Oxigen Bucuresti v Alexandria prediction · Liga III

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Oxigen BucurestiDrawAlexandria

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Alexandria 44%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Alexandria are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Oxigen Bucuresti 34%, draw 21%, Alexandria 44%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Oxigen Bucuresti v AlexandriaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Oxigen Bucuresti win34%

Draw21%

Alexandria win44%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup 5 · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Oxigen Bucuresti

Alexandria

7Days since last match8

Last match: 24 Oct · Liga III - Serie 5

Last match: 23 Oct · Liga III - Serie 5

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Alexandria	10	+4	18
9	Oxigen Bucuresti	9	−5	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · alexandria winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Alexandria a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.5, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Oxigen Bucuresti v Alexandria~~1.31 – 1.53

~~Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 5 this season · since 22 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 10 v 18~~9 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Oxigen Bucuresti win	34%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Alexandria win	44%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	54%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	32%	–	–
Oxigen Bucuresti or draw	56%	–	–
Oxigen Bucuresti clean sheet	22%	–	–
Alexandria clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 10.7%

0123450 4.6 10.7 6.9 3.6 1 9.4 9.8 8.6 4.4 2 5.0 7.3 5.5 2.9 3 2.2 3.3 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Oxigen Bucuresti down, Alexandria across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 697 Liga III - Serie 5 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga III - Serie 5 matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.7% of games this season, across 60 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Oxigen Bucuresti at home: 1.25 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 4). Alexandria away: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.31 goals for Oxigen Bucuresti, 1.53 for Alexandria. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 5 this season · since 22 Sept

OXIGEN BUCURESTI

WLWWLL1–0 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 1–3 · 2–4

ALEXANDRIA

WWWWDL3–1 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Omega Sport	9	+6	21
2	LPS HD Clinceni	10	+11	20
3	Alexandria	10	+4	18
4	Dunărea 2020 Giurgiu	9	+8	17
5	Dinamo Bucureşti II	9	−3	12
6	Progresul Mogosoaia	9	−4	12
7	Axi Adunații-Copăceni	10	−10	12
8	Cetatea	9	+6	10
9	Oxigen Bucuresti	9	−5	10
10	FCSB II	10	−6	10
11	Voluntari II	9	−4	8
12	Progresul Spartac	9	−3	6