CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin v Minerul Lupeni prediction · Liga III

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 01:30

CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin 3–0 Minerul Lupeni CS DROBETA-TURNU SEVERIN WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin win~~51%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.360

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.462

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin 51%, draw 26%, Minerul Lupeni 23%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin v Minerul LupeniBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin win51%

Draw26%

Minerul Lupeni win23%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup 6 · matchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin

Minerul Lupeni

7Days since last match6

Last match: 16 Oct · Liga III - Serie 6

Last match: 17 Oct · Liga III - Serie 6

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cs drobeta-turnu severin winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 18 Oct 02:11 · locked at kick-off

51% The market45%

Us51%

~~Market~~45%

We make CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin v Minerul Lupeni~~1.51 – 0.90

~~Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 6 this season · since 18 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 22 v 19~~1 v 2

~~The market · CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin win~~45% · ours 51%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin win The market, margin stripped

Published at 49%, 51% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin win	51%	45%	+6
Draw	26%	28%	−2
Minerul Lupeni win	23%	28%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	43%	50%	−7
Both teams to score	45%	57%	−12
Over 1.5 goals	69%	71%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	23%	27%	−4
CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin or draw	77%	72%	+5
CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin clean sheet	41%	–	–
Minerul Lupeni clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.4%

0123450 9.7 8.1 3.7 1 13.4 11.8 5.3 2 10.0 8.7 4.0 3 5.1 4.5 2.0 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin down, Minerul Lupeni across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 718 Liga III - Serie 6 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga III - Serie 6 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.9% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin at home: 3.00 scored, 0.60 conceded a game (last 5). Minerul Lupeni away: 0.67 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.51 goals for CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin, 0.90 for Minerul Lupeni. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 6 this season · since 18 Sept

CS DROBETA-TURNU SEVERIN

DWLWWW1–1 · 3–2 · 0–2 · 3–0 · 4–0 · 3–1

MINERUL LUPENI

LWLWWD0–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin	9	+16	22
2	Minerul Lupeni	9	+7	19
3	CSM Targu Jiu	9	+7	17
4	CS U Craiova II	9	+6	15
5	Jiul Petroşani	9	+2	14
6	Unirea Bascov	9	+3	12
7	Filiaşi	9	−1	12
8	Oltul Curtişoara	9	−5	12
9	Vulturii Fărcăşeşti	9	+1	11
10	Păușești	9	−4	9
11	Academica Balș	9	−3	7
12	Petrolul Hartiesti	9	−29	0