LPS HD Clinceni v Progresul Spartac prediction · Liga III

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

LPS HD ClinceniDrawProgresul Spartac

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · LPS HD Clinceni 67%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

LPS HD Clinceni are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: LPS HD Clinceni 67%, draw 15%, Progresul Spartac 18%. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on LPS HD Clinceni v Progresul SpartacBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

LPS HD Clinceni win67%

Draw15%

Progresul Spartac win18%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 13:00

RoundGroup 5 · matchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

LPS HD Clinceni

Progresul Spartac

7Days since last match14

Last match: 23 Oct · Liga III - Serie 5

Last match: 16 Oct · Liga III - Serie 5

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	LPS HD Clinceni	10	+11	20
12	Progresul Spartac	9	−3	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lps hd clinceni winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · updated 24 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

67% The market–

Us67%

We make LPS HD Clinceni a 67% chance to win. The model expects 2.6–1.2, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · LPS HD Clinceni v Progresul Spartac~~2.62 – 1.24

~~Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 5 this season · since 19 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 20 v 6~~2 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · LPS HD Clinceni win

Published at 64%, 67% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
LPS HD Clinceni win	67%	–	–
Draw	15%	–	–
Progresul Spartac win	18%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	73%	–	–
Both teams to score	63%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	88%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	53%	–	–
LPS HD Clinceni or draw	82%	–	–
LPS HD Clinceni clean sheet	30%	–	–
Progresul Spartac clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.6%

0123450 4.2 1 7.1 5.9 4.4 2 7.2 8.6 5.3 2.3 3 6.1 7.2 4.4 4 4.0 4.7 2.9 5 2.2 2.6

under 2% 5% 12%+LPS HD Clinceni down, Progresul Spartac across0–5 goals a side shown (93.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 693 Liga III - Serie 5 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga III - Serie 5 matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.1% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 2.40 goals a meeting; 1 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

LPS HD Clinceni at home: 2.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Progresul Spartac away: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.62 goals for LPS HD Clinceni, 1.24 for Progresul Spartac. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 5

~~Both scored~~1 of 5

~~Last meetings~~LPS 0–2 PRO · PRO 2–4 LPS · LPS 2–0 PRO · LPS 0–1 PRO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga III - Serie 5 this season · since 19 Sept

LPS HD CLINCENI

WWDLWW3–2 · 5–1 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 3–0

PROGRESUL SPARTAC

LLWLLL0–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Omega Sport	9	+6	21
2	LPS HD Clinceni	10	+11	20
3	Alexandria	10	+4	18
4	Dunărea 2020 Giurgiu	9	+8	17
5	Dinamo Bucureşti II	9	−3	12
6	Progresul Mogosoaia	9	−4	12
7	Axi Adunații-Copăceni	10	−10	12
8	Cetatea	9	+6	10
9	Oxigen Bucuresti	9	−5	10
10	FCSB II	10	−6	10
11	Voluntari II	9	−4	8
12	Progresul Spartac	9	−3	6