oltul Curtişoara	7	−7	6
12	Petrolul Hartiesti	7	−25	0