Progresul Mogosoaia v Oxigen Bucuresti prediction · Liga III

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Progresul MogosoaiaDrawOxigen Bucuresti

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Progresul Mogosoaia 49%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Progresul Mogosoaia are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Progresul Mogosoaia 49%, draw 19%, Oxigen Bucuresti 32%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Progresul Mogosoaia v Oxigen BucurestiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Progresul Mogosoaia win49%

Draw19%

Oxigen Bucuresti win32%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup 5 · matchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Progresul Mogosoaia

Oxigen Bucuresti

8Days since last match8

Last match: 16 Oct · Liga III - Serie 5

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Progresul Mogosoaia	9	−4	12
9	Oxigen Bucuresti	9	−5	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · progresul mogosoaia winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

49% The market–

Us49%

We make Progresul Mogosoaia a 49% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.4, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Progresul Mogosoaia v Oxigen Bucuresti~~1.84 – 1.40

~~Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 5 this season · since 18 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 12 v 10~~6 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Progresul Mogosoaia win	49%	–	–
Draw	19%	–	–
Oxigen Bucuresti win	32%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	62%	–	–
Both teams to score	60%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	81%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	40%	–	–
Progresul Mogosoaia or draw	68%	–	–
Progresul Mogosoaia clean sheet	26%	–	–
Oxigen Bucuresti clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 9.1%

0123450 2.6 7.5 4.0 1 9.1 8.3 6.8 3.2 2 6.6 8.8 6.0 2.9 3 4.1 5.4 3.7 4 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Progresul Mogosoaia down, Oxigen Bucuresti across0–5 goals a side shown (98.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 693 Liga III - Serie 5 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga III - Serie 5 matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.1% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Progresul Mogosoaia at home: 1.50 scored, 1.75 conceded a game (last 4). Oxigen Bucuresti away: 1.40 scored, 2.20 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.84 goals for Progresul Mogosoaia, 1.40 for Oxigen Bucuresti. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 5 this season · since 18 Sept

PROGRESUL MOGOSOAIA

LLDDWL0–3 · 0–1 · 3–3 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–5

OXIGEN BUCURESTI

LWLWWL1–2 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Omega Sport	9	+6	21
2	LPS HD Clinceni	10	+11	20
3	Alexandria	10	+4	18
4	Dunărea 2020 Giurgiu	9	+8	17
5	Dinamo Bucureşti II	9	−3	12
6	Progresul Mogosoaia	9	−4	12
7	Axi Adunații-Copăceni	10	−10	12
8	Cetatea	9	+6	10
9	Oxigen Bucuresti	9	−5	10
10	FCSB II	10	−6	10
11	Voluntari II	9	−4	8
12	Progresul Spartac	9	−3	6