Progresul Spartac v Cetatea prediction · Liga III

Full timeGraded 25 Oct 01:42

Progresul Spartac 0–0 Cetatea CETATEA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Cetatea win~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.018

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Cetatea are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Progresul Spartac 33%, draw 18%, Cetatea 49%. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 66%.

The AI’s read on Progresul Spartac v CetateaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Progresul Spartac win33%

Draw18%

Cetatea win49%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup 5 · matchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Progresul Spartac

Cetatea

8Days since last match8

Last match: 16 Oct · Liga III - Serie 5

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Cetatea	9	+6	10
12	Progresul Spartac	9	−3	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cetatea winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

49% The market–

Us49%

We make Cetatea a 49% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–2.0, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Progresul Spartac v Cetatea~~1.60 – 2.03

~~Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 5 this season · since 18 Sept~~W1 D0 L5 · W1 D4 L1

~~Table places · points 6 v 10~~12 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Progresul Spartac win	33%	–	–
Draw	18%	–	–
Cetatea win	49%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	69%	–	–
Both teams to score	66%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	85%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	49%	–	–
Progresul Spartac or draw	51%	–	–
Progresul Spartac clean sheet	14%	–	–
Cetatea clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 8.3%

0123450 7.1 5.5 3.7 1 6.0 7.2 8.3 5.6 2.9 2 3.6 6.7 6.5 4.4 2.3 3 3.6 3.5 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Progresul Spartac down, Cetatea across0–5 goals a side shown (96.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 693 Liga III - Serie 5 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga III - Serie 5 matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.1% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 5.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Progresul Spartac at home: 2.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Cetatea away: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.60 goals for Progresul Spartac, 2.03 for Cetatea. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 4

~~Both scored~~4 of 4

~~Last meetings~~CET 6–2 PRO · PRO 1–2 CET · PRO 2–2 CET · CET 2–3 PRO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 5 this season · since 18 Sept

PROGRESUL SPARTAC

LLWLLL0–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–2

CETATEA

DWDDLD2–2 · 3–1 · 3–3 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Omega Sport	9	+6	21
2	LPS HD Clinceni	10	+11	20
3	Alexandria	10	+4	18
4	Dunărea 2020 Giurgiu	9	+8	17
5	Dinamo Bucureşti II	9	−3	12
6	Progresul Mogosoaia	9	−4	12
7	Axi Adunații-Copăceni	10	−10	12
8	Cetatea	9	+6	10
9	Oxigen Bucuresti	9	−5	10
10	FCSB II	10	−6	10
11	Voluntari II	9	−4	8
12	Progresul Spartac	9	−3	6