Academica Balș v Filiaşi prediction · Liga III

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 01:40

Academica Balș 1–1 Filiaşi ACADEMICA BALȘ WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Academica Balș win~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.915

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Academica Balș are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Academica Balș 45%, draw 22%, Filiaşi 33%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Academica Balș v FiliaşiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Academica Balș win45%

Draw22%

Filiaşi win33%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup 6 · matchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Academica Balș

Filiaşi

6Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Liga III - Serie 6

Last match: 9 Oct · Liga III - Serie 6

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Filiaşi	8	−1	11
11	Academica Balș	8	−3	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · academica balș winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 11 Oct 04:05 · locked at kick-off

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Academica Balș a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Academica Balș v Filiaşi~~1.84 – 1.52

~~Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 6 this season · since 11 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 6 v 11~~11 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Academica Balș win

Published at 46%, 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Academica Balș win	45%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Filiaşi win	33%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	64%	–	–
Both teams to score	63%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	84%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	43%	–	–
Academica Balș or draw	67%	–	–
Academica Balș clean sheet	23%	–	–
Filiaşi clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.6%

0123450 4.2 5.6 4.2 2.2 1 6.7 9.6 7.0 3.6 2 5.9 8.3 6.1 3.1 3 3.6 5.1 3.7 4 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Academica Balș down, Filiaşi across0–5 goals a side shown (97.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 712 Liga III - Serie 6 matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga III - Serie 6 matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.2% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Academica Balș at home: 2.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 3). Filiaşi away: 1.17 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.84 goals for Academica Balș, 1.52 for Filiaşi. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ACA 5–1 FIL · FIL 0–1 ACA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 6 this season · since 11 Sept

ACADEMICA BALȘ

WLLLWL5–0 · 1–3 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 3–2 · 1–2

FILIAŞI

WWDDLL4–2 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	CS Drobeta-Turnu Severin	8	+14	19
2	Minerul Lupeni	8	+7	18
3	CSM Targu Jiu	8	+9	17
4	CS U Craiova II	8	+8	15
5	Vulturii Fărcăşeşti	8	+2	11
6	Jiul Petroşani	8	0	11
7	Filiaşi	8	−1	11
8	Unirea Bascov	8	+2	9
9	Oltul Curtişoara	8	−6	9
10	Păușești	8	−4	8
11	Academica Balș	8	−3	6
12	Petrolul Hartiesti	8	−28	0